Month: February 2024

Psychohistory: A Study Of Macro History Would Have Predicted Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to compare Trump to The Mule character in The Foundation books. But I don’t think that anymore. I think if you had done a back-of-the-envelope projection of America’s future in the late 1980s, you would come to the realization that someone like Trump was going to pop out of the political woodwork.

The reason is — angry white conservative Christians feel aggrieved and put upon to the point that they see someone like Trump as an avatar for all their fears about changing America. And it all really boils down to a lack of those sweet, sweet white babies that such people want so bad — even though they don’t give a shit what happens to them once they’re born.

And, what’s more, Trump isn’t a Great Man of history. He’s not Hitler. He’s just too lazy and dumb to be such a person. He doesn’t bend history to his will, he just rides it to its logical conclusion. As such, he may very well force the issue one way or another in late 2024, early 2025.

It could be that if he becomes POTUS again, he will thrash around in such a ham-handed, tyrannical way that he will force Americans to make a decision — are we prepared to live in an autocratic state or not? If Trump was out of the picture, I think the US would simply gradually become a MAGA-themed autocracy because a Republican President — ANY Republican President other than Trump — would be able to transition us into such a state without people taking off their Apple Vision Pros.

But ding-dong Trump is so dumb and lazy that he might force Traditionalists to make a decision if, say, their vocal center-Left relative is snatched off the street for refusing to shut up about what a cocksucker Tyrant Trump is.

Anyway. What do I know. I can’t predict the future. But I am worried.

Things Are Going Well With The Newest Attempt At A Third Draft Of The Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I think the only way I’m actually going to get past the first few chapters is just…not look at the first few chapters of the third draft once I finish them. Just wing it when it comes to consistency.

My dream is to write a novel as accessible and popular as The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Things are set up now that I should be able to methodically go through at least the first half of the novel without feeling forced to re-read everything from the beginning. I had a real problem the last time I thought I had transitioned from the first to second acts of the third draft to the point that I went back to the very beginning and made some structural changes.

I’m pretty pleased, in general, with what I’ve come up with. I continue to worry about things I just can’t control. The rise of AI and the possibility of The Fourth Turning happening at some point over the next 18 months weigh heavily on my mind. But, as I’ve written, finishing this novel is existential.

I’m going to try to finish the third draft of this novel not later than April, but it might be closer to July. THEN I have to worry about finding the funds to get someone to look over the novel before I query an agent. And even then, I have to worry about an agenda doing due dilligence on me and thinking I’m not only a crackpot, but a smelly CIS white male who writes from a female POV sometimes.

I do still have a few scifi concepts I want to work on. It’s just so difficult for me to stop fixating on the mystery-thriller long enough to do such a thing. But I really do need to do it ASAP. I don’t like having all my eggs in one basket.

Comparing To Trump to Navalny Is Fucking Insane

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The late Alexei Navalny.

Alexei Navalny’s tragic death has caused the usual MAGA suspects to compare his murder to what’s going on with Trump these days. Or, even more stupidly, MAGA will do “whataboutism” of pointing out the uncertain nature of Jeffery Epstein’s death in prison.

Ugh.

And Tucker Carlson pretty much gave Putin a pass for what happened to Navalny. Double ugh. The whole thing is fucked up. But it does give us a pretty solid indication of how bad things will get if Trump is re-elected.

I continue to predict that about 1 million wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country starting in late 2024, early 2025 should Trump get re-elected. That will be just the beginning as Trump begins to put the squeeze on anyone he sees as either a potential political opponent or critic.

What’s so bonkers about all of this is, of course, the fact that if Trump is really ham-handed in the implementation of MAGA tyranny….oh boy. All bets are off as to how that particular situation is finally fixed. If Trump is a total bonkers tyrant starting in 2025….it’s at least POSSIBLE that Blues might rise up against him in some sort of General Strike that might lead to a Glorious Revolution.

But I have my doubts — and I’m not advocating anything. I hate violence of any sort.

Yet I am worried. Very worried.

The Last Stand: In The End, Our Only Hope May Be Principled Traditionalists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fear that should Trump get a second term that, in the end, the entire fate of the United States will hinge on the principled nature of Traditionalists. All Traditionalists want is to separate brown families at the border, make undocumented people enteral second class citizens and to return shame to person decisions like abortion or being gay.

So should Trump, in a very ham-handed way, start to do shit that is even more tyrannical than THAT, like, say snatch someone like me off the street for calling Trump a cocksucker, well, I dunno. Things MIGHT get interesting. If Trump’s weaponized ICE — or whatever agency is weaponized — starts to act really tyrannical in such a manner, there is a chance that Traditionalists might radicalize — turn into Radical Moderates — JUST LONG ENOUGH to depose Trump in some sort of Blue “Glorious Revolution.”

In other words, 2025 could see the greatest political upheaval in the United States since the Civil War if Trump in a very ham-handed way goes full tyrant in a way that Traditional conservatives just can’t condone.

I fear I’m being delusional. We’re fucked.

A Brief Remaining Window Of Opportunity: Developing, Writing & Finishing This Novel Is Existential To Me

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. I have a window of opportunity before either The Fourth Turning destroys the country and / or AI makes all human generated entertainment moot. So, I have to hurry. At this point, finishing this novel is now existential and, to some extent, irrational.

I should just give up and stare at my ceiling all day until I die of boredom. I suppose that’s what a “normal” person would do — just give up.

But fuck that. I’m not normal. Never have been. So, once more into the breach. Now that I’m sober, I feel in a better position to sprint. All I want to do is to express my humanity by telling a great story that one — one! — person who isn’t related to me or who doesn’t know me personally finishes and really likes and wants to read more.

That, in my mind, will prove that I don’t suck as a writer.

Hollywood Just Hit The Iceberg: OpenAI’s Sora Is A ‘Burn, Hollywood, Burn’ Advance In AI Movie Technology

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It may take a little while — 18 months? — but there is going to come a moment in the not-so-distant future when we have a Her movie future where our digital personal assistant will, on the fly, churn on VR narrative immersive media for our Apple Vision Pros.

The beautiful Zendaya.

I don’t see how “human” Hollywood has much of a long term future unless Congress passes some sort of carveout whereby a certain amount of entertainment HAS to be created by the hand of man, rather than an AI. And if we’ve gotten to that point, I could see maybe neo-Luddism being the natural evolution of MAGA.

I mean, if 3 million high paying blue collar transportation jobs go poof overnight, that is going to have a severe economic impact. At this point, my only question is if “The Fourth Turning” is going to somehow pause development of all this cool shit while we bomb ourselves into oblivion because of “vibes.”

I continue to feel very uneasy about America’s political future. Shit is going to get really complicated really soon and it could be that all this cool stuff we keep expecting to happen in the next few years simply will be punted down the road until we decide if we’re going to be an autocracy or not.

Good luck.

MAGA Is American National Socialism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of how socialist the Nazis were is a tricky one whenever it comes up. The Nazis being socialists is something that far Right American groups throw around whenever they want to shit on the center-Left.

What people miss about the Nazis and socialism is the Nazis were NATIONAL socialists. They were far Right nationalistic group that wanted to take over the world. But they *were* socialist, just not in the way that could be used to attack center-Left people in the US.

It’s hard for an American in the 21st Century to understand the complexities of why Hitler added “National Socialist” to the National Socialist German Worker’s Party’s name. But he did. And he really fucking hated both traditional socialists and Communists.

But the issue for me is — MAGA is American National Socialism. It’s even more complex than that, though. MAGA really doesn’t have any ideology other than whatever the fuck Trump “truths” that particular day. And that’s something interesting about the future of American National Socialism — what happens when fat fuck Trump shuffles off this mortal coil?

Who will take up his bonkers mantel and will the base of the Republican Party have the same about of absolute fidelity to him or her? A lot depends on how far we’ve transitioned into a MAGA-themed autocracy when ding-dong goes up to that big fast-food joint in the sky.

I do think we need to keep any eye on MTG. That woman is far more sly that any of us might otherwise believe. And I have long thought that we might one day live under a “Velvet Glove” autocracy with our tyrant being a MAGA woman, not man.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

Now That I’m Not Such A Drunk, Maybe I’ll Get A Lot More Writing Done

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have stopped drinking. I’ve just reached the point where I would prefer not to die of an early death as the result of some alcohol-related illness. The biggest change all of this causes is I’m not in an alcohol-induced haze most of the time. As such, I hope I’m going to be able to focus and get much, much more work done on the novel.

No more barfly.

Hell, maybe I’ll even force myself to read and watch more content produced by someone other than myself. I hope. I really do. That’s the goal. I may have finally locked the first chapter of the third draft of the novel. I can use that as the cornerstone of the rest of the novel and, as such, things should move a lot more quickly.

That’s the dream, at least.

I’m hoping this new era in my life will stick. I really want to get this novel done as quickly as possible so I can at least get the next stage which is figuring out what to do with it, once I finally know how long it is.

I really hope it’s not 160,000 words. I really, really hope it’s no more than 140,000 words. That’s about how long The Girl On The Train was and that was a success, so, lulz. But I still need work on a back up plan. I need some sort of back up creative plan in case something happens that screws everything up with this first novel.

Biden Being So Frail Is Historical Bad Ju-Ju

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m very uneasy about what is going on with President Biden. He’s demonstrably old and frail — if mentally still smart as a tack. My fear is that things will get so bad with Biden that we’re going to have to invoke the 25th Amendment in some way.

I continue to believe that late 2024, early 2025 could be one of the momentous few months in American history. The fact that Biden is so frail and old just as a number of major historical trends are all coming to a head all at the same time. And remember, Trump is chomping at the bit to exploit any possible weakness that might occur in late 2024, early 2025.

Look up the election of 1872.

If we manage to escape this catastrophe, I will be very pleased. I’m just worried. Really worried. But maybe the strange thing to happen will be not that something shocking happens, but rather….we muddle through.

I dunno. It will be curious going forward.

We Need A Cultural Reset

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know if this is the cultural equivalent of The Fourth Turning or not, but it seems like we need some sort of cultural reset. It we need to lurch into a new, more exciting future. We exist in some sort of luminal state whereby a bunch of old people control culture.

I honestly don’t know how to fix this problem.

But I suppose if there was some sort of Fourth Turning then once it was over and we came out the other side, we would have a new, vibrant culture again. But it definitely seems as though we’re stuck in a cultural malaise for the foreseeable future.

I also think that people aren’t thinking through how bad things suck at the moment in general. I suppose there is a possibility that technology will fix the problem. Some combination of AI and the Apple Vision Pro going mainstream might be the thing that prompts some sort of cultural reset or vibe shift.

I hope, is all I gotta say.