Tag: Orange Man IS Bad Shithead

Running The Second American Civil War Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I get most of my traffic these days from good old boys in the South stroking one out to the idea of The South Shall Rise Again via all my dystopian hellscape ideas about what a Second American Civil War would be like.

With that in mind, let’s run such a scenario updated for what’s likely to be happening in late 2024.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Slave states attempted to leave the Union because they felt the Free Soil movement in the guise of the Republican Party was politically acendant to the point that they would not continue to get unfettered expansion of slavery. Meanwhile, today, Blue states would leave the Union when it became clear that to remain in the Union would be to agree to a fascist autocracy.

I’m not saying this will happen, but I am saying there is a certain logic as to why when the crisis arrives in 2024, there will be three potential endgames — autocracy, civil war or military junta.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump. And, remember, all of this would be happening in the context of SCOTUS having agreed with the radical “independent legislature” concept that would give state legislatures total and complete control over their administration of elections.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.

‘The Fourth Turning’ Predicts A Major Political Crisis ‘Before 2025’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The spooky thing about the book The Fourth Turning is there is a specific prediction that aligns perfectly with my own thoughts on America’s fate — we’re going to have a severe political crisis of some sort in late 2024 after the presidential election.

Or, put another way, we will have a severe political crisis (second civil war) if the would-be autocrat that Republicans nominate isn’t able to cleanly steal the election and turn us into an autocracy that lasts at least 50 or more years. That specific prediction is enough for me to think the guys involved know what they’re talking about.

One key take away from the big so far right now is the cycle of human history is somewhere between 80 to 130 years. I’ve been toying with a similar idea — that we’ve reached an era where the last people to remember WW2 are dying off and, as such, the idea of the United States as the “essential nation” is being lost as the primary driver of American foreign policy.

As such, we see the rise of MAGA and the idea of Fortress America. If you twin that with the idea that the choice in 2024 is between civil war or autocracy, then The Fourth Turning‘s prediction that “before 2025” all hell is going to break loose jibes up pretty well with that.

We have to begin to prepare for a cataclysmic break with the past in the winter of 2024-2025. If we become an autocracy that pulls all out all our troops from around the world, then I could see WW3 happening at any point after 2025. For me, the issue is the next autocrat is probably going to be a lot less incompetent than Trump and, well, should we not have a civil war, our decent into autocracy will be swift and breathtaking.

All my dystopian hellscape nightmares that I imagined for the Trump Era will just happen four years later.

Should Breakfast At Tiffany’s Be ‘Canceled?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No
Long Answer: It’s complicated. Let me explain.

Ok, so the whole reason why the fucking FOX News bullshit echo chamber keeps stroking one to the idea of “cancel culture” is because they have no agenda and no policy ideas. They’re fucking fascist cocksuckers who would rather destroy America than risk the browning of America or accepting women with sexual agency.

So, really, the whole idea of “cancel culture” is done in a bad faith manner. The whole thing is fucking bullshit.

And, yet, there are aspects of so-called “cancel culture” that exists enough to give MAGA Qanon fucktards something to hang their hat on. Fucking cocksuckers.

Anyway, as for Breakfast At Tiffany’s, other than the Mickey Rooney’s tragically racist character in the movie, the movie is The Perfect Movie. But the Rooney character is, self-evidently, a racist stereotype.

It seems to me the solution is to simply edit the character out of the movie. And if that’s not possible, then liberal-progressives need to slow their roll before they do anything too conspicuous to the movie. A movie like Breakfast At Tiffany’s that would be so easily use as cudgel against our zombie liberal democracy to finally kill it.

So, either this issue blows up and helps the fucking fascist racist MAGA Republicans get out the vote so they can strangle our democracy and establish a “managed democracy” like they have in Russia or it doesn’t.

The Guns Of January: The Current State Of Political Affairs In The United States Is Untenable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something is going to happen. The United States is running on political fumes right now and if history is any guide, someone, somewhere is going to put unexpected stress on the system. It’s almost inevitable at this point.

Or, put another way, while we could very well punt this particular macro crisis in the United States down the road four years, the lines have hardened to such an extent that something that otherwise would not really be a big deal, might spark a sequence of events with no discernable endgame.

I would compare it to Europe mid-1914 right before the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Europe was a power keg that just needed a spark to explode — and that spark came. The United States is the same way. But, let me be clear to all the MAGA-Patriot Party shithead cocksuckers who think there’s going to be some sort of conservative “revolution” if the Dear Leader doesn’t stay in power for the rest of his life.

There won’t be a conservative revolution.

This.
Is
Not
Going
To
Happen

There’s not going to be a revolution. You may want to fuck your gun, but you’re not going to have a “revolution.” I don’t know why so many fucking idiots in Texas come to this site looking for my dystopian porn about the end of the United States. Fuck you, you idiots.

I will admit that Trump may TRY to stoke civil undress in a big way in the latter days of his administration in a last-ditch effort to stay in power, but, no, there’s not going to be any sort of conservative “revolution” by so-called “patriots” who want lower taxes and “freedom” from fear of being “canceled” when they’re a dick to women or minorities and get caught.

It’s all very frustrating.

When I talk about a “Glorious Revolution” in the United States, I’m NOT TALKING ABOUT A TURNER DIARIES RACE-WAR REVOLUTION YOU FUCKING IDIOTS. I’m talking about Trump, in a spasm of extra-political and extra-legal acts, being overthrown because, well, everyone who isn’t MAGA finally gets tired of his shit an hits the streets, maybe even up to the point of there being a General Strike.

There may be some serious counter-revolution style civil unrest in the United States, but I see that happening more in four years than now. The far Right, while full of abstract hate and rage against “libtards,” simply isn’t well organized yet. They need to marinate in their hate a few more years before they reach SA / SS levels of hate.

If Trump just freaks out at some point between now and January 20th and declares martial law unliterally or starts a war in an effort to “wag the dog” so he can pull a Constitutional fast one on us, he’s not going to be successful. He is going to seriously scare the shit out of us, but he’s not going to be successful. He just isn’t well organized mentally to pull it off.

So, yes, all the elements are there for significant political violence in the United States any moment now. But it will happen in the context of the Mad King being fucking bonkers, not some sort of Right wing revolution where we all sing kumbha over the broiling bodies of liberals. So, fuck you, you fucking cocksucker MAGA shitheads.

Four Days That May Shake The World


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m always wrong. Always. I make all these wild predictions and then…nothing. But the following is, if nothing else, entertaining in its own dark, disturbing manner. It’s possible that Jan 3rd to January 6th may be some of the most eventful in American history.

Here’s why:

The one year anniversary of the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani is on January 3rd. It’s easy to imagine Iran striking either in the Middle East or the American homeland in retaliation. Depending on what exactly occurred, that, in itself, could be Trump’s “Reichstag Fire” that makes him a wartime president.

Trump is already extremely unhinged right now, and it’s easy to see him wagging the dog right before Congress is set to certify the Electoral College vote on January 6th.

If you throw in Proud Boys in DC flipping out and causing a lot of mayhem in DC on or about January 6th as well, that’s the excuse Trump might need to invoke the Insurrection Act in DC. Additionally, as all of this chaos is going on, Pence might REALLY take things to the next level and nullify the certification vote by not doing him job.

That would really destabilize the country and…then…I don’t know. There are some basic elements of a successful coup that Trump hasn’t done. He hasn’t done his autocratic homework, if you will. So, in a sense, he’s thrashing about in desperation, making everyone else’s life hell because he’s not an autocrat at all, but a deranged ding-dong.

Ugh.

As such, while in the abstract it gives the Far Right a boner to think about how they can overturn the results of the election this way, the moment they actually do anything…it definitely seems everything will fall apart. For no other reason than Trump isn’t even an autocrat, but just a very lucky ding-dong. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. We need to marinate in our pre-fascist juices for about one more election cycle before we finally descend into a Russian-style managed democracy.

But there’s one thing to keep in mind — Trump is no longer thinking in political terms, but rather strictly in terms of self-preservation. So it’s possible Trump is so deranged that he might force the issue of some sort of coup well before we’re ready and not even the rotting rage found within our political system will be enough to save him.

He may so enrage the 60% of the electorate who don’t support MAGA that all the people who have totally invested in Trump’s rise to power over the last five years might, at last, find him a lability and cut him loose. But what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to punt all these problems down the road one election cycle and someone like Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley or Mike Pompeo will be the one to finally strangle traditional American democracy.

Trump is not an autocrat.

It’s a very curious situation we’re in for the next few days. And, really, if we make it past January 6th, that’s just the end of the beginning of this shitshow. It’s possible that once Trump doesn’t have ANY hope of overturning the election, he just explodes mentally and things grow extremely dire. So dire, in fact, that we might have some sort of snap impeachment and conviction of Trump, but not without him extracting one last pound of political flesh from the nation on his way out the door.

My fear, of course, is things grow really, really dark. That Trump goes the literal Hitler-in-the-bunker route. I hate to even think about the implications of that, but if we were honest with ourselves, it’s something we would begin to game out.

‘Downfall’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel I have a certain insight into Trump’s mind because he reminds me a great deal of my late mother — if you added testosterone and a wealthy Queens upbringing.

Anyway, the thing I learned from my mother’s behavior is people like Trump have a certain power from their instability. You just never know how they’re going to react to something. Are they going to flip out or are they going to take it calmly like a normal human being.

Having said that, there’s an element of Trump’s mentality that we’ve been kind of eyes wide shut about. Let’s call it the “Downfall” endgame. In this scenario, Trump’s mind falls into a logic trap and he snaps mentally. It would be at this point that he scares the shit out all of us.

So, let’s say his last-ditch effort to overturn the election fails on Jan 6th. He has about two weeks to wreak havoc. He could go transactional on Twitter in any number of different ways. He would demand MAGA murder liberals in cold blood. He could demand secessionist conventions in Red States. Or, things could get far, far darker.

He might start to get really, really passive aggressive on Twitter. To the extent that he starts talking about his ability to launch nuclear weapons and how he’s “protecting America” by being in office. If that wasn’t enough to scare the shit out of everyone, he might start to whine about how everyone hates him and liberals would be happy if he was dead.

I’m not joking — this is a real possibility.

This brings up the idea that Trump could very well hold up in the White House and refuse to leave. While a lot of Twitter liberals seem to express a certain glee at this prospect, in reality having to coax Trump out of the White House isn’t exactly something I would like to see the country have to go through.

But it gets worse.

What if, by that point, he’s so far gone that he goes the Downfall route. The implications of this would be staggering. It would be his final selfish act. Because it would be something that would-be Patriot Party people could hang an ideological agenda on.

Trunp-as-martyr would scramble our politics for a generation.

And, yet, that scenario is so fucking dark that I don’t like to think about it for no other reason than in the end Trump is a physical coward and for him to do something so drastic would mean he REALLY had lost his mind.

Anyway, he’s something I wrote about trying to get Trump out of the White House a few years ago.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

The End.



Confronting My Own MAGA Stockholm Syndrome


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in surreal times. We have an autocracy without the autocrat. And, so, while it’s very possible Trump may go transactional on Twitter in an desperate, last-ditch effort at self-preservation, it definitely seems as though there is, in fact, going to be a Biden Adminstration.

Because Trump is doing everything in his power to make it seem as though he’s not going anywhere, when he finally does leave office it’s going to be a very surreal moment in our nation’s political history.

I hate the Trump Administration with a white hot rage — so much so it’s inspired me to write a novel — and I haven’t even begun to believe that the autocrat may have, in fact, lost. This happened because Trump isn’t an autocrat, but rather an craven ding-dong, but whatever.

Anyway, the point is, we’re all in for some rather surreal days of political change when we all have to admit to ourselves that our long national Trump nightmare is, in fact over.

Now, let me put this into context — we are going to be very, very lucky if we just drift into the Biden Era. I am still not prepared to believe Trump isn’t going to somehow remove a pound of flesh from us as a nation on his way out. If he does that, then we wouldn’t just “drift” into the Biden Era, we would be pushed.

The first few days of the Biden Administration would be us all processing whatever horrific thing Trump did on his way out. I hate to say this, but it’s beginning to become a real possibility that Trump may hunker down in the White House and, gulp, chose Hitler’s Gotterdammerung exit rather than risk going to jail.

Or, put another way, we’re going to know soon enough if Trump is no longer thinking about things in political terms, but rather exclusively in personal terms. If Trump finally snaps and all his decisions are made solely on personal considerations, then the end of the Trump Era may be so shocking that it will dwarf even 9/11.

What exactly might happen, I don’t want to think about. But I have a few ideas of how dark and tragic things might get — especially if Trump won’t leave the White House we have to go in and get him out.

Anyway. Be prepared.

Prediction: Trump May Incite A Secession Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The curious thing about Trump is if he had any native political acumen, he would have done a major autocratic move at some point between October and just after the election. That would have likely goaded the Blue States into leaving the Union. He could, in turn, have put down such a revolt and reorganized them in his own MAGA image.

But he didn’t.

And now that he’s waited this long, his autocratic options have grown far more limited. And, yet, there’s a serious risk that once his absolute unwillingness meets his absolute realization that he lost, that his mind may lock up and he’ll go bonkers.

Because, I really don’t see any way he “crosses the Rubicon” and takes “total control” via martial law. There’s just no way he can do it. I guess he could start a war with the DPRK or Iran and try to pull a fast one on us. But it seems more likely that if he is really surrounded by crackpots and kooks that they’re going to drift towards the obvious: him going transactional on Twitter. Specifically, he may begin to demand that Red States leave the Union.

He would say that he’s the rightful president and those states who agree with him need to leave the Union. He might flee Washington for good and hold up somewhere while he goads Red States to leave the Union via conventions. He can probably get a huge swath of Red States in the central part of the country to do so because they’re white. But they have small populations and small economies, so while there would be significant political violence that would be called a “second American civil war” it wouldn’t be until the states of the old CSA got into the act that things would get lit.

But, as I keep saying, the black community simply isn’t going to allow old CSA states to leave the Union and all Southern whites will get for their trouble is a race war.

Such sedition would happen in the context of Trump finally losing his mind. I’ve long debated if Trump would “implode” or “explode” mentally in the end. It definitely looks as though he’s heading towards the latter.

As such, Republicans will face their final test — do they support Trump’s sedition or do they at last cut him loose? It seems this will be a real existential test for Republicans because at some point their absolute fidelity to Trump and his MAGA base will bump up against the cold hard fact that his behavior is, at last, absolutely indefensible and he’s a liability to their own political futures.

So, the split between people who lulz this and those who can’t take the final crazy train to sedition might — at least for one political cycle — destroy the Republican Party.

But there’s a huge caveat to all of this — since Trump isn’t an autocrat but a ding-dong, he could just, well, do nothing. He might rant a lot on Twitter, but he never finally goes transactional. He never finally takes the last step that would destroy the Republican Party.

Trump is so unpredictable — and so easy to overestimate — that we’ve still got some time before which direction he is going to go becomes obvious. But the closer we get to January 6th, the closer we come to knowing one way or another.

Once we get past the January 6th meeting of Congress, we’re going to know not only Trump’s fate, but our own.

#ETTD: Republicans May At Last Say, ‘He’s Gotta Go’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is he has such an absolute control over the Republican base that he could have become an autocrat in the traditional sense, but didn’t because he’s just a ding-dong. And I’m hearing a lot of people on Twitter suggest that Trump is the precursor to the rise of an autocrat who would finish the job Trump began.

We’re living in a Stephen King novel.

I generally agree with that sentiment, but for one thing — what if Trump between now and January 20th grows so unmoored from reality that he, at last becomes a liability to the Republican establishment in such a way that they at last turn their back on him, that they at last say, “He’s gotta go.”

What would that even look like?

Well, it seems to me that this would not be some sort of liberal fever dream where Rachel Maddow somehow becomes president. No, it would be such an epic crisis that it would scar Americans for a generation. Whatever the crisis was would be, in itself, a “political 9/11.” It would be so bad that the entire ground to a halt and we were given minute-by-minute discussion of events on CNN or MSNBC. And, remember, the 25th Amendment is a dead letter. It just doesn’t exist in any practical fashion, so we would have to impeach and convict Trump to get rid of him if things got all that bad.

For Republicans to finally, finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY, cut ties with Trump, it would have to be existential. Like, maybe he starts a war with the DPRK and we all think we’re going to die from a limited nuclear exchange with them. Something that big.

Or, put another way, Trump would have to become so wrapped up in staying in office that he totally and completely gave up any prospect of running for office again in 2024. The reason is — Mitch McConnell is a creature of power politics. For him to become interested in some sort of snap Impeachment that led to conviction, he would have to think the very existence of the United States was seriously at risk.

I have my doubts that even Trump doing crazy things like whipping his cock out or tweeting the n-word to Obama would be enough for #MoscowMtich. Trump has just over a month left in office, so #MoscowMitch would simply shrug and wait things out.

So, whatever Trump did would have to be REALLY BAD. So bad that it would be mentioned in the same breath as Watergate AND 9/11. And, honestly, the only thing I can think of is a war of some sort. And while Iran is the most obvious target of such a war (Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and would force Jesus to come back if such a war started) it definitely seems some sort of an attack on the DPRK would fit the bill much better for Trump.

The reason is — if Trump was completely insane, he might see a major regional war in Northeast Asia as such a massive distraction that he could pull a Constitutional fast one on us. Though, to be fair, the US Military — unlike the American public — can walk and chew gum and the same time so they would get rid of him. But Trump is growing so crazy that it’s at least possible he might want to risk such a gambit.

And, honestly, the only thing that may be stopping him now is he’s not a political genius and he likes Kim Jung-Un on a personal level too much. It just would never occur to him to do such a thing. He’s really not very smart.

It’s therefore possible that Trump will do everything in his power to destroy as much of the government as possible on his way out — maybe even thrash about in some sort of coup that goes nowhere — and in the end he just won’t leave the White House. And that will be the extent of these last few surreal days.

The ‘Patriot Party’ As Existential Threat To The Republic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For the moment, The Patriot Party is more an expression of MAGA frustration that the person they thought would murder American democracy — Donald Trump — was less Hitler and more Chauncy Gardner than anything else.

What MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party cucksucker shitheads want is, essentially, an American Nazi Party. They want a party that is so absolute in its fidelity to the Dear Leader that any member with any power will break the law rather than let anyone but a member of The Patriot Party take power.

That’s why Trump’s ding-dong “soft coup” to date hasn’t been successful. Republicans still have just enough respect for the rule of law that even if Trump attempts to get them murdered, they stand up to him. The Patriot Party would work hand-in-glove with Trump or whatever American Nazi who happens to pop up in the next few years.

So, in the guise of The Patriot Party, MAGA feels they would get what they haven’t gotten from the Republican Party to date: such absolute partisan allegiance to the autocrat that they destroy American democracy.

But for the moment, this is just a vague inclination among MAGA. It would take Trump joining The Patriot Party for it to really take. Or something. The Republican Party make simply turn into the Patriot Party before it’s over with. Or maybe American democracy will again limp along as the Republican Party implodes for an election cycle.

While we’re in a very dangerous place politically right now in America, unless some sort of “political 9/11” happens, the frustrations of MAGA will remain just that for a few more years.