Tag: Brexit

The Special Relationship: Brexit & American Disunion


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The “special relationship” between the United States and the UK is something the Brits think about a lot more than the Americans. Americans think of the UK as smarter, more sophisticated cousin who listens to better music and calls soccer football. Meanwhile, the Brits seem to hang on our every word and struggle to keep the special relationship, special.

I mention this because on a macro political level, the United States and the United Kingdom have, for decades now, been in lockstep. Where one nation goes politically, the other is soon to follow. It’s gotten kind of eerie at this point. What is Boris Johnson, but Great Britain’s Donald Trump?

So, you can understand my alarm when there is growing talk of Scotland leaving the UK as a consequence of Brexit. It makes me wonder if the United States might have some sort of secession crisis far sooner than any of us suspect. As an aside, I still find how blasé the Brits are about Scotland leaving after hundreds of years rather startling. But you do you, guys.

It definitely seems as though the forces of disunion are growing in strength in the United States. And, yet, for the time being, it’s all an abstract. Sure, there are plenty of fucking shithead cocksucker MAGA-Qanon-Patriot Party people who want Trump to somehow “cross the Rubicon” and take “total control,” but it’s more their frustration with Trump not being an autocrat than anything they can actually pull off at the moment.

Or, if they do pull it off, it would be through something rather spectacular and unexpected.

I’m just worried that if Scotland really does leave the UK that that, in itself, will give strength to similar secessionist dreams in the United States. And, I would note, we really need to keep and eye on Brexit. That, in itself, could be a massive clusterfuck with some pretty dramatic side-effects in the global economy.

Only time will tell.

Could Post-Brexit England Join The American Union?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given what a shit-show American politics has been the last five years, and how much it’s grated on my nerves to hear non-Americans tell me what they think should happen to my country, I probably shouldn’t talk about this. But no one listens to me, so here we go.

Let me join your Union!

Is it possible that the problems of the Anglo-American world could be fixed if England joined the United States? Let’s look into this.

As it stands, the UK is slouching towards dissolution as Scotland wants to leave the UK to rejoin the EU. If successful, Ireland would likely re-unite and Wales would bounce. So, you would have England all alone, struggling to look for a way to come back without sheepishly, hat-in-hand, going back to the EU and reforming the UK under a different legal framework.

So, why not join the US instead?

Here’s the state of play — first, England would have to make a decision about the Monarchy. Either they tell the Queen to go to Canada, or they don’t. If they don’t, then the Americans would have to pass a Constitutional Amendment allowing a state NOT to have a “republican form of government.”

Given how divided the United States is right now, that seems like a tough sell.

So, let’s say the Queen leaves for Ottawa, clearing that hurdle. Well, the argument could be made this would be an easy sell across the political spectrum. England would be ripe for the Tories to become Republicans. The addition of Labour and the LibDems into the American Electoral College system would be…interesting.

What would likely happen is there would be something of a revolution in the UK as Tories-now-Republicans were expected to tow the bonkers agenda of the modern Republican Party. Or, put another way, it would likely take a decade for the English political system to sort itself out as some Tories became Republicans, while a lot of Tories and LibDems became Democrats and Labour just, well, became as irrelevant as it is now anyway.

It’s possible that once Americans overcame their 50+ stars on the flag phobia, that letting the huge England into the Union would give the Democrats the leverage to add DC and Puerto Rico as states. I would propose that the State of England’s addition would help everyone involved (after some pretty massive bumps in the beginning) and maybe even help the United States avoid a civil war.

The reason being — the influx of a bunch of white people into the Union might cause racist fuck Republicans to calm the fuck down for a generation, long enough for the browning of America to happen without American imploding and using WMD on ourselves.

But there would be pretty significant consequences to the lives of average English people. The NHS would probably be ruled unConstitutional almost immediately. Taxes would be slashed down to virtually nothing and government services would declined accordingly. There would likely be a massive, massive brain drain as American English decided to look for a better life in the lower 48.

And there might be a sense of cultural isolation in Europe. The American educational system would likely replace the traditional British version. And, to some extent, everything would suck. And, yet, the case could be made that a massive amount of unlocked potential would be tapped as the State of England became tighter with the other parts of the Union.

No one listens to me. That’s probably a good thing.

Apocalypse Now: Brexit, Impeachment, & Wuhan

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are happening at the same time on a macro historical level at the moment and there’s a least a chance that they will begin to influence each other.

Brexit
As I understand it, Brexit is going to happen on Jan. 31, one way or another. I haven’t really kept up with how “hard” it’s meant to be, but it’s definitely going to cause some disruption in things in the short term.

Impeachment
We are rushing towards a pretty unsatisfactory conclusion on impeachment, with Trump being acquitted out of hand by the Senate for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is beholden to House Trump and only see democracy as a means to an end.

Wuhan
We haven’t had a pandemic in just under over 100 years. If we had a once-a-century pandemic given modern transportation, there’s a good chance the death toll would be far higher than any of us could possibly imagine.

As of right now, these three things are happening separate of each other. But there’s a least a small chance that will change. There’s a chance that there may come a point in the near future when they begin to at least influence each other in some way.

Say, for instance, that somehow we get a longer impeachment trial, long enough that the economic effects of Brexit begin to influence politics in the United States enough that public opinion begins to shift on Trump. This is probably highly unlikely — Trump’s probably going to be acquitted in a matter of hours, it seems. But if there was a longer trial, then there’s more chance that if the Wuhan virus begins to kill people at pandemic levels in the next few weeks, then all three things would influence each other.

What’s more likely to happen is something like this — there’s a short trial. Trump’s “vindicated.” And then all breaks loose. Then we see the one two punch of Brexit and Wuhan strike. It is the stress of finally having a crisis that is not a self-own that drives Trump completely bonkers. And given that use of the 25th Amendment to remove a president is a dead letter, then we would have a worse-case-scenario on our hands.

Trump complete and total lack of leadership would only make a bad situation far, far worse. In the end, the fate of humanity might be at stake and I honestly don’t have a ready answer as to the outcome.

‘Remain’ — #Lyrics To A Pop Ballad Ode To Brexit

Shelton Bumgarner

The point of this is it’s supposed to be vague enough that it might be about a couple’s break up on a romantic level. There’s a bit of deflection for poetic effect. I have no idea why write these lyrics. It’s a complete waste of time. I don’t know anything about music and, besides, the entire system is designed to prevent people like me from breaking into it — especially at such an “advanced” age. But this idea came to me and I thought I’d share. Maybe someone, somewhere, can do something with hit. I would, at least, like credit.

Remain
lyrics by Shelton Bumgarner
@sheltgarner
please give credit if you produce or perform

things were never good
but never this bad
it’s breaking me up
making the dust scatter
as my state of mind feels a death rattle
I just want you to remain
remain
remain
remain

remain
it’s not a complaint
just a statement of faith
remain, remain, remain, remain

we’re going buckle the order
and sow discord
just because of the lies we told
my health is getting worse
no funds to pay for an upgrade
why did it have to end this way
I just wanted to say
remain
remain
remain

remain
it’s not a complaint
just a statement of faith
remain, remain, remain, remain

(bridge)
I’ll leave ’cause I must
my heart has spoken
but my mind is a bust
this union end’s is hard
no deals left to make
I just wish we’d remain
together

remain
remain
remain
remain

An American Makes The Case For Remain #Brexit #StopTheCoup

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It definitely seems as though the Americans and the British are trying to on-up each other on political stupidity mixed with needless tragedy. Both MAGA and Brexit are, at their core, self-owns on a strategic level. I’m not British, but I would like to take this opportunity to make my own case for Remain.

As I understand it, one of the arguments of those who say “Brexit means Brexit” is that it’s the “will of the people.” And, yet, as is often noted, No Deal Brexit was not on the ballot. As such, that, in itself, I feel enough to negate any further push towards Brexit for the time being.

I would also note that given how close the vote was and how obviously the whole thing was passed on a series of lies, the need for the consent of Parliament becomes ever more obvious. So, to claim that not allowing Brexit to happen is against “the will of the people” is rather disingenuous on the face of it.

While all of this may be true on a theoretical level, there is problem that if you did put the brakes on Brexit the very forces that caused the whole thing to happen in the first place would pop out again. And that’s an issue that is extremely difficult for me to figure out how to fix.

It’s that a small, organize minority — much like MAGA in the United States — is more than willing to drive the entire country off a cliff for its own selfish ends that makes you realize it’s unlikely that anything but No Deal Brexit is going to happen.

I’ve idly mused about a Very British Revolution that would revoke Article 50. But the chances of that seem to be growing far less by the moment. Boris Johnson hasn’t made the strategic screw ups he would have to make for that to happen. It seems like either the whole thing will be punted down the road again or there will be No Deal Brexit and any catastrophes will happen after that.

It is eerie how similar MAGA and Brexit is. Spooky even. Both are based fundamentally on lies and a fear of the “other.” How either America or Great Britain will fix these chronic problems in real terms is anyone’s guess at this point.

The Last Taboo #Brexit #StopTheCoup

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let me be absolutely clear — I’m a nobody American in the middle of nowhere. No one reads this blog and so, relative to my point of view, I’m kinda talking to myself. I just find myself growing ever more alarmed with what’s going on in the UK and feel compelled to write about it.

The Brexit crisis in the UK continues to be chronic. The two sides are growing ever more angry at each other. But, so far, there’s no sense of radicalization. Everyone wants to at least pretend to work within the existing Constitutional structure. As such, I have yet to see anything concrete that would indicate all of this won’t be solved politically.

For what I fear will happen, to happen, something has to change. Someone — like doofus Boris Johnson — would have to make a strategic error that would radicalize things. When he prorogued Parliament, he came pretty close to doing it. And, yet, I can see a lot of ways this will either be punted down the road or simply solved politically via a General Election. The Government would have to make a major power grab in a ham handed manner that would shock and enrage the populace to such an extent that talk of extra-Constitutional methods of solving the problem would start to be taken seriously.

The key issue right now is both sides are beginning to think they have a legitimate claim to having their will enacted. Brexiters think “Brexit is Brexit” and say the the referendum’s results give them the right to make Brexit — even No Deal Brexit — a reality. Meanwhile, Remain thinks that given it’s self-evident that No Deal Brexit would be a complete clusterfuck that maybe there should be some more debate on the issue.

What I fear will happen is there will be a succession of power grabs and miscalculations on the part of the Government such that people begin to think there simply can not be a peaceful political outcome to all of this. And once you cross that Rubicon, things could grow pretty spectacular pretty quick.

The Last Taboo might be broken — people will start seizing shit. Parliament might tell radicalize enough that they would go rouge en masse. Then what? Would the Government risk the optics of the military force being used to disband Parliament? From where I am in the States, at least, it wouldn’t take too much for Remain protesters to become republican revolutionaries. Revoking Article 50 would be the initial goal of such a revolutionary government, but that would, of course, only be the beginning to a much broader event in history.

All that is just the absolute worst case scenario. I don’t want anyone to get hurt. So, I think — I hope — things will calm down and be solved politically one way or another.

The Republic of England & The Queen Of Canada #Brexit #StopTheCoup

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Absolutely no one reads this blog, so I feel comfortable indulging my personal love of scenarios here without much thought that anyone is actually take issue with it. And if they do — I don’t mean to advocate anything. Sometimes I grow a little obsessive with my flights of fancy and write a lot about something I have no business writing about.

So, here I am again, mulling A Very British Revolution. The scenario goes like this — sometime very soon, the Government (Brexiters) and Parliament (Remainers) find themselves on a collision course. The scenario only works if Parliament, sensing it has the support of the populace, tells Boris Johnson’s Government to fuck off. I just don’t see this happening, but for the sake of the scenario, let’s say it happens. If this did happen, the things would grow pretty momentus pretty quick. It would not be too difficult to assume that Parliament would find itself in the position of nearly being forced to form a Revolutionary Government of its own. If they had their wits about them, they would use their popular support among Londoners to seize City Hall, the BBC and the police.

At this point, things would grow murky. I would propose that they would feel a lot of pressure to form a Republican Parliament that would abolish the monarchy. One issue would be what would happen to the other divisions of the UK. In a way, the case could be made that you could probably keep Scotland in the new republic a lot easier than you might think. In fact, I would use revoking Article 50 as a bargaining chip to keep Scotland joined with the England. You promise the Scots a written constitution that would give them formalized rights much like an American state. This would avoid the Scots having to formally leave the EU in the first place and keep the some semblance of the UK effectively in existence. If you can keep the Scots, you can keep the rest of the country together. (Which to me would be the goal in the first place.)

What you would call this new country is anyone’s guess. United States of Britain? United Republics of Great Britain? And then if you want to get all technical about it, the issue of the flag would also be up for debate, I guess. But I don’t really know enough about that to be able to pace that part of the scenario out.

But all of that is the absolute worse case scenario. That would be the political equivalent of an asteroid striking the planet. In all likelihood, either the bad guys of Boris Johnson’s tinpot dictatorship Government wins or the whole thing is punted down the road again. Or the real damage, the real crisis happens after No Deal Brexit itself.

As I have noted before, just because you had a revolution in Great Britain, doesn’t mean you wouldn’t have a civil war immediately afterwards. Just because the Government lost the mandate of heaven, doesn’t mean it wouldn’t go down fighting. And if things have gotten so bad that the Crown is overthrown, then all bets are off. People would likely get hurt and I definitely don’t want that. That’s why this is just me idly mulling possibilities for my own “enjoyment.” The moment any of this scenario becomes a reality, it won’t be much fun at all.

But if the United Republics of Great Britain did manage to survive a Second English Civil War, I would guess the Crown would leave for the bosom of Canada. That makes the most sense. I guess. It would be a bit surreal — much like when the Portuguese crown fled to Brazil during the Napoleonic Wars.

And, really, me writing about this says more about me being unhappy that nothing seems to stop Trump from turning the States into an authoritarian state than my desire to see a revolution in Great Britain. I just wish the Good Guys could win in Great Britain and maybe encourage Americans to have a little bit more spunk in their resistance to Trump.

Let me stress, I don’t want anyone to get hurt and I’m not advocating anything. It’s not my country and I know real people would be involved — and put in danger — if any of what I’ve suggested were to actually happen. And, again, no one reads this blog so it’s not like anyone should care what I have to say. I’m just a nobody in the States looking across the pond with growing unease as to what’s happening in the UK.

Boris Johnson Seems Hell Bent On Becoming A Tinpot Dictator #Brexit #StopTheCoup

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let me get some things out of the way. First, I’m not British and I’m not in the UK so I feel my ability to express my opinion is limited. Or, if nothing else, I encourage you to actively ignore my views and simply read this for infotainment, if nothing else. Also, very, very few people read this blog so I feel like I’m simply talking to myself. But I can, if nothing else, simply try to give my value-free opinions on things going on in Great Britain right now.

The rise of Trump has taught Americans, or at least me, that in the modern age the bad guys always win. So, in a sense, I’m not expecting anything unexpected to happen in the next week. I think Boris Johnson’s government will “win” one way or another. No Deal Brexit will happen on Oct. 31st and that will be that. The Anglophonic portion of the Western World will lurch closer to a dystopia and we’ll all shrug and go back to enjoying our sucky world.

But the argument could be made the conditions are there for something pretty extraordinary to happen in the UK this week. We could find a situation where the Government and Parliament play a game of chicken to see who blinks first. If all else fails, Parliament might appeal to the populace to help them and then things get really interesting, really fast. I’m not advocating that, just observing that it’s possible. And I don’t even know enough in real terms to know if what I’m suggesting is even possible. I’m not claiming to know that. I like to run scenarios and this is just another scenario to entertain.

The reason why I don’t think this would happen is as far as I can tell, the leadership of Parliament just doesn’t have it in them to stand up to the Government in the way they would need to to be successful. It would take a lot — a lot — of courage to think outside the box to the extent necessary to pull of this scenario. And as of right now, neither side is radical enough. I think the Government from its actions definitely has decided to take whatever measures necessary to get its way. And I think both Parliament and the populace have not been pushed to the point that they’re willing to take the concrete measures to combat the Government’s moves. So, barring something truly extraordinary, the Government “wins” and that’s that. Everyone waits until post No Deal Brexit to see what happens.

I mean, what Parliament & the populace would have to do is so jaw dropping as to be outside the bounds of what most people would believe possible. Parliament would have to, effectively, declare war on the Government by not standing down as the Queen as ordered them to do. There’s a short distance from that form of open rebellion against the existing Constitutional order to a Revolutionary Government seizing London and declaring a republic. If that Revolutionary Government were to revoke Article 50 then, well, a civil war likely erupts. That doesn’t even begin to address the issue of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Or, hell, even Wales. This scenario would be, in a sense a sequel to 10 Days That Shook The World.

But like I said, I just don’t see the leadership existing. And I don’t want this to happen. I don’t want anyone to get hurt, full stop. I’m not British, so I think for everyone involved a political resolution is best for the UK. The States and the UK have long had a “special relationship” and so maybe post Brexit that will help,or something.

Though, in passing, the question of what would happen to the Queen in this scenario does arise. I have a hunch she would flee to Canada. That would be a bit surreal, but she would still have a large Commonwealth to “rule.” And, really, the strange thing about Brexit is how it is — at least from the States — appears to be an existential crisis for the Crown.

Anyway. I’m a nobody. Don’t listen to me.

V-Log: John Lennon, #Brexit & Mulling What Happens Next In The UK #StopTheCoup

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

If Trump has taught me anything, it’s that in the modern era the bad guys always win. So I’m generally rather pessimistic about what might happen in the UK in the next few days. But it is fun to daydream. Besides, no one listens to me anyway.

Regardless, here are some great protest songs for Remainers to use should the mood strike them.

V-Log: Boris Johnson Is Playing With Fire #Brexit #StopTheCoup

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m not British and as such I feel I have limited say in all of this. But I am a student of history and politics and so here’s a rambling v-log about what might happen in the coming days in Great Britain.

I don’t want anything dramatic to happen, but it definitely appears as though the conditions are now there for it to happen. But I have my doubts. I think either Johnson will win or the whole thing will be punted. The leadership of Parliament would really have to surprise me.

Otherwise, meh.