Month: October 2023

Making Abstract Fears Concrete: Running Through Worse Case Biden Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my personality quirks is I like to make my many abstract fears concrete. As such, here are various absolute-worst-case-scenarios when it comes to Biden shuffling off this mortal coil.

  1. It happens after January 20th, 2025
    I don’t want it to happen at all, but if it DID happen, the best time for it happen for the country would be at some point during Biden’s second term. There is a specific set of events that would happen and after a proper amount of grief, the country could go back to tearing itself apart.
  2. It happens sooner rather than later
    If Biden shuffles off this mortal coil this late in the 2024 POTUS election cycle, then everything gets thrown up in the air. Chaos would descend upon the land. And, what’s worse, we STILL wouldn’t know if acting Speaker McHenry could become POTUS. And given how tense the country is, if there is some question as to if a Red Speaker of the House or a Blue Senate President Pro Temp was going to be POTUS, well, that’s a recipe for disaster. For that to happen, something really bad would have to happen, but the stakes would be so high that you know MAGA would figure out a way to force the issue one way or another.
  3. It happens later rather than sooner
    If such a horrible thing happens a lot later, but before, say, ballets are printed, then chaos would erupt. The key thing would be, such a horrible thing happening would make the 2024 Democratic Convention a sight to see because there would be a massive struggle over who the nominee would be.
  4. He lingers
    Another really bad scenario would be something happens such that the 25 Amendment has to be invoked. This horrible situation would also cause mass chaos because of how the country is tearing itself apart.
  5. It happens between Election Day and Certification Day
    The absolute worst situation would be Biden shuffles off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day. It’s happened once — as part of the election of 1872 — and the solution they used, with the dearly departed’s Electoral votes being dispersed to the living candidates doesn’t seem like a viable option in the modern era. I just don’t know what to tell you in that situation. I don’t think it would cause a civil war, but it would definitely be a “Not great, Bob,” situation.

Mike Pence Needs A Political Intervention

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When the history of this era of American history is written, the fate of one Mike Pence will be worth a few books. Given how “the Resistance” has accepted Liz Chaney with open arms, if Pence had a Road-to-Damascus moment and actually stood for some of the values he professes to believe and started hating on Trump, his life would be A LOT better.

I can’t promise you he’d ever be POTUS, but Pence’s political influence would increase dramatically if he became a Liz Chaney-like figure. If became something akin to a modern-day War Democrat, Pence would be on CNN and MSNBC a great deal. Hell, he might even get a show on one of those channels.

But, no. Pence is such a weak-willed weasel that he can not, will not do something so dramatic. It’s all sort of sad. The next speed bump that Pence is going to have to go over is what he’s going to do in late 2024, early 2025 should the country completely collapse.

Even if the country doesn’t collapse, given how Pence refused to do the one thing that might have kept Trump in office, you have to wonder if Trump goes full-tyrant on the American people that Pence might, at last, have his nuts descend and find his manhood.

I have my doubts, however. It definitively seems as though Pence has decided to simply fade away into political oblivion.

I’m Really Worried About What Literary Agents Will Find About Me When They Do Due Diligence

by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner

At the moment, I continue to drift towards my goal of being a traditionally published author in a delusional haze. But there is going to come a moment when I begin to query this novel when the cold, hard metrics of reality are going to come crashing down on me.

What I’m thinking about specifically is the due diligence that literary agents are inevitably going to do on me. Given that I’m 100% extroverted, I really have been out there on social media, being my drunk crank self. And that doesn’t even begin to address the various things I’ve said on this blog that could very easily get me “canceled.”

I’ve repeatedly been what some “woke cancel culture mob” people might say is “fat phobic” when I called Trump’s former Sectary of State Mike Pompeo a “fat fuck.” But not only did he deserve it because if he was ever POTUS, I’m the specific type person he would come after, but I would like to think such low brow political rhetoric is protected political speech.

But, no, any literary agent who sees that will probably just roll their eyes and move on.

That the thing about being a drunk crank who’s a loser who aspires to be a success — you just can’t win. The only difference between a drunk crank loser and someone who is “unique” is just success. But the transition from drunk crank loser to being “a colorful, unique eccentric” can be almost impossible because, generally, people are judgement assholes.

It all boils down to — I can’t help who the fuck I am. I just can’t help how old I am or that I’m a smelly “CIS white male” who likes to drink and spout off on various forms of social media while intoxictaed.

Slings and arrows and all that.

What Am I Going To Do About My Stalker Who Obsessively Reads This Blog

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m all for people reading this blog, but there is one person in my Webstats who is a bit EXCESSIVE. They check this blog so much during the course of one day that I am a bit uneasy. They used to be in California, but now they’re in the New York City Area.

I wish they would stop being so obsessive. It’s kind of freaking me out. I struggle to think why anyone would care enough about what I have to say to check this site so many times in one day. I have a hyperactive imagination to the point that I automatically assume the person has ill intent, even if they just find me a REALLY interesting person.

But, to date, I don’t see any reason to be TOO worried.

Mental Masturbation About My Novel One Day Being Adapted Into A Hollywood Movie

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the rules of thumb about writing a novel is one should avoid pontificating on the nature of any supposed Hollywood adaptation of your novel when you’re still struggling to get the damn thing done. But, lulz, I never do what I’m supposed to do, so here goes.

The key thing about this novel is, given both marketing and human nature, the thing everyone will hone in on is my heroine being both being involved in sex work and owning an alternative weekly. That is the thing that everyone will run around yelling and debating if this novel ever is sold and has even a modicum of success.

If I was a transgendered, undocumented twentysomething woman then, yes, of course, any qualms the “woke cancel culture mob” had about such a novel would evaporate. But here I am, a 50-year-old CIS white male writing something that in the eyes of some, I have no business writing about. Some people’s minds will shut down the moment they hear “stripper” and “written by a CIS white male.”

But, just for shits and giggles, let’s assume I somehow manage to get past that obstacle. Given what I know of Hollywood actresses, plenty of them would get off on playing such an interesting character, especially one in which they get a few scenes where they work the pole. And I have done my best not to make the whole stripper angle not seem to gratuitous.

It’s done in a rather matter-of-fact way. I like this potentially controversial element of the story because there’s all this conflict involved as the two sides of my heroine’s life occasionally smash into each other in unexpected an interesting ways.

In my mind, my heroine looks like a younger version of Olivia Munn. In fact, I would say Ms. Munn would be perfect to play the heroine, but for her being about a decade too old. Another woman who I have rolling around in my mind as I write my heroine is Nicole Scherzinger. But, again, she’s too old. But Ms. Scherzinger’s phenotype is definitely pretty much exactly what I have in mind as what my heroine looks like.

I’ve lost this actress’ name, but the below picture is a close approximation of my heroine’s appearance.

About what I imagine my heroine looks like as I write her.

Anyway, all of this is mental masturbation. I still have a long ways to go before I get anywhere near seeing the waking dreams of my novel on the big screen. But the story is really, really interesting and unexpected. The story isn’t nearly as dark as Stieg Larsson’s original Millennium series. That kind of shit just isn’t my scene.

But I’ve made the overall story interesting enough that I think its possible that by the time the development and writing process is over, I’ll be within shouting distance of getting an agent and, in turn a book deal. Of course, by the time all that happens I’ll be so fucking old that, well, ugh.

The Future Of Search

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though our relationship to Web search is about to be totally upended. The advent of AI indicates that there may come a time soon when we all have a Her-like digital assistant who searches the Web for us using vocal commands. What’s more, it’s also possible that the “practical obscurity” of the Dark Web will come to an end.

In the near future, a Her-like digital assistant may be able to search the entire Web — Dark Web, too — and give us information that maybe we don’t want to know or weren’t expecting.

The question is, of course, what does this sea change mean for Google?

I think it could be that Google will be one of several companies that SELLS you the Her-like AGI that helps you during the course of the day with voice commands. Or, put another way, it could be all the jobs we expect to happen because of a fusion of AGI and robotics could be from humans still having control over the back end.

Or maybe not.

AGI is a very powerful concept. Once AI comes anywhere close to being “more human than human,” I struggle to discern why any humans would have a job at all. That combination is so potent that a Universal Basic Income seems to be the inevitable conclusion.

But, who knows. I’m, as always, being very speculative and I can’t predict the future.

Contemplating JLaw

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a long-term fan of Jennifer Lawrence. She continues to be a very interesting person. One thing I’ve noticed about JLaw is she is your stereotypical hot girl who has female friends who are less attractive but are funny. If it’s not Amy Schumer, then JLaw is hanging out with Phoebe Waller-Bridge. (Though I do think Waller-Bridge is hot, in her own way.)

I suspect when JLaw was younger and single, dudes had to engage in Game Theory to figure out how to get her number while keeping her more homely friend occupied.

Another thing about JLaw is what the fuck was up with her and Harvey Weinstein back in the day. Though she denies it now, it definitely SEEMS as though she slept with that ogre in a quest to help her career. He certainly wanted everyone to think it happened.

The only reason why I even bring it up is if we knew one way or another what happened between the two of them, then we would have a far better sense of who JLaw is as person. Which, of course, is why we’ll probably never know. At least, not for a few decades.

But I really do like JLaw. She’s got a great personality and she seems to be settling into having something akin to a Meryl Streep career where she wins the occasional Oscar now and again.

It Definitely Seems As Though We’re Careening Towards a ‘Her’ Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though within 18 months, we may very well literally live in the world of the movie “Her,” with the world of “Ex Machina” not being far behind. The issue, of course, is are we ready for both a political crisis and a technological “Petite Singularity” happening at about the same time.

It also makes me wonder if it’s inevitable for MAGA to transition into a neo-Luddite movement. It would make a lot of sense for this to happen because a lot of the people who would be the most disrupted by a sudden lurch into the future would be, well, MAGA people.

I also think that 2024 will be the first presidential cycle whereby a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious policy issue. Of course, to get it, we’re probably going to have to have a 30% VAT and tax the economic activity of non-human actors.

I can’t predict the future. I don’t know what is going to happen. But I am both concerned and intrigued. A part of me believes that much like a WW3 paused a lot of consumer technological development, so, too, will the Fourth Turning / WW3. We may be so busy bombing ourselves into oblivion that we just don’t have the mental energy to do anything with AI.

But once we sort out what post WW3 world order will be, the, yeah, I could see us zooming towards some pretty cool, pretty exotic technological developments.

Contemplating My ‘Hysterical Doom Shit’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that is looming large in my mind is the idea that by framing the future of the United States the way I do, that I’m in, in essence, making it more likely that my fears will come true.

The option that I don’t think about very much is the one advocated by “Mueller, She Wrote.” She posits that lulz, a combination of the weight of the courts and Trump losing all the time politically will somehow “save us” from ourselves. Given that I can’t predict the future, I suppose that’s a real possibilty.

It could be that that is exactly what is going to happen and I’ve been worried over nothing.

Someone on Bluesky went so far as to suggest that by me navel gazing in such a hysterical doom shit way, that I am actually making it MORE LIKELY that my fears will come true.

This has given me pause for thought.

I can’t predict the future. I just don’t know. I really don’t. I’m just extremely uneasy about the next 18 months.

Pondering Why It’s Taken Me So Fucking Long To Write My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even though I have been in a VERY idyllic situation for writing my first novel, it’s still taken me far, far, far longer than it probably should have. I think some of it comes from I’m doing this in a vacuum and so all I have when it comes to how I want to write this novel is my own sense of storytelling a lot of arcane, arbitrary rules.

The ideal title for my first novel.
It would help a great deal if I had a wife or a girlfriend who could not only be my “reader” but who also might encourage me. As it stands, I have to self-motivated through a combination of anger at how no one takes me seriously and spite.

All of this is complicated by two things.

One, is, of course, my age. Even if I somehow stick the landing with this novel, I will probably be in my mid-50s before I see any sort of concrete success. If I wrote a break out hit novel that changed my life the way I feel I deserve, I will finally be in a position to settle down and have kids….just as all my peers are empty nesters with one eye on retirement.

The other complication is the fucking “Fourth Turning.” It definitely seems as though Something Bad is going to happen to the United States in late 2024, early 2025. What that “Something Bad” might be, I don’t know. But I’m working on the assumption that just as I’m ready to query my first novel in the fall of 2024, there is a good chance that there will be either a revolution or civil war in the United States that will make all of my hard work moot.

But there is also a chance that America will slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, which would help me long term, given that the point of this projected six novel series on a macro, subtextual level is me ranting about how much I fucking hate extremism in a general and MAGA specfically.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I do need to wrap this first novel up soon rather than later.