Month: January 2024

We’re Failing A Historic Test

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Above is a map that is something of a proxy for what a Second American Civil War would look like. But such a map leaves a lot of questions unanswered. Among them being — if Deep South states decide to leave the Union because of the inclinations of their MAGA Republican Parties — what happens when African Americans object?

That is a “Not great, Bob,” type situation.

One way to re-elect Biden would have him have to go through a Secession Crisis. But I don’t *think* it will come to that, at least not until after Election Day — or way or another.


I think this is one of those situations where violence might happen — something akin to Insurrection 2.0 — because of a combination of momentum and musculations on both sides.

If there was some sort of stand off that came to blows between the two sides and Biden felt a lot of pressure to Federalize the Texas National Guard, then, well, we could very well be going to the show. Things could escalate at an alarming rate and, before you know it, there would be a mad rush between Texas and South Carolina to see who could call up a Secessionist convention first.

The Shoe That Hasn’t Dropped

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As far as I can tell, the late night talk show hosts haven’t commented on what’s going on between the Feds and Texas. That’s a good-to-great thing because when they do, that is going politically escalate things.

At the moment, all the talk of a “civil war” is just that — talk.

But once there is serious political pressure on Biden to do something to thump the nose of Texas….then things could escalate pretty quickly into a very dark future. I, for one, would prefer not to have a civil war anytime soon.

And I don’t think I have anything to worry about.

But keep a look out for Colbert or Meyers to address the situation between Texas and the Feds. Maybe they will never get around to it, which would be good.

What The Fuck Is Wrong With The Anglophone World?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It feels like the entire Anglophone world is in the shitter these days. Of the major English speaking nations, three out of the five are in some sort of long-term political crisis.

I suppose you could blather on about the “Fourth Turning” happening, but that’s just astrology for dudes who like World War 2.

It’s all something of a mystery. It’s entirely possible to imagine the US having a Civil War, Great Britain collapsing and Canada pretty much becoming a failed state all within a few months of each other.

But, for the moment, it seems as though it’s the USA we have to worry about. If things got really bad here, then both Canada and Great Britain would not be far behind.

And that doesn’t even begin to address how if the USA goes tits up about 1 billion people would die because something akin to WW3 would break out. The nukes would be whizzing around like crazy.

It’s All Fun & Games Until Someone Starts A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been talking and writing about various civil war / revolution scenarios for years and years now. David French wrote a great book on the subject recently, too. It lays out some pretty good scenarios as to how a civil war in the US might actually break out.

But the thing you have to remember is — at the moment, at least, all that is going on is a lot of political grandstanding. That’s it. No one is doing anything ‘in defiance” of anyone or anything.

Texas thinks it can put up barbwire on the Mexico border, the US disagrees and that’s it.

And, yet, as a lot of long-term macro trends come to a head in late 2024, early 2025, something like this which should be a lulz has the potential to escalate rather quickly at an alarming rate.

But, at the moment, things are just at a low simmer. And there’s every reason to believe that that will continue to be the case until at least the 2024 presidential silly season officially begins.

If nothing else, I will note, one way to re-elect Biden is for him to have to lead the US through a secession crisis.

Texas Gov. Abbott Sure Does Like Sucking His Own Political Cock

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s a testament to how divided America is at the moment that every mouth breathing MAGA fucktard wants Texas Gov. Abbott to “hold the line,” when, really there isn’t much of a line to hold.

He thinks he can put up barbwire on the Texas border, the Feds think they have the right to cut it down. That’s all that’s going on. He’s not “violating” anything or “standing his ground” on anything.

So all this “civil war” talk that he’s juicing is just political grandstanding.

But I will admit that the fact that a sizable portion of the population really, really wants an excuse to hurt other people for political reasons is a “not great, Bob” type situation.

For the moment, it seems things are just going to simmer until we either have a civil war because Trump loses in 2024, or we have a civil war because he wins in 2024 the gets deposed by Blues after he goes “full tyrant” on us.

In other words — for the time being, at least, Reds are talk.

The Texas Border Kerfuffle: There’s A Difference Between The Legal & The Political

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, I got that wrong. I got myself all worked up about what is going on in Texas, only to today realize that Texas Gov. Abbott isn’t “defying” anything. He’s sucking his own political cock, yes, but he’s just continuing to do what he was doing before — putting up barbwire on the Texas border with Mexico.

The legal injunction was against the Feds, who were — and still are — cutting down the barbwire that Gov. Abbott has been putting up.

But there’s a big difference between the legal and political in this case. The US is so divided in a hyper partisan way that MAGA chodes are chomping at the bit to find some reason to act like they can “hold the line” against the Federal governent.

This is all a very, very dangerous situation because of that confusion between the political and the legal.

While I still think Biden should nationalize the Texas National Guard just to prove a point, there is a risk that doing something so drastic would only make a very dumb situation far, far worse on a * political* basis.

Thing Continue To Be In Flux With The Third Draft Of This Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Yet again, I find myself stuck at the very beginning of this novel, spinning my wheels. I have to admit, however, that the story is getting much, much better. I continue to dabble in the use of AI to develop this novel, to mixed results.

The dream is real.
Too much of this novel is “spicy” in a way that causes all the AIs out there to lock up, so I’m forced to use it sparingly. Some of the results I get from using AI are pretty good. Sometimes, meh. Not great.

And something is going to happen in my personal life the next few days that may force me to kind of chill out until next week. It’s very frustrating, but given how great my life is otherwise for writing, I can complain only so much.

Some other good news is I *may* have an “accountability buddy” at the nursing home that my dad is at. This older guy is really interested in reading the novel and, as such, I might be able to use him as something of a backstop to prevent myself from changing everything at the drop of a hat when I grow frustrated.

But….I don’t know.

I’m so desperate to finish this novel before I croak that I might be able to press forward of my own accord.

What Are We To Make Of Fucking Texas Defying SCOTUS?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on with Texas defying SCOTUS is it really could go either way at the moment. This could be just low level political crisis that kind of lingers, but ultimately goes nowhere — or it could be the precursor to something akin to a Second American Civil War.

I honestly just don’t know. Things could escalate any number of different ways. If Biden feels too much political pressure and feels forced to Federalize the Texas National Guard, then every good olde boy goober with an AR-15 might swarm the area in quest and we end up with Insurrection Part Duh.

Or something, something bad like that.

At the moment, I just can’t game out which direction things will go. On a basic rhetorical basis, at least, the United States is primed and ready for a secession crisis that might be sparked by something EXTREMELY DUMB like this. And, yet, I think we need the passions of the 2024 presidential silly season to be in full force for something as dire as that to happen.

My gut tells me this is a lulz — at least in the near term. Texas ding-dongs get to beat their chest about how they’re “holding the line” while Biden carefully eyes the situation as we enter the full brunt of 2024 electioneering.

Is Trump Having An Affair With His Lawyer Alina Habba? Lulz. So What.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No matter how delicious it would be for me on a personal basis if ding-dong Trump was having an affair with Alina Habba, on a political basis, it would be a total lulz.

In fact, I suspect the only way such a quaint sex scandal would matter is if Melania divorced Trump. Otherwise, lulz. The structural rot that has allowed for Trump’s continued popularity is just to potent. There’s just too much momentum behind our lurch into fascism.

As an aside, I will note, of course, that “To habba” would be a funny verb to mean “the act of being a bad lawyer.”

But the issue remains — it definitely seems as the moment that Trump’s popularity — at least with the MAGA base — is immutable. The only question (sometimes) in my mind is if we have a civil war in late 2024 because Trump loses or if I become a domestic political refugee in 2025 because Trump wins and the country collapses as he becomes the Mad Red King.

I’m At A Loss As To How To Wrap Up The Problem With The Texas National Guard

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The simple solution to the growing political and legal crisis in regards to the Texas National Guard ignoring the will of the Federal government at the border is the simply nationalize it.

And, yet, there are some pretty big political considerations to take into account. It’s at least possible that if Biden did the obvious, that that will only pour gasoline on the situation and make a bunch of goons with AR-15s to come out of the woodwork and we have Insurrection 2.0 on our hands.

But maybe I’m overthinking things. I think either Biden just ignores what’s going on or he nationalizes the Texas National Guard. Or, it’s possible that this is just something we punt down the road until after the coming 2024 President Silly Season is sorted out one way or another.

It’s all very curious. But, just from my discussions on Twitter about this situation, it definitely seems as though it’s yet ANOTHER issue that is seen through the lens of our hyper partisan world and nothing gets done because each side so so busy scoring points to actually try to fix the problem at hand.