In a lot of other countries, the events going on in Great Britain right now would be seen as a precursor to a revolution. The reason why I say this is it would not take too much for Remainers to reach a tipping point where they turn radical.
By “radical,” I mean they start to take concrete action to do something about Brexit and / or overthrow the government. Just watching events from the States, it definitely seems as though if Parliament rebelled against Boris Johnson that it would have a lot of support amongst the populace. It would not be too much to assume that under the right circumstances, things like seizing the BBC on the part of the Remainers might not be off the table.
And, yet, this is the UK. And I still don’t see any indication of radicalization. This is a low key crisis, but still a political one. Usually for there to actually be a revolution in a liberal democracy, someone, somewhere in power has to screw up. They have to misjudge things on a strategic level. So, while the conditions are there for something dramatic to happen, I’m not convinced it actually will happen.
If does happen, it’s more likely to happen after Brexit is formalized, not before.
In a sense, the political fates of the United States and the United Kingdom continue to be intertwined on a macro level. The thing about what’s going on in both nations is they each face systemic, existential problems. With the United States it’s the attempt on the part of the Trump Administration to turn the very idea of America from open and aspirational on an international level to one of “blood and soil.” Meanwhile, the British have a far more convoluted crisis.
With Great Britain, there is actually more than one crisis. There’s the obvious crisis of Brexit itself and in what exact manner it will take place. But there’s an even deeper problem — is Great Britain going to continue to exist in the first place? A simple and superficial sketching out of the future give you any number of endgames that result in Scotland leaving the UK altogether. I think that’s why Trump was babbling about “not hearing about England that much anymore.” He was struggling with Boris Johnson telling them was a chance that England may lose everything because of No Deal Brexit.
I only keep writing about this because I guess the idea that the people of the United Kingdom might take control of their fate once and for all in opposition to Brexit gives me some hope that Americans might do the same when it comes to Trump. I continue to think that there is a 99% chance that anything dramatic that happens to UK on an existential level will happen after No Deal Brexit, not before it.
The reason why I say this is from America, at least, neither side appears to have radicalized to the extent necessary to stop Brexit before it happens. Remainers are simply too disorganized. Just like MAGA in the United States, Brexiters are willing to use “new rules” to get what they want. Not until Remainers radicalize will anything happen. (Not that I want this to happen, of course.)
And, so, what little hope I have about the whole situation stems more from just the general uncertainty of the situation than any sense that what I want to happen — Remainers right the ship of state and save the country from itself — will happen. If that did happen, of course, then maybe Americans would be inspired to address the systemic problems that Trump represents. Or something.
But it’s not to be, at least as of right now. The bad guys will continue to win.
Let me be clear — I’m just a random American in the middle of nowhere. I’m not advocating anything I write here, just noting from a historical and political standpoint some events that may — or may not — happen.
Revolutions in modern liberal democracies are rare, almost unheard of. The closest I can think of is the riots in France in 1968. Otherwise, things have been pretty copacetic since the end of World War II. So that’s why I’m not really all that worried about what’s going on in Great Britain right now. Nothing concrete has happened to make me think we’re in any type of precursor to a revolution in the UK. But just for fun, let’s pace out a scenario where there was actually something akin to a revolution in Great Britain in the next few days. I’m not a British constitutional scholar by any stretch of the imagination, so any mistakes I make I apologize in advance for them.
A Matter Of Perception & A Crisis Of Legitimacy To date, the Brexit process has just been a chronic political headache. It’s moved along in fits and starts gradually moving towards what seems to be an inevitable No Deal Brexit in late October. The recent move on the part of Boris Johnson to suspend parliament, however, has at least popped the seal on Pandora’s Box, if not opened it outright.
Some of this stems from the existential questions it has brought to the fore. That the Queen would simply do Johnson’s bidding to enact what growing numbers of people see as a parliamentary coup has sparked some outrage on the part of a lot of people on Twitter. That #abolishmonarchy was trending at one point today on Twitter is the type of thing that in the past would have been a huge ping from the future as to what might lay ahead. Just as student of history, it seems the British monarchy has survived so long in part because it has stayed out of the way. Add to this Queen Elizabeth evokes medieval devotion and it would superficially seem the Windsors will cruise peacefully into yet another century of power. And, yet, from a revolutionary-political perspective that people are beginning to see the Queen as a part of the problem does not bode well. It is at least possible that the fate of the Windsor’s continue power is now wrapped up in what the outcome of Brexit is.
This plays into something else — revolutions, once formally begun, by definition have a dynamic all their own. The Islamic revolution in Iran in the late 1970s was originally as socialist revolution. As such, what could start off as a simply people protesting what they perceive as a coup could very well morph into a republican revolution.
And here’s a side note — another reason why I think the UK is simply going to slouch towards No Deal Brexit is far as I can tell, is new, more radical, leaders have not begun to bubble up. In fact, neither side is really all that radical at this point. A night of large protests in London do not a revolution — republican or otherwise — make. Now, it is my impression that there is the possibility that there might be a question of legitimacy in the coming days. Johnson tells Parliament to stand down and it’s possible they won’t do it. This act of defiance has been called The People’s Parliament.
Now, take a deep breath.
I honestly don’t know how valid The People’s Parliament notion is. But it’s existence would be a crucial step towards some sort of revolution. It would give the populace something to rally around and would be an instant revolutionary government. Then things get really murky in ways I know absolutely nothing about. What happens when the Government the Parliament begin to give orders that the other opposes? Who would have the authority to give these directions? How likely would it be that different part of the government might abide by different orders?
This is all just a fantasy, but it is “fun” to think about. If things have gotten this bad, then we reach another milestone of a revolution — protesters become revolutionaries. There would be demands. They might start to seize the organs of state such as the BBC and the police. This is likely when new leaders would begin to be seen in the media. I could definitely see one of the demands of the revolutionaries being the abolition of the crown and some sort of written constitution.
But wait, there’s more. This is just what would be happening in London. The Scots would likely see this as their moment. They might unilaterally declare independence as the revolution progresses. I have no idea what would happen or even if I have any of this right in the first place.
At some point, of course, Brexiters would also radicalize.This is where things are no longer fun to think about. It may be, tragically, that if things have grown this radical, that actual violence would occur between the two sides and a civil war breaks out. Again, this is all me simply sketching out a scenario. I have no idea if I’m anywhere close to being right in any of this.
Then the endgame would be up to the fates. Either the revolution succeeds and a new Republic of England is formed, or it’s crushed and something a lot more long the lines of Airstrip 1 comes about. Or maybe I’m being a bit too American in my hope for a successful revolution. Revolutions are only cool long, long, long after the fact. Even then, their consequences often suck. So, really, I hope for some sort of peaceful middle-of-the-road solution to the Brexit mess and that will be that.
I’m an American. As such, I have a limited right to comment on what’s going on in Great Britain right now. But just for fun, I’m going to use my native enjoyment of scenarios to go through what might happen in the UK next regarding Brexit.
A Revolt This seems like the least likely of outcomes. As of right now, the UK seems to be drifting towards some form of No Deal Brexit. People are angry, yes, but nothing concrete has happened that would be the tipping point that would radicalize one side or the other. It’s my impression that there is an element of Parliament that is claims they will defy the Government and stay in session no matter what. Should they do that and Boris Johnson send government forces into the Commons to forcibly dismiss them, that might be the tipping point needed to turn a lot of otherwise chill Brits into revolutionaries. Of course, the unsettling aspect of this I don’t know what the endgame would be. Once you rile up people in a liberal democracy to the point that they want a revolution, all kinds of wild events can unfold. That’s what democracy is designed to prevent. Whatever it is that might happen, however, would have to happen in the next few days. Otherwise, meh.
Nothing Happens Until No Deal Brexit Occurs In this scenario, it’s not until No Deal Brexit actually happens that the revolution then civil war happens. Things are so dire that a lot of people who supported Brexit will realize the error of their ways. This would be the necessary spark to not only tear the UK apart, but even maybe have it become a republic. Again, let me stress that I’m working with just enough information on this subject to get me in trouble. This is just for fun.
As you may know, on Oct. 31st, the UK is set to leave the EU. I feel as though the American press has done a piss-poor job of preparing Americans for what happens should there be a so-called “No Deal” Brexit.
Some of the things I’ve heard predicted about a No Deal Brexit are pretty alarming. The most worrisome aspect of it all is the UK seems to be slouching towards a No Deal Brexit in a rather meh fashion. Given that No Deal Brexit might mean the end of the UK in the first place, this is even more alarming.
The reason why No Deal Brexit might mean the end of the UK as we know it is Scotland may leave the UK after No Deal and then turn around and re-enter the EU. This kind of blows my mind. That the Queen wouldn’t step in to solve this whole issue is rather odd to this American. But, then, America does have a Mad King right now.
Meanwhile, there’s also something called the Back Stop. This issue, as I understand it, is about the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. My heart breaks at how mind-bogglingly stupid all of this is in the context of Ireland. I mean, did no one think about this when they were voting to leave the EU?
Anyway, for Americans, all of this is significant for one reason — the economy. Right now, the American economy is doing fine. But if No Deal Brexit slows the global economy down significantly, Trump — who is barely holding on to his sanity — may finally go Capt. Queeg on us. So, in a roundabout way, there is at least the possibility that Trump’s ultimate fate may involve the Brits figuring out how to avoid No Deal Brexit.
But, I have to be honest, I see one of two eventualities at this point — either there’s No Deal Brexit, or they kick the issue down the road again for a few months. There just doesn’t seem to be any political will to fix this issue in Great Britain.
I have to stress, however, that I’m a clueless American. What do I know.
I looked at the schedule for Brexit and at April 14, that’s about the same timetable that AG Bill Barr says some form of the Mueller Report might come out.
We may — maybe — be careening towards a perfect storm. It’s possible that within days of each other, The Mueller Report will drop in the States and No Deal Brexit will occur in the UK.
This would have us on track (should we actually ever learn what’s in The Mueller Report) for one of the most eventful Aprils in our nation’s history in the sense that no only will there be growing calls for impeachment of POTUS, but the global economy will come to a screeching halt.
But there’s a lot we don’t know at this point.
Trump could lock away The Mueller Report with his taxes. No Deal Brexit might not happen or might be significantly delayed.
We just don’t know.
There is, however, a greater than zero-sum chance that Trump will, in April, face an unprecedented political existential threat to his administration. There’s also the chance, of course, that America is so divided that not even if Trump’s electorate base melts down to anti-vaxxers and flat earthers will he be removed from office.
Because of demographic, economic and social trends, it may be that Trump will simply be the beginning of a political dynasty that lasts until either the country finally tears itself asunder or the youngest of the Baby Boomers finally begin to die off just as the browning of America begins to have real political impact.
Two of the biggest self-owns in recent political history may come together in one giant clusterfuck in early 2019. It’s possible that just as the Americans are in the middle of impeaching Trump, the British will swerve into “no deal” Brexit. My thinking is this — hard Brexit leads to the global economy slowing down in a big way and as such all those rich MAGA people who have been telling me to “shut up an enjoy the humming economy” might find a reason to finally do The Pence Pivot. I’m not saying I can predict the future, but the conditions, at least, are definitely there for what I suggest to happen.
I have no faith that May is going to dig Great Britain out of this hole and I definitely know Trump is going to be impeached. The below video is pretty interesting in this context.
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