Month: September 2023

American Killing Fields? I’m Worried About Blue Cities In Red States Should A Second American Civil War Happen

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve noticed is a certain level of clueless, oblivious naivete on the part of some people who should know better when it comes to what a Second American Civil War might be like.

I’m working on the assumption that if there is an actual 2ACW, it will be because Trump loses in 2024 and, in a desperate attempt to evade prison and starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce and, lo and behold, states like Texas take him up on the idea.

There is a far small chance of a Blue “Resistance Revolution” if Trump wins and is incoming agenda is just too radical for Blues, but I have serious doubts that Blues, by nature, would have it in them to do such a thing.

But the issue is that any National Divorce would lead to a 2ACW because of how Purple the country is, in general. A lot of Red States have a dollop of Blue in them in the guise of their major cities. As such, if a state like Texas or Tennessee secedes, their Blue Cities will probably be the site of some serious fucking flashpoints.

There is a real risk that America will go all Cambodia on itself, with the rural areas of the country rising up and emptying the cities to establish American Killing Fields. Or something, something gruesome like that.

Way too many members of the nattering nabobs of negativism have STILL yet to come to grips with how dark our future is. American politics are collapsing before our very eyes and once we finally reach the Singularity — we’re probably going to fight it out in the real world with real weapons, instead of just being fucking keyboard warriors.

And, remember, once you crack the egg of civil war or revolution, things usually get out of control –just as the French. Once MAGA finally goes septic, loudmouth cranks like me will be right behind Jewish people when it comes to being packed up and sent to a weaponized ICE camps.

The main thing to remember is the United States is a lot less stable, in general, than we would like to think. It definitely seems as though 2024 will be the most significant election in American history since 1860. The only thing that spared us the symmetry of 2020 being it is, well, Mike Pence decided to destroy his political career by doing what he was supposed to.

But the issue remains –we are careening towards a potentially catastrophic near future. I, of course, can’t predict the future, so there is always a chance that some how, some way, we’ll do what we did in 2020 and find some sort of “third way” that allows us to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.

I just don’t know. They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so it could be one of those things where we just don’t know what is going to happen…until it happen.

A Hard Reboot of The ‘Terminator’ Franchise

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a number of scifi franchises that have been so strip mined over the years that they just need to be left alone for a little while. But the time will come when they can finally be hard rebooted for a new generation.

Here’s an idea for how to do it with the Terminator.

The movie ostensibly is simply a near shot-for-shot remake of the original, but with a far bigger budget. Maybe get someone like Jason Momoa to be the new Terminator.

But there would be a trick ending — Sarah Conner dies at the end of the second act!

The remainder of the film would be an exploration into an error on the part of the people who sent Kyle Reese back in time. They thought they were sending him back to the same timeline as their own, when, in fact, by definition, time travel causes a new timeline to be spawned the moment you appear in the past.

This is a way to bring new life into a very old and beat up franchise. I think Gen Z would really dig the use of the multiverse concept.

Imagining a SNL ‘Unfrozen Caveman Governor’ Sketch

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is self-evident how much Ron DeSantis looks like the late Phil Hartman’s classic character Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer. This, of course, gets me thinking about how SNL might bring back the character this fall (whenever the writers’ and actors’ strikes end.)

You open with the same opening as the original sketch, only it instead of him being a lawyer, he’s governor of Florida. You have him making a campaign speech where he talks about the “woke mind virus” and how it’s as powerful as the mastodons he had to hunt 10,000 years ago. Or something, something like that.

I would really lean into the idea that he’s “caveman conservative” and that reflects in his policy ideas. Extra points if you can somehow shoehorn those type of ideas into what DeSantis actually believes.

The inciting incident of the sketch would be him ending his speech and him walking around talking to different people. One of them might be Donald Trump and they trade barbs or something.

Another way you might do it is as a recorded campaign ad whereby Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer goes through the benefits of having a president that was born 10,000 years ago.

An Interesting Hard First Contact Movie Concept

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While we’re rushing towards Hollywood being “moneyballed” by the AI revolution, I do continue to dream up movie ideas. I only share this one because I’m too preoccupied by my first novel to do anything with it. And, besides, I’m so fucking old that by the time I go around to doing anything with it, AI will have taken over.

Anyway, someone write a screenplay about the finer points of the after effects of hard First Contact by, say, some sort of “Galactic Empire.” What if the entire planet was run as a vassal state of that empire? Who would run it? How would it be administered? What would its capital be?

The current idea I have is something like this — we have hard First Contact and our “Governor General” for the empire is some sort of huge insect-like creature who puts earth’s new capitol somewhere in the tropics because it needs the damp and warmth to lay its eggs in.

I find the idea of Luang Prabang in Laos being earth’s capitol as rather amusing and interesting. The specifics of how that might happen are very intriguing. Then there is the issue of what happens if our new colonial rulers totally ignore the political boundaries that our “tribe nations” have agreed upon?

There is a lot to explore. It would be an interesting novel, yes, but an even more interesting movie because of the visual element of seeing 6-foot-tall insect aliens walking around, telling humans what to do.

Anyway. Lulz. Nothing matters.

Things Are Going Well With The Third Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The chief thing I find myself mulling a lot with this third draft is character. I need to understand my characters and their motivation better. I need to make it so readers actually, like, care what happens to these character that I’ve come up with.

It’s interesting that I have plot pretty much nailed down but I continue to really struggle with character. Things are a lot better than they used to be, but there remains room for improvement.

Things have improved a great deal on the character front with this third draft of my first novel because I’ve added a number of scenes to the beginning. I have been able to give both my characters and a number of interesting plot points the breathing room they need.

Way too much was going on too quick with the second draft. And that’s something that a lot of the beta readers complained about. I now think I’ve fixed that problem, but the novel is shaping up to be a fair bit longer as a result.

But the both longer and better now. I’m feeling pretty good, all things considered. I still have a lot of existential angst about being so fucking old. I have six novels in this project pretty well thought out and I know I can actually write them all — if I don’t drop dead first.

Always look on the bright side of life, you know?

My big fear is that, of course, the fucking Fourth Turning will happen in late 2024, early 2025 or AI will make the entire idea of a human-created novel moot and quaint.

But I write because I have to, not because I want to. I create for the sake of creation.

Biden’s Impeachment As ‘Benghazi 2.0’ — The Lead Up To Autocracy or Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The whole point of the Biden “impeach inquiry” on the part of House Republicans (and Trump) is simply to create some for of false moral equivalence between Biden and Trump on election day. Either people will not vote or the calculous they use to vote will be so fucked up from a shame impeachment of Biden that Trump wins.

We have to begin to accept that we’re careening towards the most decisive presidential election in American history since 1860. At the moment, barring something none of us can predict, Trump is going to win in 2024 — or we have a civil war.

There is, of course, a very small chance that we might have a “Blue Revolution” if Trump wins, but I doubt it. Smug Twitter Liberals already have one foot out the door with second passports, so lulz, they’re going to be too busy relocating to the south of France to help Poors like us.

Eat the rich.

Anyway, as I keep saying, you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen to the United States. Once Trump is president again, America is going to have a very Germany 1933 vibe to it. I don’t think there’s going to be anything stopping MAGA’s consolidation of power in 2025 if Trump wins.

That will be that. Trump will be the transitional figure between us being in an anocracy and an autocracy. America will leave NATO and South Korea and the entire post-WW2 global order will be thrown up in the air. Russia will win its war of aggression against Ukraine and the already existent ICE camp infrastructure will be weaponized.

In 20 years — or less– Americans will wake up and wonder why we’re invading Canada to save it from “the woke mind virus.”

If Trump doesn’t win, meanwhile, we have a civil war. Or come close to one. The deep echo of the first civil war is alive and well in the South and, as such Texas will leave the Union and that will set off a cascading series of events with no obvious endgame.

And, of course, there will probably be WW3 as all of that is happening.

Good luck. You’ll need it.

A.I. Is So Nerdy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I totally get why there are such strict restrictions on AI dealing with “provocative” topics, but it sure does make it difficult for me to use it to develop the novel I’m working on.

Ugh.

I have to be really careful about the subject matter addressed in individual scenes because if it has anything too spicey or colorful in it, all the AI options simply balk and won’t have anything to do with it.

But, like I said, I get it. I understand why. It’s just annoying.

And, yet, really, the more I use AI for novel development, the less I think it’s very useful. Occasionally AI will spit out something that is really helpful, but usually it either doesn’t understand what I need from it, or the suggestions it provides are just dumb.

But I will note that we’re still in the early stages of the LLM revolution. There remains a greater-than-zero-sum-chance that Hollywood as we know it will burn to the ground soon enough and there will only be Suits and Programmers left when the dust settles.

The Extremely Dumb Rationale Behind The House Republicans ‘Impeachment Inquiry’ of Biden

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any discussion of what’s going on with House Republicans being hell bent to simply be able to use the word “impeachment” a lot when it comes to Biden has to first remember how the first impeachment in American history went down. As I recall, Radical Republicans were so angry at Andrew Johnson that they impeached him without even knowing why they they were doing it.

They just wrote in the articles later.

So, here we are, with it seeming as though the United States is either going to turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or have some sort of secessionist crisis at some point in the near future. At the moment, it definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 is going to be a crucial moment in American history, where we decide our form of government for generations to come.

Anyway, it seems as though in some respects, the “impeachment inquiry” against Biden is happening for several reasons. One reason is sheer spite — House Republicans want to strike back at Biden for Trump being a criminal. They also want to both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is being impeached and thus can’t be re-elected while at the same time poo-pooing the idea that Trump has been impeached twice.

“It happens to every president these days,” is what they want people to think.

Also, remember, this is white knuckled power politics. House Republicans simply want cover for using the word “impeachment” on Fox News, in hopes that all that white noise bullshit will lodge itself into the minds of low information voters in five swing states and be 2024’s “Benghazi.” At the moment, they don’t even have the votes to actually launch an impeachment inquiry, much less actually impeach Biden.

But, lulz, they’re going to do it anyway because they can say “the only way we can find the truth is with an impeachment inquiry.” It’s a similar logic to how Republicans vote against popular programs, then take the credit for them when they are implemented in their districts.

It’s a win-win: they get to tell Red voters that they voted against big government spending and they get to take credit for popular programs in the minds of Blues and independents.

I do find it curious that Republicans are so dumb and ill-focused that they didn’t decide to impeach Biden for the “border crisis” or any number of actual problems in the country, rather than nebulous bullshit involving Biden and his son. It’s all very strange to me.

But, regardless, we have to accept that what’s going on in the House is ping for a not-so-distant future where we either are no longer a democracy, or our political system finally collapses into real world political violence. I hate violence, but I would suggest you get ready.

MTG Keeps Proving My Theory Of The Case About The Nature Of A Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future, but I have for years now written about how I believe if there is an actual civil war, it won’t be some sort of mass freak out by AR-15 toting MAGA morons. It’s going to be a proper old school civil war with a secession crisis and the whole she-bang.

Just look at this tweet by Marjorie Taylor Greene:

The above words definitely seem to indicate that Republicans have secession on the brain if they don’t get what they want. And I still think that if there is a Secession Crisis in late 2024, early 2025 because Trump loses that Texas will be the first state to call up a secessionist convention.

Though I suppose it’s possible that Texas might defer to South Carolina out of a sense of historical symmetry. Of course, given the large African American population in South Carolina secession MIGHT be a hard sell in that state, even though apparently most of the Republicans in that state think “the South Shall Rise Again.”

But we’re still too far out — I just don’t know the specifics of any so-called “Fourth Turning.” The issue I just can’t predict is how serious Republicans are about leave the Union in a National Divorce if Trump doesn’t win. It could be all talk, even if Trump is going to be ranting at the top of his lungs that there should be a National Divorce so he doesn’t have to go to prison.

All I can tell you is — any National Divorce or subsequent 2ACW is going to be very, very, very messy and will probably prompt World War 3 while it’s at it. Hold on tight, things might be bumpy starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Republicans Painting Democrats as ‘Baby Killers’ May Lead To Severe, Dark Consequences

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something very alarming is beginning to become a mainstream tenant of faith for Republicans — the idea that Democrats are “baby killers.” Republicans probably are doing this at the moment just because it’s a convenient way to juice the base and appeal to low information voters, but long term, oh fucking boy.

The notion that Democrats as a group advocate murdering babies is just the type of dehumanizing tactic that might lead to God-only-knows-what at some point in the future. It’s very similar, of course, to the Blood Libel that the Nazis committed against the Jews.

Do I think things might get that bad? I guess…not? I just don’t know. I can’t game things out that much. But it’s definitely a “Not great, Bob,” type of situation when you have a major political party in a failing democracy accusing the membership of its rivals of something so heinous.

My fear is, of course, that MAGA will go septic and the next thing you know, MAGA Republicans will be in power again and they’ll start rounding up center-Left people in the name of “saving babies.”

Shiver. What a dark and tragically possible future.