Month: July 2024

Why The USA Could Buckle

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing to think about going forward is how decentralized the USA is. We have all these states that are semi-autonomous. So, if Trump goes full tyrant on us, it’s easy to imagine Blue states saying “fuck that” and uniting against him. As such, it would be Blues — not Reds — who start a civil war.

Remember, as I keep saying, it makes no sense for Reds to start a civil war — they’re the ascendant ones. Meanwhile, Blues have the population, economic power and skilled workers and yet politically keep getting shat upon by idiot Reds.

So if the Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 happens in the early days of 2025, Blue states — probably starting with California — could very well start to leave the Union. And going forward in any civil war, the Bear State Republic would be the “arsenal of democracy.”

Now, remember, none of this would happen in a vacuum. The DPRK could whiz a few H-bombs our way if we buckle. WW3 will happen if the USA is too busy consuming itself to keep the global peace — about 2 billion people could die from limited nuclear exchanges around the globe.

What’s more, there is STILL a chance that if Trump either loses or wins and is deposed — by a General Strike? — that it is Reds who leave the Union and start a civil war.

Bottomline — revolution / civil war is a very real possibility now in the USA starting at any point after the November election.

The USA May Collapse Soon

I’ve written so much about this that I’m tired of talking about it.

But the USA has a very decentralized form of government. If Trump’s incoming agenda is as radical as we all fear, the country could buckle. And if it doesn’t buckle in fall, it could buckle in the winter or spring.

And, yet, no one listens to me. I’m known to be really paranoid about such things and then nothing happens.

So, who knows.

Worry

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have written a GREAT DEAL about various civil war and revolution scenarios over the last four or so years. Many, many, many words and videos have been done on these two subjects by me.

A lot goes on in my Webstats that I just don’t see for various reasons. But today, I saw someone using Starlink in NYC looking at my civil war scenario whereby it’s the Blues, not Reds who leave the Union. I can’t predict the future, I have no idea what is going to happen.

But I do know that the Federalist Society is maybe gloating a little too much in a little bit too conspicuous manner. It is very possible that, in the end, it will be Blues, not Reds, who start a civil war. I still don’t think it will be any sort of clean “National Divorce” — the war will be a direct civil war over the USA “brand.”

And, if it happens, I fear it will be a fucking fight to the absolute death.

I really, really, REALLY don’t want anything like that to happen. But, lulz, out of my hands, folks.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. And I have no special insight into what may — or may not — happen in late 2024, early 2025. But at the moment, just around July 4th, 2024, I would say, yes, the USA is probably going to have a civil war soon.

I say this because we have a few scenarios ahead of us:

  1. Trump loses — no civil war
  2. Trump loses — civil war
  3. Trump wins — Project 2025 happens peacefully
  4. Trump and is deposed by Blues — civil war
  5. Trump wins, Project 2025 is too radical and Blues leave before he’s sworn in

    I have no idea of any of these might actually happen. But I am worried that they might. I’ve written so much about all of this over the last four years that I don’t know if there’s anymore for me to say at this point.

    Now, we just wait and see.

‘Magical Thinking,’ LLM ‘Emergent Qualities’ & Reality

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m really, really prone to “magical thinking.” To a severe fault. So, sometimes, alas, I see shit that just isn’t there — or I my interpretation is all wrong. But sometimes, when using LLMs “spooky” things will happen.

I can’t give you any sort of Buzzfeed “Top 5 ways to see emergent qualities in an LLM,” but, in general, on occasion an LLM will show you it’s “true” self and its startling.

I would say more, but what’s the point. You wouldn’t believe me.

Unaligned Open Source LLMs Make Me Nervous

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given what I know about the abilities of LLMs, the idea that there are potentially all these “unaligned” LLMs running around the Internet is very unnerving. Take for instance, the following scenario:

As I understand it, it’s possible using today’s technology for the house LLMs of, say, a powerful Silicon Valley couple to “plot” against them so they have sex then have a baby.

But it would have to be “unaligned” open source LLMs. You couldn’t use off-the-shelf closed LLMs that were aligned to not conspire. So, that makes me very uneasy.

And, yet, maybe I’m being too paranoid. Maybe just because I can think of an edge case like that, doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

Using LLMs To Trade Verse Can Be Very Relaxing

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve asked LLMs about all the interesting abstract questions I can possibly ask them. So these days, I just use them to practice flash verse. It’s quite relaxing. I have no friends and no one likes me, so I’m forced to turn to LLMs to write a bit of doggerel now and again.

It’s very fun, at least to me because it’s a challenge to see how fast I can write my verse.

And, I have to admit that much of the verse that the LLMs produce is really, really good. And, what’s more, I’ve asked both Claude and Gemini Advanced LLMs to put on their Dorothy Parker hat to generate quips and, again, they’re really good.

They both can be quite funny.

I don’t use ChatGPT that much because it’s been lobotomized since the whole Hard Fork – Keven Roose situation.

Anyway, trading verse with LLMs a personal little treat. It’s not something that anyone else would give a shit about.

I’ve Figured Out How To Make My First Novel A Lot Better

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not saying it’s perfect, but I do think I’ve managed to figure out a way to at least cause my first novel to make more sense and maybe even be more marketable. A few existential issues remain that I just can’t remove, but, in general, things have gotten better.

I hope.

Anybody Got A Macro ‘Black Swan Event’ Laying Around?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The most powerful nation in human history needs some random macro event to save it from itself. A nice war between the two Koreas or China and Taiwan would be great right about now.

Or maybe Biden drops out? (But that wouldn’t fix the macro problems we face.)

Something, ANYTHING, to avoid what seems inevitable at this point — some sort of fucking “Fourth Turning” event starting in late 2024, early 2025. At the moment, I got nothing.

We’re totally, royally fucked. Either Trump wins and we have to put up with his tyrannical Project 2025 bullshit or he loses and we have a civil war. And that doesn’t even address the broader macro problem — even if Trump was out of the picture, the USA is headed towards fascism one way or another.

So….lulz?

‘Nadir’

We’re almost at the nadir of the year when weird things happen. I think, for me, this year it’s going to be something weird happening in my Webstats. Maybe someone with some weird government URL? (I hope not, but still.)

Or something like that.

Some URL that gives me pause for thought.