The Problem With Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The problem with Trump — and there are many to choose from — is inevitably really smart people make some very complex determinations about him that just aren’t applicable.

Trump is a simple political figure — (older) (white) conservatives [men] feel disenfranchised.

That’s it. That’s all that’s going on.

And they will latch on to anyone and anything that will make them feel like they can “make America great again” by giving what they perceive is their lost status in the social, cultural and political pecking order.

This is an issue that isn’t going anywhere. It’s going to linger and linger until either we have a civil war because Blues leave the Union or we have a civil war because Reds leave the Union.

It is a fever that will never, ever break for macro reasons. We’re totally, completely fucked.

Now, having said that, I can’t predict the future. I’m sure *something* might happen that prevents a civil war. And it could be that Trump is elected, goes “full tyrant” and…nothing happens. About 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country, leaving Poors like me to my fate, and lulz, that’s it.

But, again — I can’t predict the future. This is just my mid-summer dread speaking at the moment.

I Can’t Predict The Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep ranting about how I think all these horrible things will happen in late 2024, early 2025, but let me be clear — I have no fucking clue what is going to happen.

I have a lot of unease, a lot of worry, but it could be that we either defeat Trump and it’s all a lulz, or Trump goes full tyrant and no one cares. But there is one thing we have to remember — we’re dealing with structural problems. MAGA isn’t going anywhere.

The fever isn’t ever going to break. The political rot of MAGA is severe, macro and could very well destroy us.

Of AI, The Fourth Turning & Hollywood’s ‘Survive Until 25’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

According to the Hollywood-related podcasts that I listen to, “Survive Until 25” is the current mantra in LA. Apparently, showbiz is kind of imploding at the moment. I really don’t know why — I’m just some rando in the middle of nowhere — but it is interesting.

One reason why it’s interesting is it’s happening right as two things — one political, the other technological — are about to crash onto Hollywood in something of a perfect storm.

It could be that by 2025, things like OpenAI’s “Sora” will really begin to take off in the context, of, well the whole world collapsing because of severe political turbulence in the USA and, by extension, the whole world.

(Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I continue to have a lingering fear about such things.)

Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Hollywood is going to undergo a pretty radical transformation in the next few years and 2025 could not be a year of rebirth, but rather one of radical upheaval and transformation.

We Are Heading Towards A Dark Autumn

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you. I don’t know how we collectively make it out alive this autumn. But, maybe, just maybe, all my dystopian hellscape ranting is just a bunch of bullshit overthinking.

I am prone to do that, you know.

There are all these different things that might happen. From a certification crisis, to Trump going full tyrant. You name it.

Whatever This Means, It Sucks

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m sure the fact that all the MAGA “thought leaders” have changed their profile pictures to some variation of this:


Means something that sucks or is racist or misogynistic or both. But the 2024 political silly season is in full force so, lulz. Get ready, folks, it’s only going to get much, much, MUCH worse.

The Autumn of Our Discontent

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for me at the moment is, if Trump loses, will he demand a National Divorce and will people listen to him if he does. I think, on a state basis, Texas really would agree to leaving the Union.

That will cause the country to buckle.

Now, obvious, Trump could win and then, lulz, we have to deal with him going full tyrant. But, I dunno. If he loses, we’re so close to the country buckling already that it seems like if Trump starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce that it might really happen.

Then I have to figure out what the fuck I’m going to do. I still think my best is to head North, once some sort of infrastructure for domestic political refugees has been built out.

How Seriously Should We Take The Bloodthirsty MAGA Rhetoric?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the signs continue to point to Something Big happening in late 2024, early 2025. Either we have a civil war or Trump goes full tyrant, pushes Blue States out of the Union, gets deposed….and we have a civil war. Or something along those lines.


But I can’t predict the future. It could be that, lulz, there (thankfully) won’t be any violence and we’ll just drift into some New Era, one way or another. But the key thing for me is — if Trump loses, will he be able to convince Reds to leave the Union on a state basis.

Or will he even try?

Don’t know.

Contemplating Becoming a Domestic Political Refugee In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I don’t seriously think I’ll become a domestic political refugee, there is a non-zero chance that it might happen starting at some point in late 2024, early 2025 if the country buckles. And it could happen no matter who wins.

If Trump wins, it might happen because he goes full tyrant.

If he loses, it might happen because he rants about the need for a National Divorce.

So, I don’t know. It really could happen either way. I’m going to try to hold out as long as I can. But I suppose if things get too tense, I can at least make it as far as Richmond before I have to fish or cut bait. I do think Virginia will be the first state to collapse if the country buckles.

That will suck.

October Surprises: Of Sextapes & Deepfakes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A long time ago, I saw a blind item about the possible existence of a Kamala Harris sextape that she did with Montel Williams while they were dating. It was a long time ago and it was a blind item, so, lulz, I’m sure it either doesn’t exist now or never existed in the first place.

But such ideas have got me thinking that a faux Harris sextape dropped late in October sure would be a nasty “October Surprise” to worry about. I only even bring any such thing up because of all the racist and misogynistic sewage that is being spewed her way already.

I hope I’m overthinking things and being paranoid — as usual.

We Have GOT To Fish Or Cut Bait When It Comes To Biden As A Candidate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The above is apparently the ‘bright idea” that the Democrats have to figure out who the nominee will be should Biden drop out. It’s totally insane and bonkers. But it proves a point — Democrats needs to fish or cut bait with Biden.

I’m not a Democrat — I’m an anti-MAGA independent — so I feel a bit more detached than most people observing all this. But definitely FEELS like we’re in something of a political death spiral when it comes to Biden’s future. It definitely FEELS like Biden is going to drop out — probably within the next few days.

But, who knows. He could endup saying, “The Aristocrats!” at the end of all of this and we just have figure out what we’re going to do with him as the standard barer going forward.