Month: August 2023

Trump’s New World Order: The End of NATO

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With it growing more and more clear that malignant ding-dong Trump is probably going to win re-election in 2024, we have to start taking seriously the consequences of that particular political tragedy.

The most obvious foreign policy clusterfuck that will happen in a Trump second term is the end of NATO. What’s more, Trump will probably do everything in his power to hand over the entirety of Ukraine to the Russians. Given how bonkers and enamored Trump is with Russian-style autocracy, not even a complete rearrangement of the existing post-WW2 world order is out of the question.

And, what’s more, Trump could pull out our 28,000 man “tripwire” in South Korea as all of this is going on.

Now, it is difficult to comprehend exactly how the world’s nations would react to such momentus foreign policy moves on the part of King Ding-Dong I. But such an event would create not just chaos, but something of a power vacuum that would probably be filled by China.

And, in all honesty, I have to admit that in the back of my mind the idea that all the smug Twitter liberals might stop their massive exodus from the states if it was clear that Trump was going to remake not just America, but the world, in his deranged image.

Again, let me be clear — I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns, I hate violence and I’m a man of ideas and peace. Besides, I’m too old to make much of a difference to anything — or anyone — no matter how bad things might get. I suppose some overzealous ICE agent might murder me because I refuse to shut up about what a fucking cocksucker Trump is, but, lulz, other than that, no.

But Trump really gets as bad as we all fear, there is a least a small chance that he may spark something akin to a revolution on the part of Blues. There is always the chance it will fail and MAGA will only consolidate power in its aftermath, but I think we aren’t giving enough credience to the idea that there is a small chance that it won’t be Reds who freak out and take to the streets, but Blues.

I still don’t think that’s possible. Trump is going to win a second term and we will slide peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy. At least 1 million smug wealthy Blues will leave the country starting Election Day and that will be that. Soon enough, the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and I’ll be rounded up.

Wish me luck.

‘Do Not Comply’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — continues to be enraged by the COVID restrictions of several years ago. They talk about how much they think they were “lied to” by the elites, yadda, yadda, yadda, blah, blah, blah.

Whenever this relative mentions grievance –which is often — I note to him that that is not how Republicans will win the 2024 election. Unless there is a significant uptick in COVID cases that leads to an attempt to bring by COVID restrictions, people in 2024 are going to want 2024 solutions, rather than someone who looks back at what happened in 2020.

Apparently, there is some belief within Righwing Twitter that those restrictions are coming back this fall. I find this fear delusional for a number of reasons, the chief of which is there just is no political will to do such a thing. Thousands of people could be dying a day from COVID this fall and winter and, lulz, there will be absolutely no political will to do anything about it.

It does make you wonder what will happen if some sort of pandemic happens in the future that is far, far worse than what we experienced with COVID. There is a real risk that if some sort of Big One happens that it could be that not until 10,000 people are dying a day will we manage to have any sort of political will to lock the country down.

Podcasting — Especially Crooked Media– Needs To Grow Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I listen to a lot of podcasts on a regular basis and it’s embarrassing how many big-time podcasts continue to have their hosts read advisements. The worst instance of this is Crooked Media.

It’s very jarring to hear people from Pod Save America reading ads when I come to them for reasonably objective, fact-based information. I understand them doing this when they were a scrappy start up, but they’re rather well established now.

It’s embarrassing for them to do something as dumb as to half-heartedly read an ad that they don’t even believe in. The Crooked Media hosts to read this ads definitely don’t take the job very seriously. They need just bow out of reading their ads altogether.

Of course, no one listens to me, so this is all a lulz. But podcasting is no longer a fringe form of media. It needs to reflect it’s mainstream status by establishing a Chinese wall between content and advertising.

The Bolts Continue To Pop Off The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is while it’s happening, there is no narrative. As such, if you were living through, say, World War 2, the whole thing was value free. No one had any idea how, exactly, it was going to end. It was only, in hindsight, that we realized how obvious it was that the Nazis would be defeated.

I keep thinking about this as we careening towards late 2024, early 2025 when something akin to so-called Fourth Turning may occur. It seems to me at the moment that we’re just going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Smug, wealthy Blues who would otherwise be the leadership in any effort to do something about America’s transition into autocracy will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.

But there is a greater-than-zero chance that the two other scenarios might happen. It could be that either we have a civil war when Trump somehow manages to lose, or w revolution if Blues balk at our transition into an autocracy.

But remember, no one can predict the future. While it’s easy for center-Left people like me to think that we could solve all our problems by defeating MAGA on the battlefield, I hate violence and there’s no assurance that we, the Good Guys, will ultimately win.

So, it’s just as possible that Reds will successfully establish Trumplandia or any attempt at a Blue Revolution will fail and allow the consolidation of MAGA power as it is that we get to have the “cool stuff” associated with a Second Reconstruction.

All I can tell you is I will be astonished if we somehow, some way, manage to punt our structural problems down the road another four years. It definitely seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.

The Influence of ‘The Martian’ On My Time Travel Scifi Concept

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I have the general plot of my time travel concept down pat, I am struggling with some basic details. The chief amongst them being, where the story takes place. I know when –what year in the past — but I don’t know where exactly where.

The most obvious location is on Manhattan Island. The reason is, if I really do a good enough job of detailing what is known about the island before the Dutch arrived, that would probably go over well with a lot of readers in big cities. And, yet, this comes with a downside — I would really have to do my research. I would really have to know exactly what the specific site that I’m thinking about looked like to a degree that the typical New Yorker would find the story interesting.

I’m early enough in the process that I could just as well plop my characters somewhere else and not have to worry so much about making sure specific sites look like what we know them to look like before Europeans arrived. I am tempted, in fact, to make that a plot point — that our Hero knows exactly where they are and wants to stay there, which causes a lot of conflict.

At the moment, I’m torn between these two possible locations.

I just don’t know. One has a hook that makes it more interesting to a powerful part of the audience, while the other is easier and would allow me to finish the novel a lot sooner.

But things are moving really fast with this novel. I think my “textbook” for this novel will be The Martian because that novel is really fun and character driven and deals with a similar problem, if in a dramatically different way. And my story is different because my hero has to deal with OTHER people, not just himself and that adds complications that greatly help with the development of the plot.

I’m very pleased with how quickly I’ve managed to plot out this new novel. It is interesting enough — and deals with themes that I love enough — that it’s exactly what I’ve been looking for in a “second tract.” It will be in first person, have one (male) POV and hopefully be short enough that all the metrics of modern novel writing will be met.

This is in contrast to my main novel project which, even though it’s meant to be an old brown shoe to Stieg Larsson fans, may be DOA because — among other things — I’m a smelly CIS white male who writes at times from a female POV. But I still love the novel enough to keep at it, despite the potential risks.

Anyway, I feel much happier now that I have a solid backup novel to work on in case The Worst happens with my mystery-thriller. I don’t know what that might be, but I having a backup definitely gives me some much-needed piece of mind.

The Fire Next Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is growing chatter online that because of rising COVID cases that there may be some sort of move towards a return to pandemic-era restrictions. I just don’t see such a thing happening.

There is just no political will for any such thing to happen. The number of COVID cases could surge to dramatic, frightening levels and there STILL would be no political will do go back to any pandemic restrictions.

Everything is very much up in the air about what might happen, so it could be that we’re going to get really worked up over nothing. But the fall and winter is usually when there is an uptick in things like COVID and so it’s at least possible that that might happen.

But, like I said, even if things get really, really dire and we have 1 or 2,000 deaths a day, just like the bad old days and, lulz, the outrage over any form of restrictions would be so intense that absolutely nothing would happen. We would just take it for granted that way, way, way more people are dying of COVID than is necessary.

I continue to fear that we may see a dramatic twist of fate in the near term that will throw all of our expectations about the 2024 presidential election cycle up the air in a big way. What that might be, I have no idea.

A Lazy Review of ‘Oppenheimer’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I almost didn’t go see Oppenheimer because I felt I knew enough of what happened in the movie from Tik-Tok videos that I didn’t need to. But I felt compelled to see it and I’m really glad that I did.

My key takeaway from the movie was that Christopher Nolan wanted to keep the audience off kilter in an effort to reflect what happened in real life with Oppenheimer. There were some pretty big twists in the confirmation plot line that I just didn’t see coming.

And, what’s more, the issue of if the United States should have dropped the A-Bomb was another interesting moral conundrum. It’s kind of sad that the dropping of the A-Bomb is one of a number of loaded historical issues that is almost impossible to talk about honestly without risking being “canceled.”

Anyway, in general, I really liked the movie. It is definitely a “dude” film in that it deals with “dude stuff.” I’m not suggesting women won’t like it or that women can’t do “dude stuff,” just that the audience for the film is obvious men who want to see other men do “dude stuff.”

The seemingly ever-growing number of issues that are taboo to even broach in our “woke” modern world is enough to make one just want to lie in bed and stare at the ceiling. I still think, though, that it’s at least possible that the existential nature of so-called Fourth Turning may cause all our notions of “woke” discourse to seem rather quaint.

Things Are Going Well — At The Moment — With My Creative Life

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I sat down today and was able to sketch out the entire plot of a scifi novel that I may consider turning into a screenplay. I have managed to figure out a way so a specific issue that would slow me down a great deal is no longer an issue. So, really, all systems are go for a “backup” novel.

Meanwhile, I’m both wrapping up the additional scenes I’ve added to the mystery-thriller and going through and rewriting — as necessary — those scenes I’ve already written. The general premise of these new, additional scenes is pretty good but if I’m going to use this draft as the one I turn over to a manuscript consultant, I’m going to have to re-write them to prevent them from being the first thing an editor wants to cut.

I say this because the advice I keep seeing about writing a novel is you’re supposed to start the story as late as possible. One of the reasons why I have added all these additional scenes at the beginning is I want to build a foundation for the story that by the time something actually happens, you’re invested enough, intrigued enough, that you want to finish the novel.

The only problem I’m really having with my writing at the moment is I continue to just drift towards my goal. If I keep doing this, I’m going to wake up in a year and not be anywhere near my goal of having begun the querying process. In fact, it could be that The Fourth Turning is happening, making all my dreams of selling a novel rather moot.

It’s a real struggle to focus on giving my creative life some structure. I’m just so used these days to drifting that demanding I meet self-set metrics is proving to be far more difficult than one might imagine.

AI Is About To Transform Hollywood

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m old enough to remember the dawn of the Internet. And, but for how my brain is wired, I probably would be on a yacht today snorting cocaine off the asshole of a “yacht girl.”

I just can not, for the life of me, process how to code. So, 30 years ago, I could understand the implications of the looming Internet revolution, but there was squat I could do on a practical basis to benefit from it. And even when I did benefit from it, I found myself wanting to be a writer.

Go figure.

Anyway, the point is — all signs point towards AI totally and completely revolutionizing recorded media of any sort, be it TV, movies or even — gulp — novels. There is going to be some serious futureshock at some point in the next 18 months as we lurch into a future where there are two types of people involved in entertainment — plutocrat suits and software programmers.

There will be no other humans involved.

And I say this being well aware of the fact that the courts have recently decided that you can’t copyright AI-generated art. Given the billions of dollars on the line, the suits will figure out some way to work around this particular problem soon enough.

We need to adjust our expectations as to what Hollywood will look like in a few years. Our only hope at the moment, it seems, is after the novelty wears off, that people will begin to seek out “artisanal art” that they know was created by the hand of Man.

That’s just a sliver, but that’s all we got at this point.

Let Them Fight

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In a growing sign of how surreal the modern world is, and how difficult it is sometimes to get through news headlines with a straight face — Elon Musk has blocked Catturd on “X.”

This comes after Space Karen made a big deal about how he wants to eliminate the ability to “block” someone on X. (I still have to do a double take whenever I write out “X” instead of “Twitter.”)

Anyway, the whole thing is bonkers. Both that Musk would block Catturd and the idea that Musk would do away with Blocking in favor of “enhanced Mute.” For someone so smart, Musk totally misses what is going on with social media at the moment.

If I was Musk, I would be a lot more focused on dragging X into AI era than I would screwing around with basic, existing features like Block. It is very easy to imagine a scenario whereby you could organically make an AI prompt a central feature of the text-based X.

And, yet, here we are, yelling at each other about the “who shot John” specifics of being blocked or even having the ability to block someone. We are living through the twilight of social media and Space Karen would be smart to leverage the user base of X in preparation for the next technological era, rather than worrying about dumb feature issues.

But, then, it’s not like I had $42 billion on hand to buy Twitter, only to drive into the ground.