by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I believe that the so-called “Fourth Turning” is astrology for dudes, but it’s a useful shorthand for what I believe may happen in late 2024 – early 2025 between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
Now, I can’t predict the future. So, lulz, I’m probably wrong. The following is a mixture of entertainment and wild speculation. I’m just working on the assumption that we won’t dodge the bullet that we dodged in 2020 – 2021.
Anyway, with out of the way, a key place to keep an eye on is California. There are two ways that we might find ourselves talking about a Secessionist Crisis when it comes to California. One is, the agenda for the incoming MAGA president is so radical that it forces the issue, while the other is the Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that we all start thinking about Blues leaving the Union.
And, what’s more, there’s the issue of what the agenda of California leaving the Union might be. Would it be just to establish its own nation-state or would it be to join forces with other Blue states to form a new Blue Union? That is really up the air this far out. It could go either way.
Honestly, I just don’t see this happening. Rather than put up a fight, millions of wealthy liberals will actually do what they’ve been grumbling about doing for years now — vote with their feet. Blue states bend a knee to fascism and we wake up 20 years from now with the same POTUS who is, for some reason, babbling about “deNazifying” Canada of all places.
But this particular nightmare scenario is at least something to think about going forward over the course of the next two or so years. Remember, though, I’m always, always, wrong. So, lulz.
