Tag: American Ancien Regime

The Rise Of American ‘Racial Entrepreneurs’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m being extremely lazy with this post, but in reading Barbara F. Walter’s book about how civil wars start, I’m taken aback by how relevant the political science concept of the “racial entrepreneur” is relative to what’s going on in the United States right now.

These are people who latch on the simmering racial tension and stoke those tensions for their personal profit and glory.

While FOX News is full of such racial entrepreneurs, one sticks out as being the worst — Tucker Carlson. Trump, obviously, is one too, but he’s so stupid and lazy that he is, and always has been, nothing than an avatar, a vessel for white rage.

Meanwhile, Carlson is smart enough that he can articulate what a lot of white Christian Traditionalists are feeling about race in a far more cogent manner than Trump. Carlson is very, very popular with my Traditionalists relatives and I could easily, easily, EASILY see Carlson winning the GQP nomination should he throw his hat into the political ring.

But the popularity of Tucker Carlson definitely indicates that, as Ms. Walter suggests, we’re not only an anocracy, but we’re careening towards a civil war of some sort. I still think that we’re going to transition peacefully into autocracy for no other reason than the center-Left is so weak-willed and fractious that they’re not going to put up much of a fight when the time comes.

Not that I want a civil war. A Second American Civil War would be horrific and a tragedy of astonishing proportions. But at the moment, we’re 50 / 50 when it comes to becoming a Russia-style autocracy or having a civil war. I just can’t predict which direction we’re going to go. Which option we’re going to pick.

But the presence of racial entrepreneurs like Carlson and Trump definitely make one sit up and take notice. Their continued popularity indicates that the one thing that Traditionalists believe will happen — that they will get a President DeSantis and all the goodies of autocracy without the inevitable personal implications, just ain’t gunna happen.

You can’t have an autocracy without you, or someone you love inevitably crossing the autocrat. Once the government no longer gives a shit what the populace believes, well, we’re all fucked, regardless of our political views.

American Autocracy: Form Follows Function



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, I believe the United States will have one last democratic death rattle in 2024 – 2025 and then slip peacefully into autocracy. The MAGA New Right is ascendant and democracy itself is now seen through the prism of partisan politics.

Add to this the dearth of any form of principled leadership within Blue ranks and it seems that while there will be a lot of angry Twitter threads as our democracy finally dies, in the end, nothing much in the real world — where it matters — will be done about it.

For the first few months, nothing much will change in real terms. Republicans will gloat about being in power again and the autocrat (whomever that may be) will begin, slowly, but surely to use the levers of power to consolidate power. Gradually, in fits and starts, the United States will gradually come to resemble Hungary if we’re lucky and Russia if we’re not.

The big issue of 2025 – 2029 may be the autocrats demand that we have a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” It may be that this happens a lot later than I believe, for no other reason than there will be no need — Peter Thiel and other MAGA-friendly plutocrats will be given free reign to buy up whatever media companies they need to. This will be an end-run around freedom of speech guarantees.

The media will be purged soon enough and politics simply won’t be discussed in late night or anywhere else for that matter. CNN and MSNBC will become “NewsNation” clones, dedicated to bothsidesing things to the point that they no longer can tell the difference between the truth and a lie.

I believe all this because, like I said, there just isn’t any Blue leadership at the moment. And what Blue leadership there is, is actually anti-Trump Republicans like Liz Cheney. So, lulz. AOC is too young and too unserious at the moment to rise to the occasion like we need her to.

All of this is not abstract to me because I fucking refuse to shut up. I have had the luxury of being a drunk loudmouth in a Western democracy all my life. When that freedom of speech no longer exists, then, fuck the autocrat and fuck you if you support them.

I’m willing to ride that particular pony to the bottom, whatever the consequences in the real world may be.

Anocratic America: Dr. Fauci, Lightening Rod


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Whenever Dr. Fauci testifies in front of Congress, my heart sinks. It feels like the montage in the movie because the inciting when the Bad Thing happens that begins the story happens. It’s when American Senators who should know better babble about this or that anti-Fauci conspiracy simply to get a clip on FOX “News” that it really hits home how bleak America’s future is.

I don’t know what the “bad thing” is going to be — autocracy or civil war — but something’s gotta give. The United States can’t keep being such an unstable anocracy. We have to make up our collective minds one way or another. But whatever that decision is, it’s going to be a catastrophe.

I say this because the Republican Party is now fascist on a systemic level. Their entire point is to obtain power again and then never let it go. Trump’s Big Lie is now what the Republican Party is on an existential level. I just don’t see them peacefully ever giving up power again. As such, either we shrug a succumb to autocracy or we have a civil war and bomb ourselves into oblivion.

The thing that people who believe I’m peddling “hysterical doom shit” ignore is traditional American politics no longer exists. It’s become impossible to talk to someone about policy with someone you disagree with. It all descends into a screaming match.

It makes you wonder. I mean, Dr. Fauci is 80 years old. Who is going to replace him? Seems to me, either no one does until Republicans came name some MAGA toady, or we have to wait until Blue States win a civil war to get around to doing it. America is about as taunt as it can possibly be. All that has to happen for severe political violence up and including civil war to happen is there be just a little bit of added pressure on the system.

At the moment, it seems to me that The Bad Thing that is going to happen is we slip peacefully into autocracy. Nothing will change at first, but gradually because form follows function the United States will become politically identical to Russia with the twist of white minority rule. Wealthy, well-educated center-Left people will flee the country and the United States will grow inward looking, poor and unstable.

I mention this to my Traditionalists relatives and it doesn’t register that center-Left people leaving the country en mass would be bad for the country — they’re too wrapped up thinking that somehow I’m looking down on center-Right people. It’s kind of surreal. When your first reaction to millions of your fellow Americans voting with their feet is to think the person who suggests this as a possibility is being snooty…is unique.

It’s not a matter of center-Left people being more economically productive than center-Right people, it’s about the destruction of the United States because tyranny has descended upon the land. But, I guess, if you’re a center-Right Traditionalists, you don’t like the idea that YOU could be the bad guys.

I don’t know what to tell you. Things are dark and going to get darker.

MoscowMitch & The Republican Establishment Will Not Save Us


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to be eager to read Barbara F. Walters’ new book “How Civil Wars Start” when I get it from Amazon, hopefully this week. But in the interview she gave to The New Yorker Radio Hour, I was taken aback by her belief that somehow, someway Mitch McConnell would come to our rescue and prevent us from having a civil war.

Uh, no.

The MAGA New Right’s fascist infection has gone septic. We’re totally fucked. I say this because if McConnell did The Right Thing and simply started to say “No” to Trump and work towards some accountability for him, Trump could just gather up all his deporables and start his own party. So, no, MoscowMitch has every reason to embrace fascism up to and including pushing us into civil war or full blown autocracy.

I think what’s going on is, from the point of view of political theory, one could make the argument that — I guess? — MoscowMitch might side with democracy is the other option was civil war. But that is an extremely dubious assumption in my view.

What’s more likely to happen is there might be some vague talk on the part of MoscowMitch about doing something to prevent a civil war, but he probably won’t even believe it’s possible until the shooting starts. So, again, we’re fucked. This is it folks, the end of the Second American Republic is careening towards. It will happen at some point, probably, between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

The only question at this point is how the Second Republic will finally end. Will it be civil war? Will it be autocracy? Might it even be a military junta of some sort? But what isn’t going to happen is what Traditionalists assume — they get all the “cruelty is the point” policies they love, but they get to keep the goodies of democracy.

They don’t even think in those terms. It will not be until, literally, the excesses of autocracy (or civil war for that matter) are up close and personal that they might begin to regret making common cause with the MAGA New Right instead of libtards like me.

Of course, then they’ll tell me “for the sake of the family” to shut up. And then I get to tell them what I keep telling them will be my answer, “Fuck that and fuck you. You should have listened to me when it meant something.”

So, that’s it. You really, really, need to figure out what you believe in the real world. What you’re willing to risk your life for when the time comes. That’s all the advice I got for you at the moment.

The Vision Thing: An American United Popular Front


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that the MAGA New Right has it’s paramilitary group The Patriot Front, the center-Left needs it’s own organization. Not one bent on street violence, but a political organization that would promote the defense of liberty and democracy by facilitating a wide-range of political groups making common cause against the rise of fascism in the United State.

Now, this idea is sort of moot. What is the Democratic Party at the moment but a united popular front of various center-Left groups that run under the rubric of “Democratic Party?” I guess I want an formal organization that would put AOC in the same room as various NeverTrumpers where they would game out a collective, united reaction to the shitstorm we face in 2024 – 2025. Something with the specific goal of getting people like Liz Cheney talking to AOC face to face in public about their united desire to save the failing Second American Republic.

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

And, yet, again, I don’t know how much good it would do if you really think about it. By definition Cheney is now a RINO in the eyes of both the Republican base and the Establishment. Trump is the Republican Party and the Republican Party is Trump. We’re so far beyond the event horizon for tyranny that there’s little, in real terms, that a United Popular Front could do.

The ideal is still appealing to me because it would be nice to have some formal mechanism for holding the line when we’re faced with autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025. Such an organization would be an instant lightening rod for the MAGA New Right, of course. Anyone participating would get death threats, and go only knows what else.

So, lulz? This is one of my ideas that is good on paper but probably is meaningless in practice. And it’s not like anyone listens to me anyway. I just needed to get this off my chest because it seemed interesting, like it had potential to help things as we prepare for 2024 – 2025.

Norm Ornstein On Deep State Radio Is Right: The Republican Party Is A Violent Cult


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the political metrics in the United States are pointing towards a very dark future between now and January 2025. In fact, it’s not so much a question of if, but when, we face a very stark choice: autocracy or civil war.

So when I heard Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute lay out the same arguments that I have been ranting about on this blog for months now, it took me aback a little bit — I’m not the only one to thinks we better enjoy this quiet before the storm.

The only thing that continues to frustrate me is not enough Blue Check liberals on Twitter are taking these cold hard metrics and then asking what the implications of them are. I mean, what does it mean, as Ornstein says, that the Republican Party is now a “violent cult.” How do we prepare for that going forward.

Rather than just noting this ominous development in the public Twitter lyceum why don’t the nattering nabobs of negativism start to figure out what we are supposed to do about it.

This is when I wish I was smart enough to write for VOX, or New York Magazine or even The New Yorker. It would be nice if liberal-progressive thought leaders could come up with some sort of plan of action like they did before the 2020 election. The 2024 election has the potential to be far worse than the 2020 election because the likelihood of violence is significantly greater.

Tragically, just thinking off the top of my head, the only thing I can think of as to how to respond to the Republican “violent cult” is to be prepared to fight dirty just like they do. Or, put another way, we have to recalibrate our views of the Republican Party. They are no longer one of the two major parties in the United States, they are a violent cult hellbent on destroying our liberal democracy one way or another. We have to be prepared to call their bluff in a way we haven’t since 1861.

I hate even having to entertain such a drastic idea, but the only reason I am is, well, the Republican Party is a violent cult. We can’t pretend that they’re a normal political organization anymore. They’re equal to American Slave Power of the 19th Century.

God help us all.

What Is To Be Done?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to take the threat of autocratic rule by MAGA more seriously. Not only is the United States far less stable politically than one might think, there are an array of potential events that could added unexpected stress on an already fragile system.

Though I just don’t see Trump ever facing any accountability at all for any reason, even if we do manage to indict him for some reason, that will only lead to some sort of siege by MAGA people who refuse to let him get arraigned. Or something. America is a powder keg right now and we’re oblivious to how close we are to tipping into significant political violence.

Or not. I could be totally wrong about all of this. I’m often wrong, though I did get COVID19 right (to some extent.) I guess a lot of my hysterical, dystopian scenarios come from reading Twitter liberals being oblivious online and trying to do what they won’t do — take the rancid, seditious actions of the Republicans seriously then trying to figure out the implications.

So, it’s very possible to imagine that it’s Trump’s indictment that pushes us over the edge. Trump refuses to give himself up and before you know it, we all stare at our TV sets for days and days as we watch FBI agents try to coax Trump out of his house.

The issue is, the bolts are popping off of America’s politics in ways not seen since the late 1850s. As such, we face a similar situation in 2024 as we did in 1860 — do we let the modern Slave Power of MAGA run the country or do we break an egg to fix that particular problem? That sounds rather hysterical, but I’m growing — in an abstract way — to at least entertain the idea that we should at least fight for our democracy rather than let it go out with a whimper by acceding to modern Slave Power’s demands that we become an autocratic white Christian ethno state.

Fuck that.

But that is an absolute worst case option. I don’t want that. And, yet, a growing element of the Far Right has embraced political violence and autocracy enough that we have to take it seriously. If they’re itching to destroy America, maybe the so-called “Resistance” should pull its thumb out of its ass and prepare for that possible eventuality.

But, again, it’s possible that what will happen is when Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley become POTUS, there will be something of a stalemate. We’ll be an autocracy, but for the time being American self-perception will be too strong for anything too radical to happen. Though, all signs do point to some sort of Right Wing sponsored Constitutional Convention happening within the next decade. Which will fucking suck.

I’m at a loss as to what’s going to happen to America between now and January 2025. But we have to be prepared for some pretty dark possibilities.

Why I’m Not MAGA


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I could write a whole book on why I hate MAGA — and, in a sense I am via the novel I’m writing — but there’s one aspect of MAGA that sticks out above all the rest. That aspect is how MAGA craves transforming the United States into an autocratic white Christian ethno state like Russia.

My white hot rage against this desire on the part of MAGA is the one thing that allows me to tolerate all the dumb things that liberal-progressives have managed to think up to hurt themselves on a political level. I was not raised in a nation that was based on “blood and soil.” I was raised in a nation that was an idea that welcomed immigrants from all over the world and always strove to do better.

Everything else that I hate about MAGA stems from this desire on their part. Trump is simply a vessel for the racism, misogyny and bigotry that is associated with the “blood and soil” concept. The startling thing to me about all of this is I keep meeting otherwise intelligent, educated (and wealthy) people who have bought into the “blood and soil” concept totally.

It’s enough to fill me with a great deal of dread. It’s like a fucking Twilight Zone episode. Things have gotten so bad with a number of people close to me that I am beginning to take some of my more hysterical Trump-era fears far more seriously than I did while Trump was in office. As I keep saying, in the end, we’re going to have a very stark choice as a nation: autocracy or civil war.

The United States is far more politically unstable than the average person may believe. All we need is a little extra pressure put on the system and the whole thing may collapse in a rather abrupt, violent and cataclysmic manner. And, really, the United States is a slow moving train wreck at this point — the only question is what finally pushes us over the edge.

That’s probably my biggest pet peeve about Twitter liberals. They take such glee in pointing out the structural problems in the United States…but don’t take the time to make the obvious cognitive leap to what it all means. It’s like they see a historical train rushed towards us, but aren’t all that interested in helping us get off the tracks.

I just don’t see how the United States doesn’t either become an autocratic managed democracy like Russia or we buckle and start running around murdering each other for political reasons. I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But on a macro level, things don’t look so great.

The point of this is — I, for one, know which side I’m on. I’m on the side of the America I grew up in. Whatever fate that may bring me, I’m ready for.

America’s Stark Choice: Autocracy Or Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is far less stable on a political level than we realize. If I have to spend this much time thinking about all the different ways we could buckle sooner rather than later, we got a problem. I generally believe that if there’s going to be any kind of modern civil war, it’s going to be in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

And, yet, we have to deal with the bonkers Cyber Ninja recount in Arizona that has the potential to be extremely destabilizing. If they do manage to pull a Trump “victory” out of their butt — which they definitely seem hellbent on doing — then there’s a good chance that Trump will pop out of his hidey-hole and scream at the top of his lungs that this “proves” that he won the 2020 election and, as such, the Biden Administration should be “nullified” (whatever that means.)

What’s more, that’s not the only way we might find ourselves in a hot civil war — the unexpected death of any number of major political leaders, for any reason, would do the same thing at this point.

The point is — the United States is at a breaking point. We’re primed and ready for a collapse of historic proportions pretty much at any point between now and January 2025. It’s pretty easy to imagine that MAGA Republicans in Congress will simply refuse to certify the election of anyone they don’t like and that will be when we face a very, very stark choice: do we become a fascist state or do we find ourselves in a hot civil war?

I don’t particularly want either outcome, but as I keep saying, the issue is no one will have a choice. We’re all going to have to make some existential decisions. There will, at last, be no middle ground. We’re all going to have to pick a side, any side and risk our lives by doing so.

The Rise Of American Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be I had at least one conservative relative I had regular, friendly debates with. That has ended, ominously, however, because my conservative interlocutor finally was so detached from reality that I got mad and he said he didn’t want to talk politics with me anymore.

I try to be empathetic, so I find myself rolling around in my mind the topics we talked about in our last debate. The key take away I can think of off the top of my head is how much conservatives fucking hate science. It’s not that they don’t believe in it or that they deny it — they just hate it. This is the origin of their collective hatred of Dr. Fauci. In fact, Dr. Fauci was one of several instances where what my conservative relative started to say seemed like it was being beamed out of the Upside Down. It was surreal. It was bonkers. And it was dangerous.

Anyway, another re-occurring theme with conservatives is they “just want to be left alone.”

I assume what they mean is they think that just by being conservative, that just by having an opinion that doesn’t fit the “liberal media’s agenda” that they risk having their lives destroyed via “cancel culture.” I find it curious that conservatives get so worked up over the power of the liberal media when it’s also pretty obvious that for all the talk about the Republican Party dying it is actually growing more powerful as it marinates in its hate.

I struggle to figure out what the solution to how the United States is tearing itself apart. My fear is the only way there’s any solution is some sort of historic “reset” of our politics that involves an actual hot civil war. I could be a lot more empathetic to the concerns of American conservatives if they weren’t so hysterical that they were willing to throw their lot with fascism. Because that’s what we face right now — the rise of American fascism.

And, really, ironically, what has allowed us to doge the fate of the Weimer Republic for the time being is the Right is completely consumed with hero worship of a…ding-dong. Trump pretty much is an American Hitler…but for the part where he just talks a lot and never actually takes the next step of knocking heads. Trump is soooo fucking lazy and disorganized that while he has helped us lurch towards a Fourth Reich, he has also delayed its creation because of his, specific, personality quirks.

It’s not like Trump has the wherewithal to organize any sort of SA-type paramilitary group. So, a crucial aspect of the rise of American fascism doesn’t exist. We have a few would-be paramilitary groups but they’re small and disorganized at the moment. And, hopefully, will stay that way and never organize into one big jackbooted organization.

But let me be clear — the MAGA Republican Party isn’t dying. If we were still a liberal democracy, then, yes, you could make that argument. But we’re not that anymore –we’re an autocracy without an autocrat. What I mean by that is — all the conditions are there for an autocrat to turn us into a managed democracy like Russia…but for someone to actually do it.

And the one person who history would have do it — Donald J. Fucking Trump — is such a dingbat that for the time being we have a few years of peace. Either Trump will come back tan, ready and rested and take us into the dark night of fascism, or any one of seemingly endless stream of would-be MAGA autocrat presidents will do it instead.

And, as such, that’s why, as I keep saying, we face a stark choice between now and January 2025: autocracy or civil war.