I’ve been reading a political biography of Hitler in an effort to better understand Trump and I continue to be startled by how different the two men are. While Hitler was definitely a right place, right time kind of guy, he had the wherewithal to bend history to his will. He actually had something that Trump obviously doesn’t have — the ability to think in the abstract.
Trump’s political instincts are that of a grunt. He knows what plays to be base — he IS the base — and that’s about it. There are some very dark forces at work in the collective psych of the American population and they are so dark and powerful that all Trump does is coast off of the energy generated by whatever the fuck that is going on.
In a sense, Trump has served his political and historical purpose. He’s weakened America’s political norms to the point that ANY Republican — be it Ron DeSantis or Glenn Youngkin — will be America’s first autocrat. All the conditions are there for us to slip peacefully into autocracy and 20 years from now someone going back and forth between the United States and Russia won’t be able to tell any difference on a political basis.
But there’s a problem — Trump is such a fighter that as long as he has air in his lungs, he’s going to do whatever he can to save his own hide. He really wants to be POTUS again, setting up a situation where Trump is the Republican primary and it’s not POTUS, but veep, that is the position that everyone wants so bad. Trump is such an old, fat tub of lard that whomever he picks to be his veep will have a good chance of being America’s Putin.
Of course, there is another issue — Trump could cause a civil war in a variety of ways.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
But there is a problem with such thinking — Trump, unlike Hitler, really isn’t smart enough to do anything as diabolical as do the simple act of telling Red states to leave the Union in an effort to protect him. If he did it, it would be out of extreme desperation caused by his mind being focused by the prospect of going to prison.
The point is — America’s political culture is going to be very bumpy between now and January 205. Something’s gotta give. We can’t keep this up forever. We’re going to fish or cut bait on the fate of our democracy at some point.
To date, Trump has only gone transactional once — on January 6th. And he ony did so because it was personal and he was desperate. Below are three ways that Trump could start a civil war by going transactional.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
The question, of course, is how likely is it that malignant dingus Trump would summon the wherewithal to go transactional sooner rather than later, say, to save his sorry ass from facing any criminal accountability. That is a real mystery. What happened on January 6th was such a specific, simple situation on a cognitive level that to think Trump could summon up the mental acuity necessary to bring the country down via some sort of secessionist crisis is kind of pushing it.
I just don’t think he has it in him. He talks a good talk, but unlike, say, Hitler, Trump is just playing himself. He can’t bend history to his will like Hitler did. As such, for the time being, at least, I think we’re fairly safe. There will be a lot of talk about a civil war, but, in the end, we’ll just slip into autocracy. Millions of wealthy liberals will flee the country and the country will circle the autocratic drain.
As I often mention, they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. As such, the “all at once” part of any Second American Civil War will be when there’s a sudden surge of domestic political refugees as Blues in Red states and Reds in Blue states flee for their personal safety.
If that happens, we’re going to the show — we’re going to have, at a minimum a National Divorce and probably a 2ACW. Of course, this would happen in the context of most of your wealthy liberals simply fleeing the country altogether. It’s already happening, to some extent — wealthy liberals are getting second passports if they can.
So, if the final collapse into civil war happens, you’re going to see a huge amount of wealthy liberals simply leave the rest of the country to its own devices. Meanwhile, those who have the means will simply flee to a state that better suits their political beliefs. This would probably be happening in the context not only of a shit ton of political violence, but either Red or Blue states actively beginning the process of secession. I would also keep an eye on the major conservative media outlets in New York City — and Trump Tower. IF things were really getting really bad, there’s a good chance that there would be a popular revolt in NYC to the point that Fox News, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post might be physically attacked — as would Trump Tower. That would be a clear sign that the shit was hitting the fan.
The big issue is when all of this will happen. Will it happen sooner — when Trump goes transactional to avoid criminal accountability — or will it happen later when Blue states realize they are faced with either bending a knee to MAGA fascism, or bouncing.
But, as of right now, I still don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. Something rather dramatic will have to happen, some sort of catalyst for either side to seriously being the process of a National Divorce. What that might be, I have no idea. But I do know its possible.
In general, however, I think we’re just going to slouch into autocracy with the only wildcard being malignant dingus Trump.
I’m always wrong. Always. But, just for the sake of argument, let’s think about what might happen if Trump was held criminally accountable. Would there be “riots in the streets” as Sen. Lindsey Graham suggests? This is one of three ways that Trump might start a Second American Civil War.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Well, I will admit that the country is on edge. And I will admit that there the conditions are there for severe political violence to happen pretty at any moment. But it takes a lot for even the most bonkers fascist MAGA New Right person to risk life and limb to protect a dingus like Trump. Or, put another way, as much as MAGA New Right people have murdering people like me in cold political blood on the brain, they want a civil war to officially start to do it so they won’t be held criminally accountable.
The events of January 6th were very specific to that moment. It helped a lot that Trump went transactional and told the crowd in front of him that they were going to march down the the Capitol together. (Of course, the shock troops of the Proud Boys were already there, waiting for the rest of the mob to arrive)
So, as such, I think ultimately a lot would rest on what Trump did. It wouldn’t be so much that Trump was indicted or otherwise held accountable, it would be that he went transactional and TOLD the MAGA New Right to burn the country to the ground. Or, even more dire, he might demand that MAGA state legislatures to convene Secessionist Conventions for the specific purpose of putting pressure on the Federal government to protect his sorry ass. Then, things might get out of control and the next thing you know, you have an honest-to-God National Divorce on your hands.
Of course, there is the other option that maybe we might have a 1968-type event, like what happened after Dr. Martin Luther King was murdered, only with white people. There might be some sort of spasm of violence on the part of MAGA New Right cocksuckers.
I honestly don’t know if there would be riots if Trump was held criminally accountable. But I do know that the prospect of such violence is going to be a talking point we hear a lot — A LOT — from the usual suspects of the MAGA New Right going forward.
There is a lot of talk about a civil war in the United States these days, but I think that says more about how the country is on edge than any real prospect of such a violent event. Whenever a country is veering towards a significant change in its political system, there is talk of civil war. And, by definition, that’s sort of what an “anocracy” — which is what the United States is now — is: we’re transitioning away from democracy into an autocracy.
According to Barbara F. Walter, that’s one of the causes of a civil war — if a country in between democracy and autocracy the country is so unstable that if things go wrong, it descends into political violence up to and including an actual civil war.
But, for the moment, I just don’t see the United States have a civil war. There will be a huge amount of chatter from both political extremes about there possibly being one, but, in the end, the American center-Left is just to weak willed. In the end, Blue States will bend a knee to MAGA fascists. Hordes of wealthy American liberals will flee the country to the point that Fox News will replace scary brown caravans at the border with the “brain drain.” So many wealthy American liberals may flee the newly autocratic States that it transforms global culture in a way not seen since the fall of Constantinople. The globe will be awash in American culture and ideals in an unprecedented manner.
All of this, of course, may be happening in the context of the final collapse of the post-WW2 liberal global order. If the United States pulls itself out of NATO and various other places around the world, then a number of regional wars will break out to the point that it will be marketed as WW3. America could align itself with a series of other autocratic states. I could see, maybe, the US, Hungary, Turkey and Russia starting their own NATO-like alliance. Meanwhile, of course, China could do a smash and grab operation against Taiwan.
But the key issue is — we just don’t know what is going to happen. At the moment, the idea of political violence in the United States is totally bonkers. As such, something pretty big would have to change for the type of civil war that I imagine might happen, to happen. I will admit, of course, that the conditions are there for a civil war.
And, yet, I don’t know. Given that it’s probably going to be Blues who start a civil war if there is one, I just don’t see it happening. There is, of course, the issue of Trump. He’s such a malignant dignus that he could, unto himself, start a civil war.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Trump is a very unique historical and political figure. He’s so unique because almost anyone else in his position would not have lost the 2020 election. Anyone with a modicum of abstract thought and gumption would have sealed the deal at some point no later than, say, August 2020.
It’s a testament to how stupid and lazy and Trump is that he waited until the very, very, very last part of the process to try to stay in power. And, what’s more, his entire plot rested on one man — Mike Pence — doing his bidding. He didn’t really have much of a backup plan.
Anyway, the reason why I bring all this up is I — and a lot of other people — are notorious for overestimating Trump’s ability to actually implement all the tyrannical things he obviously is thinking about all the time. So, take the following with a grain of salt — it’s possible that Trump neither has the power I’m assuming he does nor has the mental facilities necessary to think in such a diabolical manner.
An Effort to Stop Criminal Accountability This is the one scenario whereby the MAGA New Right people who keep coming to this Website looking for a sooner-rather-than-later timetable for being able to murder people like me without criminal recourse might happen. If Trump really felt he might, at last, face some criminal accountability, he could very well begin to rant that Red States need to leave the Union because of how unjust it all is. I suppose he might, in general, demand in his usual dog whistle kind of way general political violence, but I doubt it. When you have an entire party — the Republican Party –with a cult-like devotion to you, why go for general violence when you can get entire states to leave the Union at your behest?
A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. An away we go.
A 2024 Clusterfuck — MAGA Counter Revolution This endgame was two parts to it. It could be that at some point in late 2024, after Election Day, it will be obvious to Blue States that the election was stolen and they have no recourse but to begin the process of leaving the Union. By the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, we are in a full fledged Secession Crisis. The other possibility is that Trump wins outright — even though he’ll cheat no matter what — and by late January it becomes clear that Trump’s second term agenda is so fascist and radical that Blue States begin to leave the Union.
Having said all that, I don’t think we’re going to have any sort of civil war. I think Blue states will ultimately bend a knee and we will become a MAGA autocracy. The only question then, of course, will be if we stop around Hungary politically, or if we endup somewhere closer to be a Russia / Nazi Germany clone.
Only time will tell. Good luck.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
In general terms, Great Britain is Europe’s last multi-ethnic nation. I’m no expert on British politics, but the news that heating prices in the UK will jump a whopping 80% this winter is cause for alarm. That’s the stuff of revolutions. In fact, revolutions typically happen in a country when there is a problem with basic necessities — like heating.
So, this particular scenario writes itself. Britain has its first serious cold snap and millions of Brits aren’t able to properly heat their homes. They freak out and hit the streets. Then, the general divisions in the UK among the different ethnic groups begin to become more noticeable. What’s worse, the general unease the population feels about the imminent, inevitable demise of Queen Elizabeth also starts to come into play.
But, let me be clear — I’m always wrong. Always. As such, it’s possible that despite the shock to the British political system, they will use the old British stiff upper lip to muddle through.
And, yet, one reason why I’m concerned about the fate of Great Britain is the United States and Great Britain historically are in lock step. Major political trends can happen in one and then show up in the other after a few years. In the 1970s, there was the Thatcher Revolution and then in 1981 there was the Reagan Revolution. The US had Trump and then the UK got Boris Johnson.
I am therefore worried that if something dramatic happens in Great Britain — a Great Reset, if you will — then a similar instability will occur here in the United States. A lot of macro trends are coming to a head in the United States in the general late 2024, early 2025 timeframe.
If I was writing for VOX, I would, at this point, give you an explainer about What It All Means and how you can protect you and your family. But, lulz, I have no idea. Good luck.
I don’t know anything about anything. I’m often, if not usually, wrong. But here, nonetheless, is my hot take on the question of the moment — “Will Trump be indicted?”
No. I don’t think he will be. I think, in the end, this will be just another Bad Thing that is baked into the cake when it comes to Trump. I say this because it’s clear that Republicans have done a gut check and since the base is fired up about what happend — and not in a good way — they have decided to hunker down and cling to Trump even tighter.
Now, remember, Trump is a very complex historical figure because not only is he just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage, he also refuses to get out of the way to DeSantis can finish the job he started. What’s more, even if he did get out of the way, then, like I said, we’re doomed in a different way. DeSantis (or someone like him) will become America’s first autocrat and that will be that. We’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why DeSantis is still president. We’ll also wonder why we have to use VPN to watch the BBC talk about how horrible things are in the United States.
The other alternative, obviously, is civil war. And if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee then the likelihood of a National Divorce grows dramatically because he always says the “quiet part out loud.” He will cheat to win the 2024 election, even if he doesn’t have to. Trump is such a chaos agent that there are not one but three ways he could start a civil war.
If he got indicted, I could totally see him go transactional and demand Red states begin the process of leaving the Union. Texas’ autocratic state government already talks like it has one foot out the door as it is. Just by calling up a Secessionist Convention, Texas would spook the Federal government to the point that they would ultimately shy away from doing anything with Trump criminally.
Meanwhile, there remains the lingering possibility that Trump will demand to be the Speaker of the House should Republicans take Congress in the fall. Even though I’m notorious for overestimating Trump’s mental abilities, even with his political grunt tendencies, I could see him use the threat of Red States leaving the Union as a bludgeon against Blue Senators when the inevitable impeachment trials of Biden and Harris happen.
The third way Trump might personally start a Second American Civil War would be as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. Either he so brazenly steals the election that Blue States begin to leave the Union or his second term agenda is so radical that that, unto itself, is enough to push Blue states — starting with California — out of the Union.
So, no, I don’t think Trump will be held accountable in any way for stealing America’s top secrets. We’re careening towards a very, very dark fate of either civil war or autocracy and this particular severe crisis will be just among the top five or so worst things Trump has done since 2015.
So, once Trump or DeSantis is POTUS in 2025, what’s going on with CNN right now is going to happen to all American media. The shift will happen subtly, behind the scenes and under the rubric of “objectivity.” But will happen. And what’s probably going to tip the average person of that something has changed will be a mistake or overreach on the part of the autocrat.
The most obvious place for this to happen would be late night TV. While CNN is lurching towards MAGA via “objectivity” late night hosts could just be purged in a rather abrupt manner — probably because the autocrat threatens the broadcast licenses of their networks.
But the issue is — because form follows function there is going to be a point in the near future when the only way Americans can get any news that the autocrat doesn’t want them to know about will be to watch the BBC. The only way this isn’t going to happen, of course, is if there’s a civil war. Then that’s a whole different set of changes.
And, yet, again, the point is — America is careening towards autocracy at an alarming rate. We really are an anocracy and we’re far less stable than people would like to admit.
It will be shenanigans like what’s happening with CNN that is how freedom of speech will initially be curtailed — it will be plutocrats working within the system who chill free speech, not the government doing it. Though, obviously, that will come soon enough once the MAGA SCOTUS overturns New York Times V. Sullivan.
First, let me be very clear — I just don’t see the United States having a Second Civil War. All the talk about one says more about how on edge the nation is as we transition into an autocracy. Talk of civil war is part of the transition into an autocracy. It happened with Germany when the Nazis took over and it’s happening today as the fascist MAGA are ascendant.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, yet, since there is a greater-than-zero chance that there might be a Second American Civil War, let me give you my reasoning why it will be Blues, not Reds who start it should it happen.
First and foremost, MAGA is politically ascendant. As part of that, they are doing everything in their power to sabotage American democracy in sort of a slow moving coup that, if successful, would cause the United States to turn into an autocracy through the corruption of the administration of elections. And, what’s more, if SCOTUS approves the dubious legal concept of “independent legislatures” the coup will be complete. MAGA state legislatures will be given free reign to completely ignore the will of the people if necessary to make sure a MAGA presidential candidate wins.
So, the theory of the case by civil war expert Barbara F. Walter is this: MAGA no longer believes in American democracy and they see themselves as “real” America to the point that they will become something like Colombia’s FARC and start to blow shit up around the country on a regular basis because they hold Blues in such distain.
Now, there is some merit to this idea — she is the expert, after all. But it also misses the point. Political tradition in the United States would suggest that if we’re going to do something as dramatic as a “National Divorce” it will be at the state level and it will have a thin veneer of legalism to it. While, yes, it’s very possible that between now and January 2025 there will be a significant increase in political violence across the country. That’s a real possibility and I can see how that might be marketed as a “civil war.”
And, yet.
It seems me that no matter which side demands a “National Divorce,” Blue or Red, it will be initiated at the state level. Doing so would give any effort to have a National Divorce the basic building blocks of a nation. Government. Military. Leadership. Taxation. It just doesn’t make any sense to me that we would collapse into anarchy — even though it definitely feels as though we’re doing just that at times.
There is a real possibility that if Trump feels he is going to get indicted and potentially go to prison, that he will demand Red states leave the Union to put pressure on the Federal government to lay off. He’s so bonkers at this point that anything is possible. But as I keep saying, from what I’m reading of Hitler and his ascent there’s a huge different between he and Trump — Hitler was willing to use violence, to go transactional to get his aims.
Trump, meanwhile, is so lazy and such a wussy that he’s only gone transactional once and that was January 6th. Otherwise, Trump has been all talk and violent dog whistles. This comes from how Trump is not a historical “Great Man” but rather just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian autocratic rage. And, in a strange way, this part of Trump’s personality has given us a little bit a breathing room that we would not have otherwise if Trump was more like Hitler.
So, barring Trump going transactional and demanding Red states leave the Union to save his own ass, I think if we have a civil war it’s going to happen in late 2024, early 2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
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