Tag: August Sucks

Back To The Nadir Of The Year

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, after about 24 hours of excitement, it seems like we’re back to just meh. Nothing of note is happening. And it could be that for the next few weeks that’s what it’s going to be like — just one long meh.

I still don’t know what’s going to happen this fall and winter. It really could go either way. It really could. It could be that, lulz, nothing happens. And it could be a regular HOLY SHIT moment in America’s history.

I hope all my ranting about the possibility of a civil war / revolution is totally wrong. But there is going to be a moment — maybe a few moments — during late 2024, early 2025 when we all have to take a deep breath and see which way things are headed.

But, maybe, the point is just to relax and enjoy not much going on. August, though, tends to be a pretty shitty month. So bad, maybe it would be better if it just didn’t exist.

Yet, who knows, maybe this year’s August will be different.

Let’s Run The ‘China Attacks Taiwan’ Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

August is careening towards us. And we all know that August sucks as a month. If something shitty is going to happen in 2021 – it’s probably going to happen in August.

So, let’s say it’s China going to war against Taiwan.

First, let me say, I have no expertise in this subject, so this is just a rough back-of-the-envelope scenario. But let’s suppose at some time in August, 2021, we find ourselves with a major East Asian war. What happens?

Well, at first, the United States would freak out. There would be a lot of rallying around the flag and Biden’s approval rating would skyrocket. And…then…once it became clear that the US wasn’t going, to, uh, blow the world up to save Taiwan, everything would go back to normal.

The center-Left would support Biden’s thoughtful, reserved approach, while the MAGA New Right would would suggest that what they believed all along — that Biden is “soft” on China — was right and why isn’t Trump president since he really won?

The other thing that would happen is such a huge event in the world would great destabilize everything. Flashpoints across the world would likely heatup for no other reason than a governments with an itch for conflict would say, “Well, China is scratching their itch, why can’t we do it?”

The DPRK is the country I would be most concerned with. It’s easy for me to imagine that as part of this scenario, that the DPRK would attack the ROK as some sort of Communist brothers-in-arms thing. In fact, I could even seen the PROC gently goading the DPRK into doing just that as a way of distracting the US so it could successfully secure Formosa.

Anyway, the whole thing would be a fucking clusterfuck. If China was cocky enough to attack Taiwan, then we really would be in a New Era. The entire post-WW2 liberal order would collapse and who knows what would replace it.