Tag: Arizona audit

‘will the USA end up in civil war 2021’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No.

Long Answer: Maybe. But it’s a lot more complicated than you might think. The MAGA New Right at this point just as an abstract belief that given that civil war is the worst thing they can think of, that that’s what’s going to happen sooner rather than later.

But beyond that, what exactly they expect to have happen is rather fuzzy.

All the typical MAGA New Right person knows is, in general terms, liberals are “driving them” to radicalization and violence. In other words, if only liberals would “leave them alone” they would have no reason to have such dark thoughts about a civil war that would bomb us all back to the stone age.

For there to be a civil war in 2021 as opposed to, say, January 2025, there would have be a pretty big political event that would push us into crisis. And from what I can tell of the web searches that bring people to this site, often times people seem to think more in terms of a populist MAGA New Right revolution than a state-level civil war.

This is a notion that I really struggle with. What the fuck are they hearing that would lead them to believe MAGA New Right people are going to simply, en masse rise up and over throw the government. This is very bonkers given the entire Republican organization is anti-democratic and will likely force the issue around January 2025 when a MAGA controlled Congress simply nullifies any Biden re-election.

There’s something going on that I don’t understand because I’m not involved in the MAGA New Right bullshit echo chamber. What I THINK is happening is, Far Right wing “thought leaders” have begun to babble about civil war / revolution happening NOW and that has people thinking about that to the point that they search for information about such things and end up at this site. The ironic thing being, of course, that we both have some pretty dark things on our minds, but coming from the exact opposite political directions.

What I fear, they hope for, in other words.

I fear a civil war, they want one so they have the opportunity to have some sort of liberal “final solution.”

And make no mistake, there are a number of things bouncing around the Far Right wing bullshit echo chamber that have led such people to believe a civil war could happen RIGHT NOW. One of them is the Cyber Ninjas recount bullshit in Arizona. On Twitter, at least, they never come out and say it — that they want to violently over throw the government if the Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” the state…but that sure is the implication of all their bonkers Waiting For Godot.

So, back to the question — could we have an actual civil war in the United States in 2021? A domestic 9/11-level type event would have to happen in such a way that states began to leave the Union for anything close to that to start happening this year.

Even then, Ii struggle to figure out what, specifically, could cause states to want to leave the Union after such a severe domestic terrorist attack. Just seems like if there’s going to be a civil war in the United States that isn’t in January 2025, it will be somehow connected to the 2022 mid-term certification instead.

So, in general, I understand — some degree — why people keep searching for a civil war happening in the United States in 2021, I struggle to think of anything, in concrete terms, that would cause one to happen.

Maybe in 2023 or 2025, though.

Cyber Ninjas, The Arizona ‘Audit,’ A Second American Civil War & My ‘Hysterical’ ‘Doom Shit’


Ender

As it stands, for a lot of MAGA New Right cocksuckers, the idea of a “civil war” is simply the worst possible thing they can think of. They talk about how liberals are “forcing” them to radicalize and to want a civil war, but all that’s going on is they’re snowflakes and a civil war is just the worst possible thing they can think of that might happen.

They’re politically pouting, in other words.

And, yet, as January 6th showed, there comes a point where overwrought rhetoric causes something to actually happen in the real world. In other words, things continue to be pretty frothy within the MAGA New Right. Even though the majority of establishment Republicans have moved on to Ron DeSantis, Trump continues to have an absolute lock on his personality death cult. They can’t wrap their minds around the very liberal democracy concept of if you don’t get enough votes, you don’t get to have power, so they suck their own cock thinking up ways that Trump “really” won.

Where things get dangerous is when things in the real world begin to have a momentum out of the control of the establishment that just wants to sit back enjoy that plutocrat tax cut and young hack MAGA judges and think about how they’re going to finally strangle American democracy and rule as a minority.

So, in a sense, Trump is now a lingering, festering political problem that Republicans would rather just use an ointment on. He just won’t go away. And if he runs again in 2024, he’s going to win the nomination either by co-opting DeSantis or destroying him.

If Trump can just get out of the way, America is going to peacefully transition into an “lite touch” autocracy that is at first is an autocracy because the disconnect between the will of the people and who actually runs the country will be so enormous that all this talk about “don’t boo, vote” will be looked back upon as quaint. Voting will be meaningless and Republicans will so rig the system that they always win, no matter what.

People will stop voting and we become an autocracy.

Of course, as I keep “hysterically” saying, there are two things to consider with my “doom shit.” One is, this process could be bungled — probably because Trump tries to be the one to finish the transition into autocracy — or form follows function like it always does and the fascists of the MAGA New Right will become…fascists. They’ll realize they now have absolutely no checks on their power and they’ll start to knock heads –specifically, probably mine.

(Thankfully, I have a passport again, but, lulz.)

Anyway, let’s pause for a moment to ruminate on how “hysterical” I’m being. The type of person who calls me “hysterical,” probably is a traditional conservative who is so worried about “woke corporations” that they simply want to nullify any political argument they don’t like. They can’t comphrend my “doom shit” happening in the United States, so, by definition, it can’t happen.

Lulz!

And, in a sense, they know they won’t have anything to worry about if a MAGA New Right autocracy is established — they always follow the rules — so it’s all an abstract. They have a job and kids and a mortgage to worry about. For me, however, since I won’t fucking shut up about what a fucking cocksuckers our new autocratic overlords are, I have some very concrete things I have to worry about.

And, in general, given what I keep seeing actually happening, people who claim my belief that we have the existential choice of autocracy or civil war ahead of us is “doom shit” are living a delusion. Soon enough, either we accept that Republicans have established white Christian minority rule, or we don’t. Either the transition into autocracy is peaceful and long-lasting, or it’s not.

I hate violence, but we definitely need to start thinking about what happens if the MAGA New Right either bungles what should be a peaceful transition into autocracy or they start to believe their own press about how great and wonderful a civil war would be. (Ugh.)

Anyway, every day I see evidence I’m not being “hysterical” and my “doom shit” is just reality. Now what.

The Curious Case Of The Cyber Ninjas Clusterfuck


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck is going on with Cyber Ninjas? Apparently, a big chunk of its leadership team got COVID19, but, lulz, what is real these days. If they are sick, I wish them a speedy recovery. But, fuck, this is all very surreal.

My biggest question is why did they report getting sick on the day of the deadline?

Anyway, the dangers associated with the Cyber Ninjas recount still exist. But there’s a chance that Cyber Ninjas is going to so screw all this up that they don’t even give the MAGA New Right thing ONE THING they were intended to — give them a talking point as to why “#TrumpWon.”

But Trump continues to inhabit a very strange place in our politics. In a sense, everyone — even the Republican Establishment — has moved on to Ron DeSantis (or whomever.) They want all the “cool” parts of Trump without Trump. They got their tax cut and young hack MAGA judges now they want someone young and organized to finally establish a white Christian ethno state.

And, yet, if the Cyber Ninjas can get their act together, it could be Trump who starts a civil war three or so years too early and leads to the complete destruction of the entire MAGA movement.

America Has A Very January 6th Vibe To It Today


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In general, the endgame of the bullshit Cyber Ninjas “audit” of the 2020 presidential election in Arizona seems to be come out swinging then walk it all back gradually as they’re forced to produce fact to backup their claims that “#TrumpWon.”

As of this writing, the audit’s results haven’t come out yet, but I will be flabbergasted if the Cyber Ninjas report doesn’t makes it clear that #TrumpWon, at least in their eyes.

The question is — then what?

If you keep an eye on the Twitter search for this subject, the usual suspects are growing hysterical…but they don’t seem to have any clear answer to, “and then what?” I’m assuming they think they can somehow magically decertify Biden’s win in at least Arizona with an eye to the whole thing.

Even though none of that is legally possible, that’s what they’re hoping for.

If you think about it, this is similar to the logic of January 6th where the MAGA New Right pinned all its hopes on Pence not doing the thing that he had to do, even if he didn’t want to: certify the vote.

The logic on the part of the MAGA New Right is so similar to what happened on January 6th that it’s enough to make one at least a little uneasy. Once the inevitable Cyber Ninjas “proof” comes out, then Trump is going to demand as many states that will listen “decertify” Biden’s win.

Then what?

When Trump isn’t magically re-instated, then they’re going to start talking about nullification or secession. The point of all of this is we could be careening towards a sharp, sudden and severe political crisis in the next few days.

And, yet, it could be that January 6th was a very specific set of circumstances — Trump was president at the time, afterall — and, lulz, it could be this bullshit just becomes another quiver in the #TrumpWon talking point list of things to say whenever a piviot is needed.

Who knows.

Will Cyber Ninjas’ Arizona Election Audit Cause An August Decertification Crisis?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve given it some thought, and it seems the point of the Cyber Ninjas bullshit is this — they put out a bullshit report today that “proves” Trump “won” Arizona, then they have a month to back up the results of their findings. Everything can fall apart, they can walkback the findings to the point of meaninglessness, but the fact will remain: for the MAGA New Right they will now have a talking point to piviot to whenever we findout Trump was selling human babies to ETs for experimentation. (I’m joking, I hope.)

So, both the bonkers idiots of MAGA will have what they want and normal fact base people will have what THEY want. It’s a win-win.

But there is a very real risk that just like with January 6th’s certification crisis in DC, we could have a national DECERTIFICATION crisis once Cyber Ninjas release their bullshit report today. (I guess there’s a chance they might actually lulz everything and admit that Trump didn’t win, but that would only cause someone else within the MAGA New Right to try AGAIN to prove Trump won. They’re not stopping until they get that fucking talking point.)

The interesting thing will be to see how quickly the call to “decertify” Biden’s win will happen. It will happen starting the moment the report comes out, I bet. It won’t matter that this is meaningless and idiotic, we live in an age of “gesture politics” and so the GOP wants images of “brave” Arizona law makers giving long speeches about how #TrumpWon and then they unanimously vote to decertify Biden’s win in the state.

Where thing goes from that point who knows. It could be that some sort of momentum builds and other states get all excited and decertify Biden’s win just because it makes the base feel better — this is what Trump wants, obviously — or it could be they will invite Cyber Ninjas into their state to pull the same bullshit.

The fact that a month from now Cyber Ninjas will release the “evidence” to support their bullshit findings and it turns out to be the sham that we all know it is, won’t matter. For Republicans, to be Republican means to believe #TrumpWon, no matter what they have to destroy, or break to prove that “fact.”

Are we going to have a civil war over this bullshit? I don’t know. The moment that bullshit report comes out and “proves” Trump “won” then, yes, the conditions will be there. But it could be I’m way ahead of myself and, thankfully, everything is going to be a big old dud.

Only time will tell.

Three Impending Potential Crisis Events That Could Be The Catalyst For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are three moments to think about in the future when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that faces us.

Near term: The Cyber Ninjas Arizona Recount
The Cyber Ninjas clusterfuck sham “audit” is one of those things I just can’t game out. I have no idea what the outcome of them “proving” that Trump “won” the state after all will be. Everything from civil war to it just being something Russian trolls piviot to on Twitter is a potential outcome. Trump already makes it clear he thinks he should be re-instated as POTUS as soon as possible.

I guess what I’m afraid of is a dynamic similar to what happened on January 6th, only on a national scale. The moment the Cyber Ninjas preliminary report is filed that tells Trump won, he’s going to freak the fuck out. Trump has a $100 million war chest to fuck things up, so maybe he would stop grifting long enough to use that money to put pressure on MAGA legislatures to have “Decertification Conventions?”

Or something like that.

And, yet, Trump pretty much has been saying this exact same thing — that if you’re MAGA and have the power to decertify Biden’s win in your state, get to it — and nothing has happened. It’s just kind of rolling around the far Right echo chamber with Mike Flynn. Something would have to change. People with something to lose would have to feel the base of the Republican Party was so juiced up with Big Lie rhetoric that they actually expected them to do something about it now that there was “proof” that Trump “won” Arizona.

Again, the Cyber Ninjas thing is something that is easy to imagine on paper, but in the real world…it could very well just become another MAGA New Right talking point for Jesse Kelly after he says, “Welcome To The New Right!” when he does something embarrassing he can’t properly defend.

I guess the point is — Cyber Ninjas in itself could be enough to push us into a some sort of secession crisis. And, yet, lulz. Who knows.

Middle Term: The 2022 mid-terms
It could be that what gets us is not Cyber Ninjas or the 2024 Congressional Nullification Crisis, but the 2022 mid-terms. It could be that we’re so fragile on a political level that just the added pressure of the mid-terms will be enough to cause us to collapse.

The way I imagine it happening wouldn’t be the mid-terms themselves, but what they would bring –a Republican controlled Congress. In this case, the civil war would happen not with Red States leaving the Union to form Trumplandia, but with Blue States leaving the Union when Speaker Trump impeaches both Biden and Harris and then incites a civil war when Senate Democrats won’t convict.

This option is a bit nebulous, but it is possible. It’s also possible that the mid-terms could turn tragic if it becomes really obvious that the Republican Party officially won’t brook the Democratic Party winning — ever. That might be enough to cause Blue States to bounce. Or not. Who knows.

Longer Term: The 2024 President Election
It seems to me that this is going to be it — if we make it through Cyber Ninjas and the 2022 midterms, it will be January 2025 that forces us to make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Everything will come to a head in late 2024 to early 2025. Long term metrics of politics and demographics will come to a sharp point. There will, at last, be no middle ground for anyone — autocracy or civil war.

Either we allow Republicans to nullify the result of a Biden win, there’s another (successful) insurrection to do just that or we have a fucking civil war. Everyone will have to take a side. No exceptions.

January 2025 is going to be a momentous year in our nation’s history — if we make it to that point. But we could doge the situation if a major regional war popped up or, I dunno, some sort of COVID19 variant popped out that killed millions.

Otherwise, we’re fucked on a political history basis.

The Dangerous Idiot — Cyber Ninjas, The Arizona ‘Audit’ & Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What makes Trump so dangerous is he keeps being himself when it comes to the sham Cyber Ninjas “audit” of the 2020 Arizona presidential election results, which leads you to wonder if something like a far worse version of January 6th could happen because of it.

Chauncy Gardner, only far more dangerous.

That’s the thing about Trump and January 6th — he had absolutely no idea what the endgame for his ranting would be. He’s not smart enough to do the basic autocratic plays necessary to pull off an actual coup, so he just ranted about the Big Lie in abstract terms.

So, Trump and his toadies went through all this trouble to see if they could get Pence to not certify the election, but they didn’t really think through the political or historical consequences of their actions. There was no guile, at least on Trump’s part. His January 6th machinations were little more than a very stupid political grunt.

The same thing with what’s going on with Cyber Ninjas in Arizona. Trump knows he wants to become president as quickly as possible — even if it means destroying the country in the process — but he’s a spoil little brat and thinks if he just uses The Secret enough that the law of attraction will make it happen. And, so, the rest of us are left wondering what’s going to happen.

To date, nothing has happened.

But Trump has begun to talk in concrete terms about the “decertification” of election results in states across the country and he honestly thinks he’s going to be “reinstated” because of such bullshit, even though it’s not, in anyway, possible.

And, as such, my prediction that we could go from “decertification” to “nullification” to “secession” seems a fair bet for a possible near future crisis.

But there’s a hitch.

On paper, it definitely seems as though my dystopian civil war scenario is possible. But at the same time, for such a thing to happen, Trump would have to not only go transaction in a concrete way, but Republicans in critical states would have to take him seriously and literally.

What Republicans like Trump want, I think, is simply have the abstract idea of decertification as a talking point to rile up the base and to make money. They see it as a possible way to maybe give Trump the option of being Speaker of the House when Republicans inevitably flip that chamber in 2022.

And, yet, as January 6th shows, it’s possible that things will take on a momentum all their own and if Trump rants about “decertification” enough, the the base will demand something be done about it. Then elected officials in MAGA states across the country will feel so much pressure that “Decertification Conventions” will be held.

Before you know it, because of mission creep, we go nullification then secession.

Then you start talking about the provisional Trumplandia federal government and how many Republicans are willing to jump off a cliff to join this new Red State collection of states.

But I think that at the moment, that’s really pushing things. Trump is all talk and a scaredy cat to boot. He just doesn’t have the autocratic chops to do all these dystopian things I come up with. This is something he’s proven again and again.

As such, I think we’re going to kick the crisis of civil war down the road until the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

Known Unknowns Of Trump’s Belief He Will Be ‘Reinstated’ By August


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have gamed out in pretty explicit detail on this blog my fears about what might happen this year should Cyber Ninjas “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona. It doesn’t matter that the whole thing is a fraud and a sham done to further Trump’s Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him — all he needs is a win, any win and he will hysterically say he is still “really” president.

Oh, now take a deep breath.

The crux of the crisis we may be facing is…then what? Trump’s popularity outside of the violent MAGA personality cult is seemingly at a historic low. And, yet, even at this nadir, Trump’s devotees are still a solid 20-30% of the electorate. Given that political science tells us it only takes an organized 5% of the population to take over a country, if Trump really leans into his bonkers belief that he has to be reinstated, well, we could be fucked.

Logically, Trump taking the sham Cyber Ninjas “win” and running with it to make surreal declarations about his return to the presidency would have him laughed off the public state. Or, at least, would be ignored to the point that the only place he can rant about it in public is OAN, NewsMax or FOX News. And, yet, this is Trump we’re talking about.

The Republican Establishment lives in abject fear of Trump because they’re afraid that if they don’t kowtow to him, he will bolt the party, taking a huge chunk of the Republican Party with him. As such, his hold over the Republican Party is near Hitler over Germany in early 1945 levels. It’s very easy to imagine that Trump might pull off one last hat trick and get elected Republicans across the country to entertain his insane rantings to the point that they convene some sort of conventions to study the idea of “nullifying” the Biden Administration.

Or something. Whatever method they picked, it would happen spontaneously and, at first at least, be done to “own the libs” and provoke a lot of ridicule from said libs. My fear is, all of this will turn pretty serious — and dark — pretty soon when suddenly what started off as a joke turns into a secession crisis.

As an aside, this does make one wonder which state might be the first to actually jump off the cliff for Trump and attempt to secede from the Union. There are so many to choose from. South Carolina seems the one to have some sort of historical reason for doing it for obvious reasons. But, of course, its large minority population would never stand for it. Then there’s Texas, which likes to think it has one foot out the door already. But while hysterical Texas Republicans talk a good game, the state is shifting blue too fast and it’s difficult for me to imagine them actually pulling it off. That leaves the small population, lily white plains states. I could see maybe Montana, Idaho, Montana or South Dakota being the state to break that particular glass.

And now we come to the part I don’t know what to expect — is it even possible that MAGA will “cross the Rubicon” and follow the Dear Leader towards the path of actual disunion?

That very important element of this dystopian hellscape scenario I simply can’t figure out. It’s possible, I guess, that Trump will finally saunter into political irrelevance when he demands he be “reinstated” or the Biden Administration be “nullified” and…nothing happens. Or, put another way, Trump’s power outside the MAGA base evaporates when this happens. Meanwhile, within the base, the fact that this didn’t happen will be see as yet another grievance to be thrown onto the funeral pyre.

So, I dunno. It really could go either way. Which, unto itself, is rather dark and disturbing. When the richest, most powerful country in the world has a 50/50 chance of a severe political crisis within days or weeks, that does tend to make one sit up and take notice.