Tag: Texit

Give All The Russian Spies Who May Read This Blog, I Find Any Serious Homegrown ‘Secession’ Talk Dubious

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t KNOW that Russian — and Chinese — spies read this blog, but sometimes, some of the things I see in my Webstats make me scratch my head. Anyway, I suspect much of the “Texit” talk on social media at the moment is just talk on the part of Russian paid trolls.

We aren’t near the tipping point that will happen either in late 2024 when Trump loses or at some point after January 2025 if Trump wins and is deposed for being a bonkers MAGA tyrant.

Otherwise, I think we can just cool it with any sort of secession talk on the part of Texas — or anyone else.

How Seriously Should We Take ‘Texit?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While we’re slowly reaching a tipping point whereby Texas may be the first to leave the Union, I have serious doubts about it happening, like, NOW.


So, as such, the timing isn’t right for Texit. We need the passions of the 2024 election to enter the “Silly Season” before such things might become a reality. At the moment, all this Texit talk is just that — talk.

Get back to me when there is suddenly a man rush between Texas and South Carolina to see which one can hold the first Secession Convention. If such a thing happens, it will either be in late 2024 after Trump loses, or sometime in 2025 – 2026 should Tyrant Red King Trump be deposed somehow.

What To Make Of ‘TEXIT’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I write a lot about how I think if there is any sort of National Divorce that it will be Blues, not Reds, who serve the papers. And, yet, here we are with shit like this:

So, here we are. There is actual move towards “TEXIT,” or Texas voting to secede from the Union. I continue to believe that this is just not going to happen unless something really unexpected happens.

I’ve beginning to believe that even if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that Trump will become president without a shot being fired. In fact, the only way I’m beginning to think that the only way this might happen is the following scenario: Trump is the nominee in 2024, but he loses and when he starts to demand a “National Divorce” people take him seriously about it.

Otherwise, it’s a lulz.

Either Trump wins outright and we just slide into some form of autocracy — especially should something happen to him and his veep become POTUS — or he’s the nominee and we become an autocracy that way.

So, in a sense, a lot of things would have to go wrong in a specific way for there to be a National Divorce. The question is — how possible that that specific series of events might happen?

It seems as though we’re still too far out to know one way or another. We don’t know Trump will be the Republican nominee. We don’t know if he will win the 2024 election and we don’t know if Trump loses and starts to rant about civil war if anyone will take him up on it.

A lot of this an issue of the economy. If the United States defaults on debts because we won’t raise the debt ceiling, then that sets up a situation where the economy is doing so badly that an already unstable United States would be primed and ready for strategic political violence.

Another issue is Biden’s age. There are a lot — A LOT — of nightmare scenarios dealing with Biden being out of the picture suddenly at just the wrong moment during the 2024 presidential cycle. I wince even thinking about any such thing happening, but history shows that sometimes once you’re in a crisis a lot of bad things can happen in quick succession.

So, should we take TEXIT seriously? Maybe. But maybe not YET. It could go either way with either there being TEXIT or there being, alternately, being CAXIT.

Things are very much up in the air at the moment.

Second American Civil War: The Electoral College Voting Today & The Prospect Of A ‘Political 9/11’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Today is one of a few days that we kinda know would be a prime moment for the “political 9/11” I keep worrying about. But, to date, I’ve been pretty much totally wrong. I’ve been wrong for number of reasons, among them Trump is just a ding-dong not an autocrat and there’s just not been any stomach in seditionist quarters to actually do the things necessary to provoke a secessionist crisis.

But today — along with January 6th — are obvious days where our current eerie political moment could change dramatically. All that would have to happen is a lot of faithless Electors throwing the election to Trump suddenly. Or, say, Michigan militia groups manage to hurt Electors so they couldn’t even vote.

Or, put another way — if the voting of Electoral College was paused or disrupted because of violence or the threat of violence, that, in itself, might be the crisis necessary to push us into a secessionist crisis. My point is — the American political system is so out of whack, so fragile right now that any extra stress on it will lead to its collapse.

One reason why I know America is in deep trouble is we’ve reached the point when some pretty Far Right concepts are now hurtling towards mainstream acceptance in the Republican Party. The surreal part of all of this is secessionists don’t have any concreate reasons for leaving the Union other than they hate liberal-progressives and woke cancel culture. That’s it. I guess you could say they love the Dear Leader so much they would rather destroy the country than risk living under a Biden Administration, but I still don’t know what, exactly, would be so bad about a Biden Administration that it would be worth destroying the country MAGA says they want to make great again.

And, as I’ve said, MAGA secessionists are completely oblivious about how, in practical terms, they might have some serious problems leaving the Union in the first place. Sure, there are about 15 small population, homogenous states in the center of the country that could probably make a good show of leaving the Union, but that’s it.

I can’t think of a single state of the old CSA that could make a clean break of it. Take Georgia for instance. Not only is Atlanta a major metropolitan area now, but the African American community would rather take up arms against any secessionists than let the state leave the Union for pretty obvious racist reasons.

As such, while I could see any Second American Civil War being a lot longer and a lot bloodier than MAGA could ever possibly imagine — the end result would be the same — they would fucking lose.

I really went on a tangent there. Back to the point — if we can get past today without a “political 9/11” then we’re in the clear until January 6th. If we get pass the Congressional Certification Crisis, then we have the Trump Goes Insane Crisis for much of January.

And, in the end, it could be Trump going insane that leads to the Union collapsing. If Trump goes transactional on Twitter and starts ranting about how Trumplandia needs to be founded, then, well, I guess we’ll have to see how many people take Trump both literally and seriously.

Let’s Talk ‘#Texit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I know it’s “fun” for Red States to talk secession, it all seems rather dumb to me. Not only are Blue States better positioned to win a Second Civil war because they have bigger populations in smaller areas, have bigger economies and better educated people, the whole issue of race makes secession pretty difficult to imagine.

But right now, it’s “Texit” that seems to have caught the popular imagination among some ding-dongs. Let’s look at it.

For me, Texit isn’t viable for a whole slew of reasons. One is, if you wanted to pass it via a popular vote, there are too many patriots and moderates (and liberals!) in Texas for it to come anywhere near passing. And, as I mentioned, the issue of race makes Texit a pipe dream. I just can’t see black people rolling over and letting a fundamentally racist endeavor take place.

So, for Texit to happen, it would have to happen in the context of a broader secession crisis. Some sort of “political 9/11” would have to happen to so enrage Red State governments that they don’t have a popular vote, but rather snap Secession Conventions. There’s a huge swath of states in the middle of the lower 48 that could easily leave the Union under such conditions. And there best bet would be some sort of negotiated, peaceful departure.

Sadly, for them, I just don’t see that happening.

I just can’t imagine the Biden Administration lulzing 17 states or so leaving the Union. There will be blood, as they say. And the states in question are generally so small in population that the U.S. Military would make swift work of them.

And here’s where Texit comes into play.

As a member of the old CSA, a lot of good old boy Texans would go nuts in the passion of the crisis and demand Texas join its “wayward sisters.” It seems to me that rather than leaving the Union, Texas, itself, would implode. It would have its OWN civil war as the Red and Blue communities within it went at it.

So, in the end, Texas wouldn’t be much good to any new Trumplanian Republic because it would be too busy having its own civil war to join in.

And, let me stress this again — I’m from the South and the “Lost Cause” mythos is everywhere here. But the African American community simply isn’t going to allow a new CSA to be born. If MAGA cocksuckers in the old CSA tried to link up with the lily white Trumplandia states in the center of the country, there would likely be a race war.

Or, at least it would get very, very messy.

States like Virginia, Florida…and Texas would implode because of their internal political divisions.

The issue right now is, America is very fragile politically. If there is no catalyst, then it’s possible we’ll just drift in neutral for two years until Republicans win the House and turn around and impeach Biden for Hunter Biden’s laptop or something.

Something pretty big would have to happen at this point to change that future. Hopefully, nothing will.