The Crown Prince Don Jr. Conundrum


by Shelt Garenr
@sheltgarner

It is well known that Crown Prince Don Jr. is a major goober. Even his father, allegedly, has suggested the Crown Prince has the worst judgement of the family and that’s saying something.

But having said all that, he presents something of a conundrum for House Trump.

Macro trends would suggest that House Trump has formally been established. They are now a ruling family. And only American self-perception prevents House Trump from going full imperial on us. Though, to be honest, Trump’s control over the Republican Party is absolute he could, in fact, declare himself Emperor Trump I and the GOP would agree to the idea with great gusto.

Anyway, the point is, what to do with Don Jr.

On one hand, there are some pretty vicious fascists — like Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton — waiting in the wings who are more than willing to cut a bitch to become president. And, yet, the devotion of the Republican Party to House Trump is now such a Singularity of Fascism that it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Crown Prince won’t endup as either president or veep in 2024. (Though, we have to note at this point that Trump himself will probably demand a Constitutional Convention in his stolen second term and turn himself into something of a cross between Caligula, King George III and Brezhnev for the remainder of his days. )

The last time I checked, Trump isn’t actually God, so he is at some point down the road not going to be physically able to serve as president. Though I wouldn’t put it past the Republicans to make Trump “eternal president” as the North Koreans have done in a similar situation.

So, the point is, will the Crown Prince become president by default, or will there been some sort of existential power struggle whereby he becomes the kingmaker and simply gets some sort of cushy job running one of the military districts that will replace Blue States soon enough.

My guess is the Crown Prince will become president and because he’s such a fucking doofus, that the actual power behind the throne will be someone like Cotton or Pompeo.

But, long term, I think we’re in for a succession of Trumps as president. My guess just about when Barron Trump is up to take his turn, AOC will be release from prison like Nelson Mandela and a Second Republic will (mabye) be established.

The Russians Are Going To Hack Directly Into Our Election Systems As Part of a Quid Pro Quo With House Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am obsessed with my Webstats. I check them all the time. Very, very few people look at this blog and it is very addictive to see who comes to this site and from where.

I noticed something interesting a few days ago — a whole slew of people using Google Proxy looked at this site. A few of those people were from Russia, of all places. This reminds me of the advice I gave the Russians on this blog about when they inevitably hack into our election systems because Trump has removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany — don’t get greedy. (If that doesn’t work, Trump is going to beg Putin do this when they meet up in person in September.)

This causes me some existential angst. If those hits from Europe and Russia really were Russians interested in my theory they were going to hack into our election systems, did I give them advice they will actually use to hide their tracks? Should I have just kept that observation to myself?

While that sounds rather delusional, stranger things have happened.

I don’t think people really appreciate how craven House Trump is when it comes to staying in power. They are going to throw everything at the election to steal it — fucking with elections is their jam, after all — and so it’s painfully clear that one of their strategies to steal the election will work.

So, it is very easy to imagine that mysteriously Trump squeaks out a win just like he did before and we’ll just chalk it up to “shy Trump voters” or the power of Trump voters on boats. It is going to be interesting if we ever figure out the whole hacking situation in time to pressure Electors to not vote for Trump.

I seriously doubt it.

If it’s not Trump fucking with the postal service, it will be the Durham Investigation. If it’s not the Durham investigation, it will be the Russian hackers. The list goes on.

As such, darkness is here.

I keep saying I wish I was smart enough to tell you how to manage the new reality of Trumplandia, but I’m not. I have no idea. You’re own your own.

I guess maybe see if you can survive for about 40 years until AOC is let out of prison so she can serve as our Nelson Mandela or something.

We Have To Be Willing To Risk Things In The Real World Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to sound so dark and dystopian. I wish I could give you “hope” that somehow, some way House Trump will be defeated in the fall and we can go back to “normal.” Sadly, there’s no metric I can point to that suggests that. Everything points to a spectrum of autocratic rule.

On one end, House Trump “wins” reasonably easily. If that’s the case, then we will continue or gradual drift towards an autocratic managed democracy. We’ll look back, rightly, at Trump’s acquittal by the Senate as the end of the First Republic. On the other end of the spectrum there’s a civil war of some sort. The more difficult it is for House Trump and its enablers to maintain power, the more radical they will become for no other reason than they’ll be desperate and won’t care what they have to break to keep power.

I continue to talk to liberals who are completely delusional about all of this. They scoff that Trump has it in him to do anything so drastic. What they miss is while Trump is a criminally incompetent autocrat, he’s still an autocrat that has a personality cult to back him up and absolutely no institution with the power to check his craven need to protect his own hide.

We have to begin to think about some pretty basic concepts about what it means to be American. Just like how the Roman Empire gradually declined and then fell really, really fast, so, too, will the First Republic go. Americans are simply too divided and / or apathetic to do anything, in real terms, about House Trump. The logic necessary for House Trump and MAGA to run roughshod over the Constitution in an effort to stay in power is already there.

As such, there’s going to come a point when the milquetoast “resistance” on social media is going to be faced with some very real world decisions. I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas, but I’m absolutely never fucking shutting up about the tyranny of House Trump. If that means I get snatched off the street or pushed out a window by ICE or Little Green Men, so be it.

The cold, hard reality that America is now nothing more than a fascist state does give one pause for thought. The simple act of not shutting up, no matter what, about House Trump’s tyranny will soon enough be a radical act. The whole thing is rather unexpectedly existential. I mean, all I want to do is exercise my 1st Amendment right to free speech.

Once House Trump purges the media of all the “fake news,” then lulz, I’m going to be in serious, serious trouble. How is anyone going to know that people are being pushed out of windows if there’s no press to report it?

I keep thinking about the original “V” miniseries about lizard people aliens taking over the world. There was an old woman who fought back in her own personal way as it became clear who the “visitors” really were. And, I guess that’s my fate if the worst happens. I’ll figure out some way to do my part to help whatever meager “resistance” there may be to the tyranny of House Trump in the coming years.

It will definitely be interesting to see how, exactly, things shake out. I guess in the end there will be some sort of alliance with Russia as the United States pulls out of NATO. That will be interesting.

But, if anything, I’m a survivor.

The Twilight Of The First American Republic



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The First American Republican is now in its final days, its twilight. House Trump has been established and there’s nothing to stop its final consolidation of power. The coming 2020 election won’t even be a speed bump to this inevitability. At this point, the only issue is on what end of the spectrum will House Trump’s victory be.

Will it on Election Day or soon there after, or will it be a few months later when House Trump forces the issue via a civil war. I guess if you wanted to be extremely optimistic, you might suggest that there’s a chance House Trump might lose such a civil war, but I seriously doubt it. House Trump always wins no matter what, so why should a civil war be any different?

The easier it is for House Trump to win the 2020 Election, the longer this final twilight period in the First Republic’s existence will linger. In the end result will be the same, however — America will be an autocratic managed democracy and a vassal state of Russia, to boot.

The media is going to be purged. People across the country will simply vanish. And those opponents of House Trump who don’t vanish will be pushed out a window. The only way any one living in the Trumplandia will know this happened is because of reports from the BBC and others. The once vibrant press in the former United States will be dead.

A Constitutional Convention will be convened and House Trump vision of America will be codified once and for all. All of this will last for about 40 years until long-term demographic trends are simply too powerful for House Trump and it becomes possible that some sort of Second Republic may struggle out of the rubble of the First. But even that is iffy.

In the 2021-2022 timeframe, Trumplandia will leave NATO and sign an alliance with Russia. Ironically, this will allow the peaceful long-term ascent of China on the world stage as Trumplandia gradually begins to pull its forces back to the homeland. America First, after all.

This is our future. The details my be wrong, but in general, all that is America’s future. We just can’t see it because it’s on the macro historical scale. I’m not saying I have any sort of reveled truth, but it seems pretty obvious to me America is a fascist state.

I simply don’t see anything possibly stopping House Trump from consolidating power at a rapid clip.

Prove me wrong.

Trump’s October Surprise: The Durham Investigation




by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is an immutable law of nature that one of the many ways Trump is going to steal the 2020 Election is the outcome of the bullshit Durham investigation into the origins of the Mueller investigation.

Really, the only question at this point is how close are they going to get to Biden himself?

Given how deranged Trump is, I would probably guess they’ll do something a tick or two more potent than the Second Comey Letter. Something whereby at just the right moment, they can plant a seed of doubt in the minds of the electorate so Trump wins.

And, by the way, if you’re reading this because you’re a MAGA piece of shit stroking one off to the idea of this very thing happening — eat shit you fucking fascist.

But maybe I’m not looking at this right. Maybe Trump will be so desperate by October that he’ll indict Biden himself. That would probably be enough to end Biden’s campaign and Trump would actually “win” the election even without his fucking with the post office or getting Russians to directly hack into our election systems.

It won’t matter that the entire thing is bullshit and we’ll figure it out eventually. All that will matter Trump is he “won” the election and he can go in for the final consolidation of power. That’s it. That’s all he will care about. You can protest all you like. You can rant about it all you want to on Facebook and Twitter. But Trump will still be in power and fuck you.

The darkness is here politically. House Trump has established Trumplandia. The Thousand Year Trump is the be all end and end all of American politics.

Absolutely nothing indicates to me that I’m wrong. Durham may not indict Biden directly, but somehow, someway, the Durham investigation is going to help Trump “win” the election.

The Politics Of Fascist America



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is now fascist. This started the moment Trump was aquitted by the Senate. Trump is going to brazenly and successfully steal the 2020 Election in rather astonishing fashion.

In fact, his theft of the 2020 Election may be so staggering in its autocratic nature that it, in itself, may lead to another impeachment. But, obviously, American politics is now so broken that even if we all know Trump stole the election that there simply will not be the political will necessary to do anything about it.

So, that leads to an interesting question: what will the politics of Trump’s stolen, fascist term be like?

This is all very nebulous for a number of reasons. We know general trends, but the specifics of this absolute certain future remain difficult to predict. Once Trump is successfully in his stolen second term, it would make sense that he goes after the last institution that has any ability to check him: the press.

Once he uses his “German Industrialist” allies to buy up and the purge the free press, House Trump’s consolidation of power will accelerate considerably. He obviously is going to start ranting about the need for a Constitutional Convention and without a free press to slow him down, he’ll get it.

This leads to another, more specific question: how bad are things going to get?

Well, there’s a real chance that things could get far, far worse than any of us can possibly imagine. I say this because of Qanon. Once Qanon is the central tenant of the Republican Party, there’s every reason to believe House Trump will use this darkly vicious loony idea to use ICE to round up any and everyone they don’t like and put them in a camp — or push them out a window.

Remember, history is very, very strange at times. So, I would go so far as to suggest that Trump “unbound” will mean there are American Killing Fields. Using the support of the now completely Qanonized Republican Party, House Trump will murder in cold blood any and everyone they disagree with in a rather breathtaking fashion.

Given the momentum involved and the size of the population, I would estimate the death toll could begin to creep up to 10 million, maybe more. This is our future, this is going to happen. We might pause it now and again, but the conditions for this nightmare to happen are locked in.

Now, I will admit that sounds rather hysterical. But I simply can’t imagine any possible scenario where Trump in his second term doesn’t burn everything to the ground. The forces that he has unleashed are far more powerful than his ability to control them and, as such, watch out.

There is also a chance that a number of Blue States will be converted to military districts and Congress (and the courts) will be purged of anyone seen as not loyal to House Trump.

I could be wrong. I hope I am. If Trump doesn’t do all that and we simply drift into a quasi-autocrat situation, I could see the center-Left radicalizing much the way the center-Right in America did during Obama’s second term. So much so that by 2024, someone like Jon Stewart might run for office.

But it’s extremely difficult to sketch out anything that far out. All I know is, all signs point to House Trump ruling Trumplandia for around 40 or more years and then demographics being such that a new nation of some sort arising from the rubble of the United States.

It probably will be far smaller than the United States and the Blue States will hunker down to a Singularity of MAGA.

I hope I’m wrong with the dystopian nightmare I predict above. I really do. Something pretty spectacular that I simply can’t predict would have to happen, however. The macro trends are simply too powerful at this point for that not to be the case.

The Consequences of House Trump Stealing The 2020 Election



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Autocrats never lose. As such, let’s think about the consequences of House Trump stealing — in a rather brazen fashion — the 2020 Election. The key thing we simply don’t know is how difficult it will be for them to seal the deal.

It could be that the economy is going to come roaring back in the fall and Trump will get what he wants — he loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College. If that happens, then we will continue to drift into a more conspicuous form of autocracy. And, really, the only thing stopping House Trump from totally consolidating power is Trump himself. He’s a complete goober when it comes to actual politics and, as such, he is likely to keep crashing through norms in fits and starts.

If this happens, we also have to consider how Trump apparently thinks he can run for a third term because of the “Russia Hoax” that deprived him of being able to destroy the country in his first term in peace. Or something.

This is a very curious thing.

For Trump to simply run for a third term because, lulz, he’s Trump, would be so outrageous to most Republican member of the Senate that it would not be happening in the America we know today. The only way he could pull something like that off is either he’s completely purged the media of anyone he doesn’t like or there’s be a Constitutional Convention that has passed, among other things, a change to the Constitution that allows him to run for as many terms as he likes.

Either one of those is a very real possibility at this point.

But all that is working under the assumption Trump stays within the bounds of the Constitutions to steal the election. The more he has to force the issue, the more likely he and his supporters are going to do some pretty radical things. Or, put another way, the more likely Trump being a complete idiot will, without thinking about it, radically change our form of government simply because he doesn’t want to go to jail.

So, if after everything Trump STILL doesn’t manage to steal the election, he may simply say fuck it, I’m burning everything down. He holds up in the White House and says he’s still president, fuck you. And Barr will have pulled just enough of a legal justification for this out of his butt to the extent that both sides will think their guy is president and then the U.S.. Military has to pick a side.

I honestly can’t tell you what they will decide.

But, again, autocrats never lose, so I believe House Trump will end up on top.

In this scenario, House Trump’s consolidation of power will happen in days and weeks, not years. After a brief, violent civil war, Trump will rule as a military dictator and make vague promises about new elections. He will demand a Constitutional Convention and he’ll get it.

Then people like Tom Cotton and Mike Pompeo will have to figure out a way to ingratiate their way into the good graces of House Trump to the extent that they can maybe be a veep for Crown Princess Ivanka or Crown Prince Don Jr. Or, if you really wanted to be ironic, Trump could turn on both Cotton and Pompeo because he sees them as threats and they endup in an ICE camp like me.

Lulz!

‘Gradually, Then All At Once’ — House Trump & The Fall Of The American Republic



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are growing so tragic in the United States that really, there’s little you can do but tune out and wait to get pushed out a window by an ICE agent. The crazy thing about Trump is he’s definitely going to be seen as a Julius Caesar in the sense that he’s the guy that ends the Republic.

As I may have said before, it’s kind of obvious, now, how all of this was going to end. That statement Trump said about how he could murder someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a vote wasn’t a joke — and, as such, Trump has destroyed the United States that we once knew. Ernest Hemingway said people go bankrupt, “gradually, then all at once.” And that’s what’s happening to the United States. The fall of our Republic happened gradually, then all at once and Trump was the guy who pulled the trigger.

While I guess there’s a greater-than-zero-chance that somehow there may be a House Trump Interregnum because of some unpredictable fluke no one can predict, it would just be a pause.

America is now Trumplandia.

And, really, the issue at this point is, will there be a civil war or not and if there is, which side will the U. S. Military pick? Either side the chose will prompt bloodshed on an unprecedented scale. Or, put another way, if it’s this difficult to get rid of someone as demonstrably moronic and criminally incompetent as Trump, the, well, lulz. That’s really all you need to know about the state of democracy in the United States — it’s dead.

The only “change” that needs to happen is the 240-year self-perception Americans have of living in a “free” country. There may be significant bloodshed when a lot of people who “don’t have time for politics” wake up to realize they have a real risk of being snatched off the street — or pushed out a window — by one of Trump’s Little Green Men.

Once House Trump finally gets past that speed bump, then, while there might be a lot of protests now and then — just as there are in Russia — in the end it will be a lulz. House Trump will grow more and more powerful, more and more wealthy and fuck you.

Really, the last step will be Trump demanding we have a Constitutional Convention. That’s going to happen far, far sooner than any of us realize. He’s already demanding a “do over” for his first four years in office because he was “spied upon” by the Obama Administration. The logic is already there, folks. He’s going to push for a third term (a whole host of other Enabling Acts) and nothing is going to happen, just like always.

In hindsight, the moment the House flipped and Nancy Pelosi didn’t cause the entire government to grind to a halt, America was dead. America is dead. We’re Trumplandia now. A fascist state.

America is Russia. Russia is America.

Countdown To American Fascism: Trump’s Coming EO Zeroing Out The ACA



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


So, there’s this lawyer, John Yoo. He has come up with a legal doctrine for why Trump can legally be a dictator under the Constitution. Hence Trump’s weird news about protecting people from pre-existing conditions, something currently already done by the ACA. He’s going to do an Executive Order that zero’s out the ACA. Then he’s going to cherrypick the most politically popular bits and claim them as his own.

That Twitter liberals a making fun for Trump for this apparently redundant move about pre-existing conditions is a sign of how oblivious they are to how bad things are in real terms in the United States.

We’re now officially so far down the road to tyranny that we’re IN tyranny. And, really, the issue is because of the Overton Window and various forms of ratfucking on the part of Trump’s political goons, the only way the fascists who support Trump will ever care is if it becomes personal. Then they’ll scream bloody murder but it will be way, way, way, way too late.

It’s already too late.

Again, I wish there was something on a practical level I could tell you that would make matters better. But I honestly can’t think of anything. Trump is going to sign a series of EO’s between now and Election Day that the MAGA echo chamber will spin as the second coming of Jesus Fucking Christ.

At this point, the only thing that is actually holding Trump back is American self-perception. So fascism is here in America. Trump’s consolidation of power is well on its way and on a macro level there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.

I wish I was smart enough to think up some way to mitigate this situation, but, alas, I’m not. I fully expect to be either snatched off the street or pushed out a window at some point in Trump’s stolen second term.

Goodnight and good-luck.

V-Log — Developing & #Writing An ‘Apocalypse Now’ For The Trump Era

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In these two rambling videos, I talk about both the novel I’m writing and how fucked we are when it comes to Trumplandia. May God have mercy on our collective souls.