by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
While there are some alarming signs that something is brewing, I find the idea that the Russians would actually use nukes of any sort on Ukraine very dubious. Yes, a few of Russia’s close allies have told their citizens to get out of Ukraine, but that could mean anything. It doesn’t mean that something as dire as the use of tactical nukes against Ukraine by the Russians is imminent.
If the Russians did use tactical nukes on Ukraine, what would that look like?
I am not an expert, but just a back of the envelope scenario would suggest that if Russia was going to go through the trouble of breaking a 75 year taboo against the use of nukes of any sort, they would probably strike Kyiv pretty hard in an effort to decapitate the Ukrainian government. You could make the argument that what might happen is this: Russia nukes Kyiv a few times and then the Belarusian army would swoop in and take control of the city, demanding the Ukrainians sue for peace.
Also, logically, they would use a number of tactical nukes up and down the existing front line in an effort to soften it up. And, the Russians would likely, while they were at it, strike a number of other major cities across Ukraine in an effort to get their point across.
The use of any WMD by the Russians would probably start WW3 because it would set off a cascading series of events where other simmering hotspots across the globe would flair up rather dramatically.
If this all happened before the 2022 midterms, it could really change the political dynamic going into November in a rather dramatic fashion. There would be a “rally around the flag” type thing, which would probably help Biden’s poll numbers significantly.
Anyway, I don’t think we have anything to worry about.
