by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Sometimes, it seems as though the issue these days is more about which side of the political spectrum will get mad enough to resort to widespread political violence should the time come than anything else. I continue to be bemused by people who seem to think state governments won’t get involved if there is a “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.
So, here are two scenarios about what might happen in late 2024, early 2025.
MAGA Civil War
In this scenario, somehow, magically, Trump isn’t re-elected in 2024. I find it very dubious that there is anything stopping him winning at this point, but, lulz — I can’t predict the future. Ok, in this scenario, Trump loses — or doesn’t manage to steal — the 2024 election and when he starts ranting…and ranting…and ranting…about how the election was “stolen” from him “again” the first thing that happens is there is widespread wildcat violence to the point that people don’t feel comfortable if their politics don’t fit the presidential politics of the state they live in. As such, there’s a lot of bouncing around, with Blues leaving Red states and Reds leaving Blue States. But that’s just the beginning. Ultimately, Red States — probably staring with Texas — will call up Secessionist conventions and they will begin to leave the Union. Before you know it, there really is a National Divorce and a Second American Civil War. We bomb ourselves into oblivion trying to fix this problem — probably with the aid of the DPRK. What’s more, WW3 breaks out because of all this bullshit and then, after about five years of unprecedent death and destruction (if we’re lucky it’s just that short) we come out the otherside deciding once and for all if America is a democracy or an autocracy. What’s more as all of this is happening, AI will be careening towards us at an alarming rate.
Resistance Revolution
But what happens if Trump wins? Well, then I think we don’t have a civil war, but rather a revolution. I say that because 1) revolutions are generally progressive in nature 2) the Right in the United States has the deep cultural echo of the secession to hook their hopes and dreams onto. Secession is an easy sell to a lot of fucking Southern rednecks who grow up their entire lives assuming that the South will “rise again.” As such, it could be when it becomes clear that Trump is going to become a tyrant, I could see that a Blue Revolution breaks out — again, on the state level –that involves not secession, but some attempt to topple the “Magadonia” regime. In real terms, the only different between a MAGA Civil War and a Resistance Revolution would be context and marketing, but, lulz — sucks to be you MAGA. Again, if this happens, there would be WW3 in the context of a potential Petite Singularity rushing towards us at an alarming rate.
It’s very much up in the air which side would win or how long either of these tragic historic events would take. The whole idea stinks and sucks and I don’t want it — but we have to take the idea that one way or another the United States may be about to go through a era of political violence not seen since 1861 – 1865.
