Month: January 2024

It’s Not Even A Good Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Maybe it’s not so bad that Russian spies and trolls might be reading this blog to get tips — at least they might come up with a post-civil war America scenario better than this one.


This is not at all what would happen to the U.S. If there was some sort of collapse, it would totally be a Red V. Blue situation, not a collapse into regions. And it would be far, far more messy than the map above might have you believe. There would be millions — MILLIONS — of domestic political refugees as people bounced around, look for someone to live that better fit their personal political views.

Anyway. I would suggest the Russians slow their roll with their drooling at the possibility that the US will collapse. It could be that we just turn into an autocracy.

Welp, WW3 Would Be The Type Of ‘Black Swan’ Event That Would Re-Elect Joe Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why Trump lost in 2020 was something none of us could have predicted in the years leading up to the event — a pandemic. The pandemic — combined with how dumb and lazy Trump is — was enough to jiggle the political dynamic to produce a Trump loss.

As such, we may find ourselves with another such “black swan” event — something akin to WW3.

We already have one major regional war in Europe and a minor one in the Middle East — if the US struck Tehran because of today’s death of three solders by a Iranian proxy group, then, well, all bets are off. Because if, say, Iran used one of the three a-bombs it apparently has access to on, say, Israel, then, yikes, that would so destabilize the globe that soon enough the DPRK and China would probably start lashing out as well.

There would be a rally round the flag affect and, there you go, Biden is re-elected. Of course, if, say, the simmering conflict between Pakistan – India — China also got hot….things might grow rather awkward.

It could be that rather than the US having a civil war / revolution or turning into an America First autocracy, the whole globe just collapses into chaos and…saves American democracy.

It would be surreal.

America’s Foes Are Gunning For Us On Social Media

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On both Twitter and Tik-Tok I’ve seen a lot of what is clearly ‘fight fight fight” rhetoric generated by accounts that are clearly not American. It is beginning to dawn on America’s strategic foes that we could very well implode because of….vibes.

They are hoping to stir up trouble on social media to the point that, say the simmering power struggle between Texas and the Feds could turn into a full blown insurrection or even civil war.

I don’t see how we can stop this particular situation. It’s one of those things where outside forces stirring up trouble are just part of what we have to deal with going forward.

Everything is so fucked up

This Is Nuts

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am still not prepared to believe anything of note is going to happen because of the low-key power struggle between the Feds and Texas, but the news that the Border Patrol Union claims it won’t cut the barbwire at the center of that struggle doesn’t help anything.

And I still am not 100% sure that this means what I think it means.

And, what’s more, I still think Biden is going to let Texas have its fun until he knows one way or another what is going to happen with the immigration deal making its way to the House. If it is, in fact, DOA as Speaker Johnson proposes, then, yeah, things might escalate pretty quick.

But….I’m not prepared to believe that.

I think all of this is a bunch of bluster and it will come to nothing, at least until after Election Day 2024.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

I Don’t Know What To Think About Russian Trolls Reading My Blog To Fuck With America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep getting pings from deep inside of Russia from people reading my dystopian hellscape scenarios about America’s future. It’s clear that it’s not SPIES reading this blog, it’s Russian TROLLS.

Some of the bullshit on social media these days in regards to the stand off between Federal and Texas forces is jaw dropping. It’s just pure and total bullshit. And, yet, here we are, with MAGA rubes lapping it up.

The idea that I might be helping Russian trolls fuck with the minds of my fellow Americans fills me with a great deal of angst. But, alas, there’s not much I can do about it now, I suppose.

Once something is on the Internet, it’s there forever.

It’s so rare for anyone to give a shit about what I have to say about ANYTHING, that I totally didn’t think that all my verbiage about the prospect of a Second American Civil War might catch the attention of America’s enemies.

My bad, as they say.

Still Dreading Querying My Novel & ‘Comping’ It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m something of a long-term, strategic thinker so even though I’ve not finished my first novel, I find myself dwelling how hard it will be to query it. My biggest concern is of course, that any literary agent who does “due diligence” on me is going to be aghast at how often I’ve gotten drunk and ranted about things that don’t quite jib with the mainstream media narrative.

My dream is to write a novel a popular as Stieg Larsson’s “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.”

Another big concern of mine is how I’m going to “comp” this novel, given that I don’t actually read that much fiction! I just keep re-reading Stieg Larsson’s The Girl Who Played With Fire and when you comp a novel in your query letter, you’re SUPPOSED to comp — or compare — it to something a little bit more modern.

Ugh.

As such, I’ve forced myself to buy some novels that AI have told me are similar to Larsson’s work. I suppose I could read some of the more modern faux Larsson novels, but they’re so fucking bad. Though there is the most recent new one that has, in its own way, some of the same elements of my novel, so I might buy THAT one and use it as a comp to my novel.

I hope I’m not too bonkers to be a successful novelist.

Maybe.

Anyway, I’m feeling pretty good about where things stand. Now, I just hope the country I love so much doesn’t collapse into chaos because of “vibes.”

Things Are Getting Really Good With The Third Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This afternoon, I plan to plunge back into editing and rewriting (as necessary) the first three chapters of the third draft of my first novel. I also hope to do some reading and watching of some TV / movies. I’m really, really pleased with what I’ve managed to come up with for this third draft.

I dream to have a level of success equal to “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.”

The issue is, of course, that I need hurry the fuck up. I can’t just keep screwing around. Any number of things could happen in the next few days and weeks that totally throw everything up in the air or, at a minimum, dramatically change the context of this project.

But, for the time being, all systems are go.

I’ve given myself a few days of pause to recalibrate things and now I’m ready to go again. I hope to wrap up the first act of this novel ASAP and get into the second act.

There remains the issue of word count. At the moment, I have a first act that is equal to the first half of the second act — which, itself, is really long. So, it’s possible that, at least on a scene basis, that I’m going to have a really long first half and the second half will be a lot shorter — which, I hope, means it will read faster.

I continue to do all of this blind — I have no idea if I’m going it right or not. I may have a “reader” of sorts now — an older man who is at my dad’s nursing home — but I don’t know yet. Just having someone to read the novel as a second pair of eyes will be great.

But I have been disappointed so often that, lulz, I just don’t know.

Why Biden May Be Slow Walking His Response To The Texas Standoff

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. He doesn’t want escalate things.
    It could be that Biden isn’t Federalizing the Texas National Guard — and any other National Guard that gets in his way — because he just doesn’t want to escalate things at the moment.
  2. He doesn’t want to blow up the immigration reform package
    It’s also possible that for similar reasons, he is afraid that if he Federalizes the Texas National Guard that that, by definition, will blow up the immigration reform package that is working its way through Congress at the moment.

    It’s clear, of course, that something’s gotta give sooner rather than later and that there is a lingering risk of an insurrection or even a secession crisis if Biden doesn’t handle things right.

    I also think that the main event — whatever it might be — will happen in late 2024, early 2025 after the 2024 Election happens.

This Clusterfuck Power Struggle Between Texas & The Feds Could Go A Number Of Different Ways

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The reason why the current stand off between the Feds and Texas is so dangerous is it taps into the race member of so many conservative white Southerners who have a lingering belief that “the South shall rise again.”

What surprises me is how much of a low simmer this provocative situation has been on since it started. We’ve yet to reach any sort of tipping point where all hell breaks out and the country collapses — even though the entire Right of the US seems determined to make that a reality.

If anything, on a personal basis, I can console myself with the idea that at the moment it seems as though if there is a Second Civil War it won’t be because “my side” — the Blues — started as I have long feared. That could still happen if things calm down in Texas and Trump cheats to win in 2024, but, for the moment, it will be Reds who will have to take the blame for destroying the greatest country in the world because of “vibes.”

But none of that has happened yet. It’s still possible that we’ll muddle through like we have so often in the past. That’s what I hope happens, at least.

Why Isn’t Mainstream Media Talking About The Power Struggle Between Texas & The Feds?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m slowly growing obsessed with what is going on between Texas and the Federal government at the border. So much so, that I find myself at a loss that the center-Left mainstream media has been pretty mum about what’s going on.

I think that maybe this is the case because they are making the editorial judgement that if THEY give it attention, the there’s a real risk that things will escalate and we’ll end up with either another insurrection or even a civil war. I get it. It makes sense.

But I am so starved for commentary about what’s going on that I am tempted to listen to Right wing podcasts which I’m SURE are all over this particular clusterfuck. I haven’t quite gotten there yet, but it may happen.

And it could be that something will happen sooner rather than later that will force the hand of the MSM and they’ll have to start talking about it.