
This is a good long, rundown of where things stand in the crisis we’re currently experiencing.
Be The Power
This is a good long, rundown of where things stand in the crisis we’re currently experiencing.
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Let’s be honest — we’ve reached point where Republicans are a cult. In their eyes, the only legitimate way to impeach a president is if they, themselves, gain politically by it. So, really, in their view, only a Democrat president can be impeached.
That’s it. A Republican, by definition, is immune to any Constitutional punishment for their actions.
So, you can pull any kind of reason why this or that thing might help Democrats make their case going forward — Mich McConnell is simply not going to hold the trial. It’s a win-win for him. Senate Republicans don’t have to defend a vote if it’s never held. And the move gives Trump free reign to help Republicans in the 2020 election cycle by doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. Bribe Electors. Dox them. Appoint Rudy as a Special Prosecutor to look into the Bidens. Directly ask the Russians to hack the election. Whatever. It will help Republicans keep the White House. And the base will be happy so they keep the Senate.
Republicans keep power, which is all they care about. They have no shame. None. Zero. They are completely detached from any form of political reality at this point.
Why this is extremely troubling is the Senate simply not holding a trial is sort of a Constitutional singularity in that it’s the point where politics and the Constitution meet. Even if SCOTUS tells the Senate it has to do it, McConnel could simply ignore them. That would be fun.
I honestly have no way to address this. If we revolt, Trump simply abolishes Blue State governments, purges Congress of Democrats and, well, MAGA?
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Watergate was a national tragedy. “A long national nightmare,” as Jerry Ford called it. It was a tragedy in that it was the beginning of our modern political era. The Republican Party of 2019 is essentially made up of the the people who supported Nixon after the tapes were released. And so, TrumpUkraine is shaping up to be another one of those politically redefining moments.
A prime example of this is Kris Kobach’s recent ernest declaration that Senate Republicans should en masse commit jury nullification by pledging not to even hear the case against Trump. Such a statement is a savvy political move on Kobach’s part because it’s a win-win. If Trump survives, he’s a suck up. If Trump somehow manages to actually get convicted, he could very well be the core of the Republican Party going forward. Kobach has proven himself to be a lazy doofus when it comes to the hard work of politics, but, then, Donald Trump is a also a lazy doofus. Kobach really, really REALLY hates brown people coming into the United States. Given that the systemic problems that caused Trump in the first place are going to linger even if Trump is removed, he’s probably going to court the MAGA base pretty hard.
One of the things that has served Americans well is the stability of our government. There’s a little problem with this, however, we don’t deal with government instability well. We don’t have any traditions to lean on. There’s no precedent as to what to do when we have an existential crisis like the one we’re in now.
I honestly don’t know what is going to happen to Trump at this point. The United States is not a functioning democracy right now. In fact, the only reason why the system is fighting back at all is Trump uses his galactic mind when it comes to self-owning. I’m reluctant to say we’re in that weird period of time before a president unexpectedly leaves office because it’s only happened once, in 1974. That’s the only historical guide we have as to how the system would work.
But, let’s sketch out some sort of scenario. Trump is never going to resign. In fact, he’s more likely to start a war than resign. Yet, suppose he is convicted. The first problem is getting him physically out of the White House. I’ve written about this scenario before some time ago and it’s not pretty. It would be a 9/11-level crisis for the United States. In fact, it would be if the OJ trial had a baby with 9/11. The reason is, it wouldn’t happen in hours, it could happen for weeks. I mean, Trump is demonstrably bonkers and has a twitter feed, what’s to stop him from telling the MAGA base to gather up their AR-15s and surround the White House? Then what?
At this point, we have to bring up House Trump. However Trump might finally leave office, he’s not going to go willingly. He’s going to demand a pound of political flesh. The most obvious expression of this is who would replace Pence as veep. Don Jr. is simply too much like his dad to fill the position, even though he’s got a serious clam to it. The base loves him and the Senate Republicans would approve him in a heartbeat. It just seems more politically likely, from a macro political standpoint that it would be Ivanka Trump who would play the role of Nelson Rockefeller. Jerry Ford was seen as a partisan hack when got the job of president. Really, at this point, that Republicans haven’t done The Pence Pivot is beginning to seem a bit surreal. Under all conventional political metrics you might use, Trump’s goose is cooked. Pence is a traditional politicians who is willing to at least play lip service to traditional democratic norms. That The Pence Pivot hasn’t begun to be formulated this far into the game is a very bad sign. That means Republicans are willing to ride the MAGA pony all the way to the bottom.
But anyway, back to Ivanka. Nikki Haley may think she has a claim to be Pence’s VP, but…no. It’s going to be a member of House Trump. Ivanka is so much like Nelson Rockefeller that it’s almost as if we’re going simply use the Watergate final days as the basis for a reboot. The only problem with using her to maintain House Trump’s connection to the White House is there’s a good chance not only would the MAGA base sour on her immediately, but everyone else would hate her for being complicit.
We’re still not really into this crisis yet. There aren’t enough datapoints to make any kind of serious scenario about Trump’s fate. But I will say tentatively things aren’t looking good for The Thousand Year Trump.
Shelton Bumgarner is a writer working on his first novel. It’s meant to be an allegory for the Trump Era. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com. He welcomes your comments as long as they’re not insane.
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
The reasons why I think it’s even remotely possible that not just Trump but Pence might abruptly leave office are Trump is likely to lose his mind as the impeachment process proceeds and the sheer magnitude and brazen nature of what’s going on with House Trump.
While Trump going bonkers in the near future is pretty likely, the idea that political gravity might suddenly and abruptly snap into place is also something to at least mull. That not only Trump, but Barr and Rudy are implicated in this scandal is bad enough. But Pence in his craven desire to suck up to Trump is beginning to become to become implicated in this mess as well.
One thing that is curious is how often Barr keeps popping up in this self-own by Trump and how little political damage has resulted. No calls for resignation and barely even calls for him to recuse himself. So, for the time being, it appears Barr is pretty immune to the fate of Nixon’s attorney general John Mitchell.
But there may come a point when some pretty basic problems with what’s going on within House Trump become so existential and conspicuous that not even the abject refusal of Republicans to admit that Trump has ever committed any crimes at all might not be enough. It could all blow up in a surreal, spectacular fashion that would be the political equivalent of slicing a very painful boil.
Before you get too excited, let me point out the obvious. The specific set of events that would cause both Trump and Pence to leave office fast enough to cause Pelosi to become president are pretty damn near impossible. I say this because the position of veep under Pence will be highly coveted and Republicans are likely to fill it with lightning speed. It could be Don Jr. or Ivanka or Nikki Haley. So whatever forced Pence out of power would have to be swift. I just don’t see that happen. Pence is far more likely to be Jerry Ford. 2.0 than simply a historical speedbump.
Just for fun, though, let’s imagine President Pelosi. Pelosi is seen as satan by much of the Republican Party. She’s hated so much that a lot of moderate Democrats see her as a liability. So, I would suspect she would be a caretaker president. She would simply right the ship of state while the 2020 election campaign was taking place.
We would likely have a repeat of 2016, only maybe a little less “colludy.” All of the problems that existed in 2016 would resurface. And, remember, Ford only BARELY lost in 1976. He would have won if he had been a bit more politically adept in selling the Nixon pardon and had Reagan not come so close to defeating him at the convention.
As such, it’s pretty possible that having a controversial Democratic (and female) president on election day 2020 would help Republicans and we’d be right back where we were. Our republic is barely functioning. Barely. And, to date, I have not seen any indication that we’re going to have the political will needed to face how astonishingly corrupt House Trump is.
So, for the time being, this is simply a liberal fever dream.
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Before I begin, I have to note that a fish rots from its head. A lot very power, very intelligent and very well educated people are playing defense for an extremely reckless doofus. So, the thing to take into consideration is I’m trying to imagine how House Trump will respond to the upcoming impeachment battle. But there’s an existential weakness, no matter what — Trump himself. There may come a point when just like how I see a fence at the border and everyone else sees a wall, there may be a pretty big difference between what many of can actually see with our senses and what Republicans tell us we see.
Let The People Decide
At some point we will get close enough to the 2020 election cycle that the Republican talking heads will say given that what Trump did isn’t really a big deal, what’s the point in going through the impeachment process in the first place. The critical flaw to this argument — and the one they don’t want us to think too much about because, well, lulz, they have no shame and lust after power for power’s sake — is that Trump demonstrably is so shifty and corrupt that there are no assurances that there will be a free and fair election in the first place. And that, in itself, is the more existential aspect of this clusterfuck. Our entire 200 or so years of republican rule rests on Trump doing something so catastrophically bad that he loses enough Senate Republicans that they vote to convict.
I say this because if Trump is so a craven doofus as to call the president of Ukraine 24 hours after being given a political pardon by the “bad optics” of Bob Mueller’s Congressional testimony, you damn well the moment he’s acquitted by the Senate he’s going to be emboldened AGAIN. If this wrapped ups around, say Feb. 2020, that gives him a pretty long time to use the levers of Federal power to fuck with the election. That’s his thing. He’s so obsessed with winning at any cost that he’s willing to pretty much destroy the entire country and it’s tradition of free and fair elections to do it. Nothing will be off the table. He will be completely above the law. Trump will grow so absolutely brazen that he can bribe Electors or dox them or whatever. He is going to win. There will be no stopping. What are Democrats going to do, impeach him AGAIN just a few days before the election? Or between when he loses the election and when he uses corrupt means to secure an Electoral College victory? Have you been paying attention? So it’s reasonable to assume that if Trump somehow magically lost the election that he would simply use post-Election Day corrupt means to win. And there simply would not be the political will to do anything about it. So, Republicans with no shame and a craven lust for power “win.” This is not a hysterical scenario. This is a scenario using the metrics that have been established in broad daylight about Trump’s personality and motives.
Abject Denial Of Reality
There is a chance that, like I said, Trump will self-own again. There will come a point where is behavior is so surreal and erratic that it is literally impossible not to notice. But Republicans, knowing that Trump has the love of the base and people generally aren’t interested in politics (lulz) will simply not just be party over country, they’ll be party over reality. The way to combat this is, well, make their life hell. A Republican pressure point is cramming through young hack MAGA Federal judges. If Republicans simply deny reality altogether — or refuse to talk about the dick pic Trump tweeted out — you shut down the Senate using parliamentary warfare. I don’t know the finer points of the Senate, but I’m under the impression that if you really wanted to be a dick, you could slow it so much that it essentially ground to a halt.
“Managed Democracy”
The most chilling aspect of the problems Trump is experiencing right now is they are in large part the result of Trump finally figuring out how to use the levers of power. So, it makes sense that if Trump managed to stay cogent enough to realize he may be facing an existential crisis, will simply break the entire liberal democracy that we currently enjoy. He pardons a dozen powerful people. He appoints a Special Prosecutor to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. He leans into how the Judiciary is now but an extension of the GOP. He will figure that most people really won’t care (lulz) about some pretty basic rights as long as they economy is doing well. The only response I can think of this is, on an ideological level, radicalism. Radical Resistance would manifest its in the use of enlisting “civilians” into the fight against fascism. One of the few times House Trump has backed down — the whole kids n cages situation — the bolts popped off civil society for a few days as pretty much everyone on TV looking into the camera and said the policy was horrific. In this case, it wouldn’t be a day, it would be weeks. There would come a point, maybe, when a few Republicans might realize they had gotten all the massive plutocrat tax cut they wanted and Pence would give them the young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench too. They might not abandoned Trump, but they might lesson his political power.
Again, let me stress something to all the powerful Republicans who still believe Trump is going to establish The Thousand Year Trump — Trump is not just an evil version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner, he’s also a criminally incompetent self-own artist. If you thought today was bad, there’s a non-zero chance you’re going to be on TV defending a presidential junk pic. Or the president tweeting in the N-word to Obama. Or the president “joking” on Twitter that MAGA should kill the Whistleblower. I know Republicans have no shame and are craven in their lust for power for power’s sake. But maybe I’d like to end this on an up note and speculate maybe, just maybe a Republican with power might at least do The Pence Pivot. They won’t, of course. We’re fucked.
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
In the age of Trump, you grow accustomed to getting excited that maybe, at last, political gravity will kick in and Trump will face some sort of consequence for his surreal, criminal and corrupt behavior. House Trump has two ways of combating scandals. One is the Roy Cohen inspired Stormy Daniels Playbook. The other is to slow walk any legal trouble so they can get into their second term so it won’t really matter anymore because we’ll be an authoritarian managed-democracy by that point.
So, right now, Trump is using the mindfuck that brings him such glee — teasing the idea that he’ll release the transcript of the conversation that’s getting him in trouble. This is a multi-layered mindfuck because it conflates what we need — the actual complaint — with the thing that causes people concern about releasing — the transcript.
Therefore, what House Trump believes will happen is they can slow walk releasing the transcript. The tease amps up the hype for the transcript’s political significance. We spend precious months fighting over it and when it comes out, it’s a dud. Trump wins re-election, fuck you.
Meanwhile, the far more damaging thing, the complaint — which legally has to be turned over, natch — goes down the memory hole with Trump’s taxes, fuck you.
For the moment, Trump has the upperhand. He’s too good at this and the press too eager to fall into the same trap over and over again. So, really, I have very low expectations. I see nothing but blue skies for House Trump’s Thousand Year Trump.
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Donald Trump is the true successor to Ronald Reagan. Or, put another way, Trump is the second in a series of successors to the Watergate legacy of Richard Nixon. Trump is going to win re-election by hook or by crook. He’s going to have either an illegal third term or a de facto third term in the guise of a hand-picked successor. It’s probably going to be either Ivanka or Don Jr.
Our best bet is that by the 12th year of rule by House Trump, the ebb and flow of history will finally kick in and some sort of center-Left president will be elected. Of course, this is only likely if there’s any life in American democracy at all. More likely, we’ll simply have a series of Trumps for about 20 years until at some point the browning of America kicks in just about the time the youngest of the Baby Boomers die.
The worst part of all of this is the political center of gravity in America has again lurched to the Right in a big way. So the only way Democrats will elect a president is if they can find a very charismatic Bill Clinton type who is barely Leftist at all in his or her policies.
Of course, this is based on the assumption that the Union and or the Constitution survive in the first place. There’s a really good chance that if House Trump overreaches that either Blue States will attempt to leave the Union altogether or there might be some sort of military junta that keeps the Union together until things get sorted out.
There are no happy endgames.
by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
If you look closely at how, exactly, the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire, the parallels with modern America are striking. The thing about the early Roman Empire, as I understand it, is that many of the traditions of the the Republic lingered for generations.
That’s what’s happening with America now. Trump in his own corrupt, incompetent manner, is serving as something of an American Caesar. He’s pushing us from a republic into a de facto empire with ruling families and no democracy.
So apparently Ivanka and Don Jr. are fighting out behind the scenes as to who will succeed their father. The solution to their fighting would be, of course, for Don Jr. to be run for president and to pick Ivanka as his veep. Or vise-versa. And that would be how House Trump would rule the country for the next 20-odd years until the youngest of the Baby Boomers croke and the browning of America reaches a tipping point. (Or Blue States get fed up and leave the Union altogether. Or there’s a military junta installed with someone like Gen. Mattis as Lord Protector.)
Now, I honestly don’t see anything stopping this scenario from happening. If it’s not craven plutocrats, it’s Russians, if it’s not ammosexuals, it’s Evangelicals. There are simply way too many powerful groups with a vested interest in House Trump ruling the country for as long as they can absolutely do so.
I honestly don’t have any hope. House Trump is an avatar for the demise of the American Republic. Or put another way, Trump has served his purpose. He’s ended the America I grew up with. It will be Don. Jr or Ivanka who simply build on what he’s created. There is no hope. It’s over.
But having said that, just to entertain myself, let’s think of what might go wrong for House Trump. First and foremost, they’re growing arrogant. They have grown accustomed to getting whatever they want. So they’re beginning to talk pretty openly about the existence of House Trump. They think that they’re safe. They see it as FUD. They want to browbeat what little opposition they have into accepting their rise to the imperial throne. Much like the Romans of 2,000 years ago, however, Americans aren’t too fond of royalty. So there is at least a small possibility — maybe 1% at this point — that there is pride before the fall.
But I would say it’s far more likely that the country simply splits in two, with House Trump getting Red States and the American Republic continuing in Blue States. In a way, it would be similar to the Western and Eastern Roman Empires.
The more I think about the country splitting up, the more I struggle with how, exactly, it would take place. It’s difficult to see Blue Washington D.C. staying in the Red Rump USA. That fact alone assures there would be bloodshed. Maybe a lot more than we could possible imagine. And I really, really don’t want that. Or House Trump will simply abolish Blue State governments and rule them as military districts. They’ll weaponize ICE and the camps and throw anyone who opposes them into them. Lulz!
One thing is for sure — the American experiment in republican rule is over. The problems are too existential to be fixed. It may take a few decades, but we’ll be just like Russia and it’s “manage democracy” soon enough. I would say things will accelerate in Trump’s second term.
Once Don Jr. or Ivana becomes president, it’s all a moot point.
I wish there was something I could think up that might prevent this slide into dystopia, but I can’t.
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