Cyber Ninjas Recount Endgames


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some of the possible endgames to the sham Cyber Ninjas “recount” in Arizona.

  1. The Dud
    In this scenario, either Cyber Ninjas aren’t able to “prove” Trump won the state or they do manage to pull a Trump victory out of their butts…and nothing happens.
  2. The Talking Point
    With this endgame, everyone on Fox News, OAN and NewsMax rants and rant and rant about how Cyber Ninjas “proved” Trump “won” the state, but, again, nothing happens. It’s just a talking point.
  3. The Catalyst
    With this one, Cyber Ninjas gets hired to “prove” Trump “won” several other states — at least enough for him to claim that he really won. This greatly destabilizes the country more than it already is
  4. The Tipping Point
    In this endgame, Trump sees his “victory” in Arizona as a reason to demand being named Speaker of the House should MAGA flip the chamber. He rants and rants about this idea. He gets named Speaker in January 2023 and then leads an impeachment of both Biden and Harris so he can become POTUS again early.
  5. The Trumplandia Then Civil War Gambit
    With this one, the moment Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” Arizona, all hell breaks loose and when it becomes clear that Trump isn’t going to be reinstated, MAGA state legislatures begin to hold secessionist conventions. Trumplandia is born and we have a civil war to sort things out.

MAGA’s Determination to Turn Ashli Babbitt Into A Martyr Is So Fucked Up


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Yet another sign that we may be careening towards an actual shooting civil war is how the MAGA Right jumps at any chance to turn one of their own into a martyr for the cause. Their latest effort is with Ashli Babbitt who was shot and killed when she attempted to crash through a door that stood between members of Congress and her angry mob.

I saw this event the day it happened and the guy who shot her did the right thing — it was either her or the potential murder of the political figures he was assigned to protect.

And, yet, that’s not how MAGA sees it. They see Ashli Babbitt as a brave member of the MAGA movement who was unjustly murdered. When they’re not conflating things they are focusing on very specific demands: they want the name of the officer who shot her so (I presume) they can sue the hell out of him and potentially hunt him down and hurt him in the name of MAGA. (Or something.)

But the broader significance of this the two sides now live in such different echo chambers — that don’t even overlap — that we’re lurching towards a situation where all this overheated rhetoric is finally going to cause even more political violence. I’m not so sure I would say some sort of MAGA-themed Second American Revolution (ugh) but it is possible that should Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” Arizona that the conditions are there for some sort of “decertification” crisis that turns into a nullification crisis that turns into a secessionist crisis.

MAGA has come to glorify political violence to such an extent that the Republican Establishment may be shocked when the same dynamic that happened Jan. 6th happens on a national level and states begin to leave the Union. That sounds hyperbolic, but it’s a lot more possible than you might think.

The United States is far less politically stable than you might think. But it’s very possible that we’ll just peacefully slip into an autocratic managed democracy in the 2024-2025 timeframe and that will be that. And then people like me have to start worrying about getting pushed out of windows by ICE because we won’t fucking shut up about MAGA being American Nazism.

Will There Be A Second American Revolution In 2021?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, if you’re a MAGA cocksucker who has stumbled across this site because you think there’s going to be a “second American revolution” to reinstate Trump — fuck you, you piece of shit.

Having gotten that off my chest, let’s think about this seriously. Almost no one reads this blog, but those who do seem to be MAGA people interested in my fear porn about the United States becoming either an autocracy or having a civil war / revolution. Of course, they’re coming at this fear porn from the exact opposite direction — my fear is their hope.

Now, remember, a “revolution” is not a “civil war” although the exact definition of these two events is apparently hotly debated by political historians. I guess what MAGA people think is there will be some sort of popular uprising if ding-bat idiot Trump isn’t “reinstated” sooner rather than later. They’re frustrated and long for some way to bring back Trump — even if it means political violence.

While I can think of a number of civil war scenarios off the top of my head — most of them involving the Cyber Ninjas recount of Arizona — an actual MAGA “revolution” is a lot more difficult for me to imagine. It seem as though all these searches for “America revolution 2021” come more from abstract frustration on the part of MAGA cocksuckers more than anything else. They know it would be “cool” if they would pull the ultimate own the libs move and stage a MAGA-themed Second American Revolution…but they don’t really know how it might happen.

So they do a keyword search for that type of thing and endup at this site.

If it makes would-be MAGA “revolutionaries” feel any better, I do think we’re one major political death away from significant popular political violence in the United States. There are a lot of old — and popular — pols in the United States whose unexpected death would cause a lot people to freak the fuck out.

But, for the time being, if you’re part of the violent personality cult that is MAGA you’re just going to have to pin your hopes on things getting out of control should Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” Arizona.

Known Unknowns Of Trump’s Belief He Will Be ‘Reinstated’ By August


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have gamed out in pretty explicit detail on this blog my fears about what might happen this year should Cyber Ninjas “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona. It doesn’t matter that the whole thing is a fraud and a sham done to further Trump’s Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him — all he needs is a win, any win and he will hysterically say he is still “really” president.

Oh, now take a deep breath.

The crux of the crisis we may be facing is…then what? Trump’s popularity outside of the violent MAGA personality cult is seemingly at a historic low. And, yet, even at this nadir, Trump’s devotees are still a solid 20-30% of the electorate. Given that political science tells us it only takes an organized 5% of the population to take over a country, if Trump really leans into his bonkers belief that he has to be reinstated, well, we could be fucked.

Logically, Trump taking the sham Cyber Ninjas “win” and running with it to make surreal declarations about his return to the presidency would have him laughed off the public state. Or, at least, would be ignored to the point that the only place he can rant about it in public is OAN, NewsMax or FOX News. And, yet, this is Trump we’re talking about.

The Republican Establishment lives in abject fear of Trump because they’re afraid that if they don’t kowtow to him, he will bolt the party, taking a huge chunk of the Republican Party with him. As such, his hold over the Republican Party is near Hitler over Germany in early 1945 levels. It’s very easy to imagine that Trump might pull off one last hat trick and get elected Republicans across the country to entertain his insane rantings to the point that they convene some sort of conventions to study the idea of “nullifying” the Biden Administration.

Or something. Whatever method they picked, it would happen spontaneously and, at first at least, be done to “own the libs” and provoke a lot of ridicule from said libs. My fear is, all of this will turn pretty serious — and dark — pretty soon when suddenly what started off as a joke turns into a secession crisis.

As an aside, this does make one wonder which state might be the first to actually jump off the cliff for Trump and attempt to secede from the Union. There are so many to choose from. South Carolina seems the one to have some sort of historical reason for doing it for obvious reasons. But, of course, its large minority population would never stand for it. Then there’s Texas, which likes to think it has one foot out the door already. But while hysterical Texas Republicans talk a good game, the state is shifting blue too fast and it’s difficult for me to imagine them actually pulling it off. That leaves the small population, lily white plains states. I could see maybe Montana, Idaho, Montana or South Dakota being the state to break that particular glass.

And now we come to the part I don’t know what to expect — is it even possible that MAGA will “cross the Rubicon” and follow the Dear Leader towards the path of actual disunion?

That very important element of this dystopian hellscape scenario I simply can’t figure out. It’s possible, I guess, that Trump will finally saunter into political irrelevance when he demands he be “reinstated” or the Biden Administration be “nullified” and…nothing happens. Or, put another way, Trump’s power outside the MAGA base evaporates when this happens. Meanwhile, within the base, the fact that this didn’t happen will be see as yet another grievance to be thrown onto the funeral pyre.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way. Which, unto itself, is rather dark and disturbing. When the richest, most powerful country in the world has a 50/50 chance of a severe political crisis within days or weeks, that does tend to make one sit up and take notice.

Why The Cyber Ninjas Arizona Audit Could Be A Royal Clusterfuck


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m almost always wrong. I kind of got COVID19 right, but I wildly over estimated how deadly it would be. This happen, in large part, because I misjudged things from how hysterical the Chinese government was at the time it first popped out.

Anyway, having said that, the conditions are there, at least, for the Cyber Ninjas recount of Arizona votes to set off a cascading series of events that may lead to a severe political crisis in the United States by, say, August. (Or whenever they get done.)

I say this because Trump is setting expectations among the MAGA faithful in a very dangerous, corrosive manner. While Trump’s popularity has faded significantly with the general public, he still has absolute power over the Republican Party. As such, it’s easy to imagine a situation where Cyber Ninjas “proves” that he “won” Arizona and Trump takes this one fake victory in one state and begins to rant hysterically about how this “proves” that he has to be reinstated in the August-September timeframe.

I only pick August-September because August is a shitty month and also we’re coming up on the 20th anniversary of 9/11.

Anyhoo, this is where I just don’t know what is going to happen. It could really go either way. This “victory” could become nothing more than just another overheated FOX News talking point — or it could be the stepping off point to something far more ominous. As I keep writing, I could imagine Trump’s nuts rhetoric being taken both seriously and literally by MAGA state legisatures and they convene conventions to study the “nullificaton” of the Biden Adminstration.

These conventions turn into secessionist conventions….and away we go. But I don’t know. I just don’t know. It all could be just a bid dud and we get to enjoy hot girl summer. That is, of course, until next year when Republicans will do everything in their power to make it impossible for Democrats to keep control of Congress.

Sydney Powell, Cyber Ninjas’ Arizona Recount & The Prospect Of Second Civil War Caused By A Nullification Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The bolts continue to grow loose on the United States’ government. We have professional crazy personal Sydney Powell ranting about how Trump should be “reinstated” at the same time that Cyber Ninjas continue to work towards what seems to be their obvious goal of “proving” Trump won Arizona.

Now, as I keep saying, what makes all of this unnerving is, at this point, it could go either way. It could be that I’m really stretching to believe that should Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump won Arizona that that might be enough to get a number of MAGA state legislatures to convene conventions to weigh the practicality of “nullifying” the Biden Administration. These conventions could, in turn, become secession conventions once it becomes clear that ding-dong Trump’s ideas about nullification are, well, just stupid.

It could be all that happens is the Cyber Ninja results becoming nothing more than a talking point for MAGA thought leaders, but otherwise won’t mean anything at all. Republicans could just keep recounting various states over and over again and it won’t be until January 2025 that we have to worry about the real nullification crisis — this time sparked by a MAGA controlled Congress being unwilling to certify Biden’s win.

The only reason why I’m uneasy is it’s very easy to imagine the same dynamic that happened on January 6th happening again — only this time on a national level. Trump and other dipshit Republicans will rant about the need to nullify the Biden Administration — and then won’t know what to do when MAGA state legislatures take them both seriously and literally.

But, again, I could be really miscalculating things. It could be, thankfully, a big old dud. I honestly can’t tell what is going to happen right now.

Call The Cyber Ninjas Recount Of Arizona What It Is: Sedition


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has occurred to me that we’re so wrapped up in the MAGA-Trump Big Lie about the 2020 election that we’re missing something far more basic about what’s going on in Arizona: it’s sedition.

Arizona Republicans are actively working to “prove” that Trump “won” the 2020 election even though this has been proven to be complete bullshit over and over and over and over and over again. There comes a point when any such recount is, by definition, done with a bad faith agenda.

You can’t keep demanding a recount simply because you don’t like the result of the election. If you keep doing so, it becomes clear that your goal isn’t to find out the “truth,” it’s to give ding-dong Trump and his raving racist MAGA followers an excuse to destabilize the government.

Now, let me pause for a moment to say I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. So, maybe I’m just being hysterical again. After all, Trump is very lazy and, by some metrics, while his power over the Republican continues to be absolute, his influence elsewhere is waning.

So, I dunno. A lot depends on things that I can’t predict and Trump can’t control. It’s easy to imagine that my dystopian scenario of a nullification crisis leading to a secession crisis is just more of my usual “Trump derangement disorder.”

It’s just I can’t help the nagging feeling that the United States is careening towards a rather dramatic and stark choice. Either we have something akin to a secession crisis now, or we have it in 2024-2025. Either our democracy dies with the whimper of a transition to MAGA autocratic managed democracy or we have a civil war and some sort of opportunity to maybe revive our democracy. (But that is really assuming the absolute best possible endgame.)

I guess, in general, the issue is there is an existential rot at the core of our political system and the question for me is do we somehow magically continue to muddle our way through this or does the obvious happen.

Only time will tell.

The Dead Hand Of History & 2021’s Possible Secession Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing we saw after election night 2020 is, once history begins to have a certain momentum, someone, somewhere is going to pop up to take advantage of it. As such, the talk of recounts popping up here and there across the country is very, very dangerous because all we need is one (1) fraudulent “victory” on the part of Trump and the dead hand of history may take to some pretty dark places — like a secession crisis.

It’s very easy to imagine that initially we have some sort of “nullification” crisis in which Trump runs around the country having rallies where he demands the results of the 2020 election be nullified because he “won.” Because that’s a very dumb, batshit idea that is impossible to do, MAGA state legislatures will YOLO it and start to have secession conventions.

And, yet, it could be this is all a bunch of nothing. Trump talks a good game, but he’s way too lazy to actually do the hard work necessary to start a civil war in 2021. Really, that’s kind of the rub — it wouldn’t be Trump who did it. It would be us. We would do it to ourselves.

The issue is, does this crisis happen this year because of fucking Cyber Ninjas (and others) or does it happen in 2024-2025 because a MAGA controlled Congress tells us all to fuck off and nullifies any Electoral College result it doesn’t approve of. That, no matter what, would be the real moment of truth. Either it becomes conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become president is if Democrats control Congress, or we have a civil war and answer the question of what America is supposed to be, that way.

I honestly don’t what which will happen right now. It’s one of those things where a lot of metrics are flashing red…and it could be that we manage to drift through this particular crisis and nothing really bad happens. Or, if Republicans do again take power — which the ebb and flow of history says they inevitable will — that instead of freaking out and turning us into Trumplandia, we come to some sort of an agreement whereby hard power for generations will be in Republican minority white hands, while soft power will remain in liberal hands via the infotainment industrial complex.

That, I’m afraid, is a very, very sanguine take on our prospects.

More likely we’re pretty much just going to face autocracy or civil war. That’s it — no middle ground any more. But, we’ll see. I’m often wrong.

Questions That Will Determine Our Political Fate


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. If Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won,” does anyone care?
    The bullshit recount in Arizona of that state’s 2020 presidential election results is suppose to wrap up in the next few days if memory serves right. I thought it was going to be in mid-to-late May, if I recall. Trump is already doing that thing where he pins all his hopes on one thing, causing his supporters to do the same thing.

    Given that Cyber Ninjas know that, it’s very possible that they’ll give Trump the “win” there that he craves. The question is, what next? Will anyone care? You can make the case either way. Either it’s a meh or it’s a huge fucking deal that brings the country to its knees.

    And, right now, I can’t figure out which one it’s going to be. It’s easy to imagine the same dynamic as January 6th, only on a national scale. Trump races around the country, egging state MAGA state legislatures on. They first want to look in to “nullifying” the Biden Administration, and before you know, we have a full blown secession crisis.

    Or nothing happens and we all laugh at how Trump has gotten himself worked up over nothing — again.
  2. What happens if Trump actually does get indicted?
    First, I seriously doubt Trump is ever going to suffer any accountability for anything he ever has done. Or, put another way, if we expect that to ever happen, we’re going to have to throw all our hopes on the Republicans suffering a historic, catastrophic defeat in 2022 specifically because they’ve tied themselves so tightly to Trump. If the result is muddled or open to interpretation, then, lulz, Trump is the nominee in 2024 and we have to go through Trump’s bullshit all over again.

    But if he does get indicted, I wouldn’t get too excited. There are a dozen would-be MAGA autocrats waiting in the wings to lead Trumpism without Trump. To be the person who turns us into an autocratic managed democracy like Putin’s Russia. They will purge the media and render all opposition null, even more so than what already exists. ICE will be weaponized and people like me who absolutely refuse to shut the fuck up will be pushed out of windows.

    So, I dunno. I suppose a Trump indictment might be one way to end him as a problem, but there’s just too much momentum with MAGA right now. Even without Trump, it’s pretty clear how easy it will be to turn America into an autocratic managed democracy. So, lulz. An Trump indictment would not be any sort of quick fix to the Trump-MAGA problem we face.
  3. Autocracy or Civil War?
    I have long said that this particular question is the one that we’re going to slam into in a rather abrupt fashion sooner than you might think. And, really, this question is more about “Will MAGA Republicans bungle the transition?” than anything else. It’s very easy to imagine our democracy simply fading away as it becomes conventional wisdom that a Democrat can only become president if Democrats also control Congress. People give up on voting because it’s become so difficult and we turn into a Russia clone politically, where everything revolves around “blood and soil.”

    This hasn’t happened yet. It will be interesting to see how close I am to being right about this absolute choice we may have to make…no later than 2024-2025.

The Curious Case Of Modern American Politics


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On one hand, American politics has snapped back into something akin to “normal” now that ding-dong Trump has been deplatformed and kicked out of office. And, yet, there are some pretty crazy things happening here and there that are so wild that it makes you wonder not if we’re going to have a civil war of some sort, but when.

Here and there, there are pings that everything I’ve been worried about for the last few months is still there. We have the Cyber Ninjas in Arizona still hard at work to prove somehow, anyhow that Trump “won” the state through some nefarious deep state efforts. Trump’s absolute control over the Republican Party grows tighter and tighter.

And, yet, at the same time, its becoming clear that, in a sense, non-Republican Americans have moved on. The fact that there are a dozen would-be autocrats waiting in the wings to replace Trump the moment he bows out, doesn’t exactly make me feel any better.

The point — what should be happening, isn’t happening. Which is good. What should be happening is it becoming absolutely clear that Cyber Ninjas is going to “prove” Trump “won” and that Trump is going to start up his rallies again, demanding that he be named the rightful president because, lulz. That starts a nullification crisis and then a civil war.

For the time being, at least, we’re in a holding pattern to see what Cyber Ninjas finally pull out of their asses. And, at least as of right this moment, it seems possible that even if Trump does scream at the top of his lungs that he’s “really” POTUS that…nothing will happnen.

My guess is if this happens, we’re just not there yet.

It really will be the 2024-2025 timeframe when we face the very, very stark choice of autocracy or civil war.

And I honestly don’t know which one will will pick.