Tag: Broadway

Revisiting The Potential Future Of Hollywood & AI-Generated ‘Immersive Media’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone from the Los Angeles area looked at one of my blog posts about AI and “immersive media” from a while ago, so that got me thinking about where things stand now. I still think that live theatre is the future. I still think that, by say, 2030, Broadway will, in some way, replace Hollywood as the destination of young men and women who want to act for a living.

It could be a few years beyond that, but it’s coming. I say this because there is a capitalistic imperative to essentially replace all — all — of Hollywood with AI generated art. This is all going to happen in the context of what I call the “Petite Singularity” that I predict is going to happen by the end of the decade.

We may not be uploading our minds into the cloud, but there is going to be a lot of future shock. I mean, I got into an argument with an AI recently where I found myself saying “I’m sorry” like I was arguing with a passive-aggressive woman. Ugh.

So, the technology is zooming towards us. I hold to my prediction that at some point in the near future, your TV will scan your face and generate very personalized content based on existing IP. It will, on the fly, generate, say, a new Star Wars movie that is a bit darker than the usual fair, just because that is your mood at that specific moment.

There will be no shared reality. We’ll all have our own little media cocoons that we live in. We won’t be able to have any water cooler talk — at all — because we’ll all be watching slightly different versions of the same show.

Anyway, it’s a future we’re going to have to prepare for. I still believe that there might be a really big shift away from movie theatres towards live theatre. If you’re a 15-year-old, you’ll go to live theatre with your date instead of a movie because, well, movies in that context won’t exist anymore.

And all of this will happen really, really fast. Too fast for anyone to process it.

The thing I have my doubts about now is the idea that anyone will use the Apple Vision Pro. I may have gotten that part of my prediction just plain wrong. While I do think that Augmented Reality has a bright future, Virtuality Reality…not so much.

I just don’t see the usecase for it. At least not in the near term. I suppose it might be good for immersive media, but that’s a lot closer to 20 years from now, not five or six. The technology just isn’t there yet. And the goggles will have to be a lot less bulky.

I’m still waiting for my “MindCap,” something similar to the technology in 3001: Final Odyssey or maybe Strange Days. Anyway, regardless, if we can somehow avoid a civil war, revolution and or WW3 in the next few months, something interesting might happen.

Of AI & Music

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are moving rapidly when it comes to AI-generated music. There are now at least two services — Suno and Udio — that allow you to write a prompt that generates songs with lyrics.

It definitely seems as though we may be about to enter A New Age when it comes to pop music when such music, if it hits the zeitgeist just right, may become as popular as human-generated music.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of the possibility that the estates of long-dead artists might license their audio “likeness” to AI companies so a zillian songs-in-the-style of The Rolling Stones, or The Beatles or whomever could be generated on the fly in an ad hoc way by millions of people around the globe.

This is obviously a ping from a future where AI takes over all forms of art. Most art will be AI generated to the point that it crowds out human-generated art. And I still think that it is inevitable that consumers will come to value human-generated art over AI-generated art, no matter the quality.

This would be a similar situation to what happens in the movie Blade Runner where the ownership of “real” animals is a big deal. As such, I could see live experiences ranging from live theatre to sports to music concerts all seeing a real uptick in their cultural value.

We may see a day soon where young would-be starlets go to Broadway instead of Hollywood to find fame and fortune because, lulz, Hollywood will just be a bunch of 1s and 0s.

I can’t predict the future, though, I don’t know for sure any such thing will happen. But it’s definitely a possibility.

‘R.I.P. Hollywood’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of pure human greed, I do believe that there is a real risk that Hollywood as we know it may be about to be totally disrupted by generative AI. A lot of people seem blinded to the potential capability of generative AI while at the same time being so blinded by their love of human Hollywood that they miss how severe the disruption is about to be.

I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know for sure, but I do think that at some point in the future the very idea of a “movie” will change to the point that rather than one version of a movie that everyone watches, there may be millions of slightly different movies generated by AI.

Throw in the rise of VR and there’s a chance that we’ll all “play” our movies like video games in immersive environments.

I continue to believe that the key issue is how fast all of this is going to happen. It could boil down to just one severe recession. And I think there will be a lot of calls for carve outs to protect human jobs.

What’s more, in the end, the live experience will gain a huge amount of cultural value to the point that there will be a huge surge of interest in sports, live theatre and music concerts. There is even a chance that instead of going to Hollywood, young starlets will try to make it big on Broadway.

Video: Mulling The Petite Singularity

Petite Singularity: The Combination Of AI, Robot Tech and Apple Vision Pro Will Lurch Us Into The Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m well aware of all the problems with both Apple Vision Pro and existing AI models. But I’m old enough to remember the early days of the Internet and how in fits and starts that technology gradually took over the world.

Again, remember, before I continue that there IS the issue of The Fourth Turning to worry about. It could be that much like WW2 delayed the development of TV, so, too, will the collapse of the US and WW3 could delay the actual Petite Singularity from happening.

But back to the point — when AI Generated Media is available on something like an Apple Vision Pro, then, lulz, we’re definitely in a Burn, Hollywood, Burn type scenario. In fact, the only way I could see Hollywood surviving such a thing is Washington passing some sort of carve outs for humans created art.

I could also see passive, human Hollywood surviving in some way if we, as a society, begin to give human-made media some sort of specific cultural value. In line with that, I could see Broadway really becoming culturally white-hot because Hollywood has been consumed by the technologies associated with the Petite Singularity.

And that doesn’t even begin to address how things might be disrupted if we can figure out a way to stick LLMs into android technology. It’s at least possible that if all the DDD jobs that immigrants come to the US to fill simply are done by androids…that MIGHT solve our border crisis. (Though, I will not that the racism of the Right is white hot that it could take decades for them to calm down about the lack of those sweet, sweet white babies — even if technology makes their concerns moot.)

Who knows. I can’t predict the future. But I do think that the next 18-odd months could be some of the most eventful on both a technological and political manner in recent human history.

Streaming, AI & The Return Of Live Theatre

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that the issue of the entertainment business shifting into streaming could be looked back upon as rather quaint. The issue is — some spunky start-up is going to come out with an AI generated movie within 18 months and, well, there you go.

When that happens, it’s just a quick jaunt to AI digital assistants churning out personalized movies and TV shows out of whole cloth without any humans being involved in the process. This is probably going to happen REALLY FAST to the point that virtually overnight all the hand wringing over the transition to streaming will just fade away.

But for the moment, I’m at a loss as to what to do about streaming. It’s such a structural shift in how entertainment is distributed that….I dunno. There definitely seems to be a chance that number of movie theatres may grow smaller and smaller.

And, yet, as I mentioned, if AI takes over, there is likely going to be a real demand for live theatre again. So, maybe some number of movie theatres will be turned into live theatre venues? That certainly would be a strange future. But I suppose I’m something of an optimist when it comes to “human generated art.”

At some point, people are going to grow tired of an endless array of AI generated TV shows and movies and they’re going to want something created by humans — and that will lead to the potential return of live theatre being the center of the artistic world.

Maybe. It’s possible. I man can dream, can’t he?

Of AI & Hollywood: Hear, Hear Justine Bateman

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The latest episode of The Town evoked a strong reaction. I was stunned that the producer of the podcast stepped in at one point and said that he didn’t believe anyone would watch an AI generated movie. Oh boy. Talk about clueless. The guest on the episode, Justine Bateman, was totally spot on with a number of the points that she made.

The issue being — she’s right that SAG should have gotten a definition of what an “actor” is like the DGA and the WGA got for director and writer. The thing for me is we’re zooming towards an era in which 99.9% of Hollywood movies are AI generated. To the point that “artisanal” movies will be given special value. And it’s also possible that as such, Broadway and other live theatre will see a sudden surge in interest because of the “human touch.”

But, otherwise, the Hollywood of the future is going to be just Suits and Programmers. There will be no directors, writers or actors. Everything will be AI generated. It was heartening how much Ms. Bateman echoed a lot of the writing I’ve done on this blog since ChatGPT first came out.

And, really, I fear there’s not a lot that people like Ms. Bateman can do to stop the looming AI transformation of Hollywood. All types of entertainment and art will be totally “disrupted” by AI over the next 18 months. To the point that we might be having a “Fourth Turning” politically in late 2024, early 2025 just as we’re also having a “Petite Singularity” technologically.

Regardless, the next year or so could be extremely bumpy. Some pretty dramatic things could happen starting in late 2024, early 2025 that totally transformed the everyday lives of billions of people across the globe.

A.I. May Soon Make The Hollywood Writers’ Strike Moot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about A.I. that a lot of my fellow writers — many of the far better writers than I will ever be — miss is that most people watch and enjoy dreck. As such, whatever A.I. produces just have to be good enough to be on in the background of daily life for most people to accept it without even thinking about it.

As such, I think there is a real possibility that if the Hollywood writers’ strike lingers long enough that A.I. will not just break the strike, but render it moot. Barring something I can’t predict — I am wrong all the time, afterall — it definitely seems as though Hollywood is on the cusp of being radically transformed — “Moneyballed,” if you will — to the point that the only people making any money will be studio execs and actors who live passively off of full body scans.

And that’s if the actors are lucky!

It could be that ultimately even actors will be rendered moot as a cost-cutting measure on the part of Hollywood studios. All those 90s dystopian movies about faux movie stars generated by AI will become a reality and people will grow to have parasocial relationships with stars that don’t even exist in reality at all.

Stranger things, and all that.

If you throw in the growing likelihood of a severe economic downturn happening very, very soon because the US defaults, well, there you go. Before you know it, people will turn to Broadway and their local live theatre if they want to have any sort of human-generated entertainment.

Will A.I. Bring A Broadway Renaissance As Hollywood Fades?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As is suggested in the movie “La La Land,” there is still a lot of truth to the myth that young people with a few bucks in their pockets make their way to Los Angeles in hopes of making it big in Hollywood. The rise of A.I. generated entertainment might change all of that, however.

Instead of going to Hollywood, young people in the near future might flock to New York City in hopes of making it big on Broadway and leveraging that fame to get a full body scan that will allow them to live passively off the scans use for years to come.

I say this because I wonder if the potential death of mass media because of A.I. generated entertainment might might lead to people turning to live theatre in a way not seen since before the advent of Hollywood in the first place.

I’m not saying I think this will happen for sure, but it’s definitely a possibility. It’s very easy to imagine a future where AI has grown so powerful that we have a “Her” movie situation. Instead of paying $15 a month for Netflix, we will pay a similar amount for access to the “scans” of actors over the years that we can use to populate our very, very specific movies.

Now here’s another interesting idea — will there be any market for mass media entertainment at all outside of the theatre or will everyone just use A.I. to generate very personalized entertainment? There won’t even be a need for a prompt — your digital personal assistant will just know you so well that you sit down and watch entertainment it generates on the fly based on what it knows about your personality from use.

But I still think it’s possible that live theatre — and Broadway specifically — could balloon in cultural significance as we transition away from Hollywood having any humans involved.