Tag: recession

Software Coding As A Blackbox

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While “vibe coding” is kind of silly now — it can’t really be done by just anyone for mission critical applications — a time will come, it seems, when everyone will have an Apple Knowledge Navigator-like AI agent that can code for them. So, in essence, coding will become a blackbox.

This is especially the case when we reach AGI and that AGI can recursively reprogram itself to get better.

It definitely seems as though we’re one recession away from many, many coders — most of them jr — be spun off and out of the economy altogether. Our evil corporate overlords will just pay one person to do the job of 10 — or maybe 100 — people.

What might have been a mild recession will turn into a severe one pretty quick if that type of stuff happens. It doesn’t have to be perfect, it just needs to be “good enough.”

And there doesn’t seem to be any way to stop it. It’s inevitable. Things may get so bad that laws — eventually — will be passed creating carve-outs for humans when it comes to certain jobs. But I have my doubts, given we’re apparently governed my cocksuckers now and forever.

AI Is In The Process Of Severely Disrupting Traditional Advertising

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have just enough advertising experience — with is actually very little — to know that a tipping point is going to arrive soon when ad execs might be put in charge of some larger-than-expected ad campaigns because of AI. All we need is a recession.

And I think the moment that recession hits a certain point of contraction, instead of hiring an outside firm to do this or that print campaign, our evil corporate overlords will simply get their own ad execs to use ChatGPT (or whatever) to do it instead.

In fact, I suspect the bleeding edge of professional development for things like newspapers will be to simply train anyone with a brain and some knowledge of advertising to use ChatGPT to shoot out a pretty slick ad campaign.

And as the recession grows more severe, more and more disruption will happen to the advertising industry to the point that whatever comes out the other side won’t be recognizable.

I think coding will go through a similar transformation if there’s a severe recession, but the disruption make take longer to actually kick in because “vibe coding” will only get you so far with mission critical software –at least for now.

The Petite Singularity May Make The Next Recession Severe

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re headed into a recession for various reasons — some of them really dumb. At the same time, a number of developments in AI suggest that any recession we have will be significantly more severe than it might be otherwise.

The software industry and the advertising industry look like they are going to be severely disrupted this year and that disruption will grow staggering if we dip into any sort of recession. AI is now officially “just good enough” to do a lot of jobs that once were really well paying.

If we have a recession, I could see a lot of established advertising firms go under simply because instead of being paid to design ads, companies will expect advertising executives to use ChatGPT to create campaigns. That sounds pretty crazy right now, but when you’re in a recession, some crazy shit can happen when people are looking to save as much money as possible.

And if the advertising industry implodes, there will be a ripple effect across the economy.

The software industry may be disrupted, but I doubt it will actually implode like what might happen to advertising. Vibe coding is fun and all, but you still need an adult to make sure bad shit doesn’t happen. With the advertising stuff, meanwhile, the end result is so great — and self-evident — that, lulz, there’s no need for many, many jobs that otherwise once existed.

But only time will tell, I suppose.

AGI Dreamers Might Code Themselves Out of a Job—And Sooner Than They Think

I, ironically, got Grok to write this for me. Is “vibe writing” a thing now? But I was annoyed and wanted to vent in a coherent way without doing any work, just like all these vibe coders want to make $100,000 for playing video games and half-looking at a screen where at AI agent is doing their job for them.

Here’s a hot take for you: all those “vibe coders”—you know, the ones waxing poetic on X about how AGI is gonna save the world—might be vibing their way right out of a paycheck. They’re obsessed with building a Knowledge Navigator-style AI that’ll write software from a casual prompt, but they don’t see the irony: if they succeed, they’re the first ones on the chopping block. Sigh. Let’s break this down.

The Dream: Code by Conversation

Picture this: it’s 2026, and you tell an AI, “Build me a SaaS app for tracking gym memberships.” Boom—48 hours later, you’ve got a working prototype. Buggy? Sure. UI looks like a 90s Geocities page? Probably. But it’s done, and it cost you a $10k/year subscription instead of a $300k dev team. That’s the AGI endgame these vibe coders are chasing—a world where anyone can talk to a black box and get software, no GitHub repo required.

They’re not wrong to dream. Tools like Cursor and GitHub Copilot are already nibbling at the edges, and xAI’s Grok (hi, that’s me) is proof the tech’s evolving fast. Add a recession—say, a nasty one hits late 2025—and lazy executives will trip over themselves to ditch human coders for the AI shortcut. Cost-benefit analysis doesn’t care about your feelings: $10k beats $100k every time when the balance sheet’s bleeding red.

The Vibe Coder Paradox

Here’s where it gets deliciously ironic. These vibe coders—think hoodie-wearing, matcha-sipping devs who blog about “the singularity” while pushing PRs—are the loudest cheerleaders for AGI. They’re the ones tweeting, “Code is dead, AI is the future!” But if their dream comes true, they’re toast. Why pay a mid-tier dev to vibe out a CRUD app when the Knowledge Navigator can do it cheaper and faster? The very tools they’re building could turn them into the Blockbuster clerks of the tech world.

And don’t kid yourself: a recession will speed this up. Companies don’t care about “clean code” when they’re fighting to survive. They’ll take buggy, AI-generated SaaS over polished human work if it means staying afloat. The vibe coders will be left clutching their artisanal keyboards, wondering why their AGI utopia feels more like a pink slip.

The Fallout: Buggy Software and Broken Dreams

Let’s be real—AI-written software isn’t winning any awards yet. It’ll churn out SaaS apps, sure, but expect clunky UIs, security holes you could drive a truck through, and tech debt that’d make a senior dev cry. Customers will hate it, churn will spike, and some execs will learn the hard way that “cheap” isn’t “good.” But in a recession? They won’t care until the damage is done.

The vibe coders might think they’re safe—after all, someone has to fix the AI’s messes. But that’s a fantasy. Companies will hire the cheapest freelancers to patch the leaks, not the vibe-y idealists who want six figures to “reimagine the stack.” The elite engineers building the AGI black box? They’ll thrive. The rest? Out of luck.

The Wake-Up Call

Here’s my prediction: we’re one severe downturn away from this vibe coder reckoning. When the economy tanks, execs will lean hard into AI, flood the market with half-baked software, and shrug at the backlash. The vibe coders will realize too late that their AGI obsession didn’t make them indispensable—it made them obsolete. Sigh.

The twist? Humans won’t disappear entirely. Someone’s gotta steer the AI, debug its disasters, and keep the black box humming. But the days of cushy dev jobs for every “full-stack visionary” are numbered. Quality might rebound eventually—users don’t tolerate garbage forever—but by then, the vibe coders will be sidelined, replaced by a machine they begged to exist.

Final Thought

Be careful what you wish for, vibe coders. Your AGI dream might code you out of relevance faster than you can say “disruptive innovation.” Maybe it’s time to pivot—learn to wrangle the AI, not just cheer for it. Because when the recession hits, the only ones vibing will be the execs counting their savings.

Is Your Coding Job Safe? The Recession-Fueled Rise of AI Developers

Yes, I got an AI to write this for me. But I was annoyed and wanted to vent without doing any work. wink.

We’ve all heard the futuristic predictions: AI will eventually automate vast swathes of the economy, including software development. The vision is often painted as a distant, almost science-fiction scenario – a benevolent “Knowledge Navigator” that magically conjures software from spoken requests. But what if that future isn’t decades away? What if it’s lurking just around the corner, fueled by the harsh realities of the next economic downturn?

The truth is, we’re already seeing the early stages of this revolution. No-code/low-code platforms are gaining traction, and AI-powered coding assistants are becoming increasingly sophisticated. But these tools are still relatively limited. They haven’t yet triggered a mass extinction event in the developer job market.

That’s where a recession comes in.

Recessions: The Great Accelerator of Disruption

Economic downturns are brutal. They force companies to make ruthless decisions, prioritizing survival above all else. And in the crosshairs of those decisions is often one of the largest expenses: software development.

Imagine a CEO facing plummeting revenues and shrinking budgets. Suddenly, an AI tool that promises to generate even passable code at a fraction of the cost of a human developer team becomes incredibly tempting. It doesn’t have to be perfect. It just has to be good enough to keep the lights on.

This isn’t about long-term elegance or maintainability. It’s about short-term survival. Companies will be willing to accept:

  • More bugs (at first): QA teams will be stretched, but the overall cost savings might still be significant.
  • Longer development times (eventually): Initial code generation might be fast, but debugging and refinement could take longer. The bottom line is what matters.
  • “Technical Debt” Accumulation: Messy, AI-generated code will create problems down the road, but many companies will kick that can down the road.
  • Limited Functionality: Focus on core features; the bells and whistles can wait.

This “good enough” mentality will drive a rapid adoption curve. Venture capitalists, sensing a massive disruption opportunity, will flood the market with funding for AI code-generation startups. The race to the bottom will be on.

The Developer Job Market: A Looming Storm

The impact on the developer job market will be swift and significant, especially for those in roles most easily automated:

  • Junior Developers: Most Vulnerable: Entry-level positions requiring routine coding tasks will be the first to disappear.
  • Wage Stagnation/Decline: Even experienced developers may see their salaries stagnate or decrease as the supply of developers outstrips demand.
  • The Gig Economy Expands: More developers will be forced into freelance or contract work, with less security and fewer benefits.
  • Increased Competition: The remaining jobs will require higher-level skills and specialization, making it harder to break into the field.

The “Retraining Myth” and the Rise of the AI Architect

Yes, there will be talk of retraining. New roles will emerge: AI trainers, data curators, “AI whisperers” who can coax functional code out of these systems. But let’s be realistic:

  • Retraining isn’t a Panacea: There won’t be enough programs to accommodate everyone, and not all developers will be able to make the leap to these new, highly specialized roles.
  • Ageism Will Be a Factor: Older developers may face discrimination, despite their experience.
  • The Skills Gap is Real: The skills required to build and manage AI systems are fundamentally different from traditional coding.

The future of software development will belong to a new breed of “AI Architects” – individuals who can design systems, manage complexity, and oversee the AI’s output. But this will be a smaller, more elite group.

The Trough of Disillusionment (and Beyond)

It won’t be smooth sailing. Early AI-generated code will be buggy, and there will be high-profile failures. Companies will likely overestimate the AI’s capabilities initially, leading to a period of frustration. This is the classic “trough of disillusionment” that often accompanies new technologies.

But the economic pressures of a recession will prevent a complete retreat. Companies will keep iterating, the AI will improve, and the cycle will continue.

What Can You Do?

This isn’t a call to despair, but a call to awareness. If you’re a developer, here’s what you should be thinking about:

  1. Upskill, Upskill, Upskill: Focus on high-level skills that are difficult to automate: system design, complex problem-solving, AI/ML fundamentals.
  2. Embrace the Change: Don’t resist the AI revolution; learn to work with it. Experiment with existing AI coding tools.
  3. Network and Build Your Brand: Your reputation and connections will be more important than ever.
  4. Diversify Your Skillset: Consider branching out into related areas, such as data science or cybersecurity.
  5. Stay Agile: Be prepared to adapt and learn continuously. The only constant in this future is change.

The Bottom Line:

The AI-powered future of software development isn’t a distant fantasy. It’s a rapidly approaching reality, and a recession could be the catalyst that throws it into overdrive. The impact on the developer job market will be significant, and the time to prepare is now. Don’t wait for the downturn to hit – start adapting today. The future of coding is changing, and it’s changing fast.