Month: August 2022

Should We Be Worried About Great Britain This Winter?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In general terms, Great Britain is Europe’s last multi-ethnic nation. I’m no expert on British politics, but the news that heating prices in the UK will jump a whopping 80% this winter is cause for alarm. That’s the stuff of revolutions. In fact, revolutions typically happen in a country when there is a problem with basic necessities — like heating.

So, this particular scenario writes itself. Britain has its first serious cold snap and millions of Brits aren’t able to properly heat their homes. They freak out and hit the streets. Then, the general divisions in the UK among the different ethnic groups begin to become more noticeable. What’s worse, the general unease the population feels about the imminent, inevitable demise of Queen Elizabeth also starts to come into play.

But, let me be clear — I’m always wrong. Always. As such, it’s possible that despite the shock to the British political system, they will use the old British stiff upper lip to muddle through.

And, yet, one reason why I’m concerned about the fate of Great Britain is the United States and Great Britain historically are in lock step. Major political trends can happen in one and then show up in the other after a few years. In the 1970s, there was the Thatcher Revolution and then in 1981 there was the Reagan Revolution. The US had Trump and then the UK got Boris Johnson.

I am therefore worried that if something dramatic happens in Great Britain — a Great Reset, if you will — then a similar instability will occur here in the United States. A lot of macro trends are coming to a head in the United States in the general late 2024, early 2025 timeframe.

If I was writing for VOX, I would, at this point, give you an explainer about What It All Means and how you can protect you and your family. But, lulz, I have no idea. Good luck.

Feeling Content At The Moment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As summer comes to an end, I feel rather content. At the moment, I am peacefully living in oblivion without anyone being angry at me or there being any overarching chaos in my life. I don’t have any celebrities thinking I’m obsessed with them and I can be my freaky weirdo self in peace.

The good old days with the late Annie Shapiro.

The key thing about life is to recognize those moments in time when you’re actually happy. And, at the moment, that’s what I am. It’s a peaceful easy feeling.

Now, the question is, of course, how long will this last? Well, logic would say that the moment summer is officially over and all the wealthy Twitter liberals are done doing butt stuff with anonymous Plebes at Burning Man that chaos will return, at least until Election Day. Then we’ll spend a few days processing the 2022 midterms — what ever they may be — then we’ll all zone out again until the new Congress is sworn in sometime in January.

Of course, throw in Trump either being indicted, announcing is 2024 bid, becoming Speaker of the House or a combination of all three.

But, for the time being, I think I’m going to soak up this peace and contentment.

I Got A Bad Feeling About The NARAlago Special Master

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is so dumb and his political instincts such a grunt, that the idea that his MAGA appointed judge handling the NARAlago raid would grant him a Special Master is a serious red flag. There is a good chance that somehow, someway the granting of a Special Master will be how Trump escapes on both a political and criminal basis.

I say this because Trump was so late in asking for a Special Master that ostensibly the whole issue is moot — the FBI has used it’s own taint team to look through the files and sort everything out. So, the judges’ granting of a Special Master seems like shenanigans. Something that we’ll look back upon and says, “Well, we should have known that Trump would escape again.”

And even if you’re charitable and give the Trump-appointed the benefit of the doubt and say she’s giving Trump his Special Master because she’s afraid he’ll turn on her and sick the MAGA hordes on her — that’s pretty dark, too.

All of this is yet another sign that Trump is above the law and we have the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025. It definitely looks as though Trump is going to escape yet again and be the 2024 Republican nominee. Either he starts a civil war because he brazenly steals the 2024 election or his agenda for is second term is so radical that states like California start heading for the doors.

Regardless, as I keep saying, the United States as we know it now is either going to fade away into autocracy or we’re going to have a massive reset that will be something akin to a reactionary MAGA “revolution” or civil war.

My Hot Take On The Sydney Sweeney MAGA Kerfuffle

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As someone who has a lot of Traditionalists in my family, I feel Sydney Sweeney’s pain when it comes to having family members whose politics you disagree with. While no one in my family wears red MAGA caps, the situation is similar.

And, yet there is also the Germany expression about how if you have 12 people at a table — 11 Nazis and 1 non-Nazi — you have 12 Nazis at the table. Seeing all those MAGA people in Sweeney’s family and the public’s reaction to it definitely gives us a reminder of how polarized America is at the moment.

But I do think we should give her a pass. She can’t be held responsible for the political views of her relatives. That’s just life. We all have to deal with how we can be different than people we’re related to. That’s a universal problem and we just have to accept that it’s possible that while she loves her relatives, she can also totally disagree with their politics.

This particular controversy is definitely an indication of how America is, in general, spiraling towards a very dark future. If politics starts to tear families apart, we definitely are entering a new antebellum era. But, for the most part, I would just say, “Sydney Sweeney alone.”

Will ‘NARAlago’ Be Just Another Scandal Baked Into Steaming Political Shit Cake That Is Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of the moment is if Trump will pay any — any — political price for stealing dozens of Top Secret documents. At the moment, I don’t think so. I think he’s going to get away with it. And if he doesn’t there is a real risk of unpreceded political violence.

Things are so fucked up right now with American politics that the most logical outcome is Trump potentially causing the death of CIA agents will be that the MAGA New Right not only shrugs it off, but clings ever tighter to Trump. I am growing seriously concerned that we’re going to reached something akin to a political Upside Down where Trump goes transactional and single handedly starts a civil war in the United States.

The only reason why NARAlago happened in the first place is Trump simply refused to do what he was asked to do when it was done politely. It’s just not in Trumps nature to abide by what any other normal person would do in a similar situation. So, because he’s a malignant idiot, he forced the Federal government to swoop in and take what they couldn’t otherwise get.

But, again, I think we’re mistaking that for any sort of likelihood that Trump will ultimately be held accountable in a court of law. In the end, NARAlago will simply increase the partisan divisions in the United States and be forgotten except for a few of the usual suspects on Twitter.

As I keep saying, there are a number of instances where Trump could single handedly start a civil war in the United States. If he is the 2024 Republican nominee instead of DeSantis, the risk of a civil war grows significantly because of how radical his second term agenda will be.

The Boys Of Summer

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though this is the nadir of the year. All the wealthy liberals are preparing for Burning Man where they hope to do anonymous butt stuff with some random Plebe. Meanwhile, this could be the calm before the storm for everyone else.

A lot of “thought leaders” are so tuned out at the moment that when they finally jack back into the world in early September that the various crisis we are dealing with at the moment will lurch forward. And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of the 2022 midterms.

If Republicans gain power again, we are all very, very fucked. It’s going to get really dark really quick. Remember, there is always a chance that Trump might demand to be Speaker of the House, especially if you think about how there’s at least a chance that he might face an indictment. (I find this very dubious, however.)

What will become clear in January 2023 if Republicans gain control of the House is how quickly they will move to impeach both Biden and Harris just for existing. And, what’s more, as I’ve written before, they might get so excited that they impeach Biden accidently on purpose. At least the first time. There is a lot of bent up rage within the fascist MAGA Republicans to get revenge on Democrats about impeachment and, as such, Biden and Harris will be impeached simply out of momentum.

So, as I keep saying, I suggest you enjoy these last few days of living in a semi-functioning democracy (anocracy.) America remains a nation on edge and there’s a good chance that things will grow very, very bumpy a lot sooner than you might think.

Trump, Indictment & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything about anything. I’m often, if not usually, wrong. But here, nonetheless, is my hot take on the question of the moment — “Will Trump be indicted?”

No. I don’t think he will be. I think, in the end, this will be just another Bad Thing that is baked into the cake when it comes to Trump. I say this because it’s clear that Republicans have done a gut check and since the base is fired up about what happend — and not in a good way — they have decided to hunker down and cling to Trump even tighter.

Now, remember, Trump is a very complex historical figure because not only is he just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage, he also refuses to get out of the way to DeSantis can finish the job he started. What’s more, even if he did get out of the way, then, like I said, we’re doomed in a different way. DeSantis (or someone like him) will become America’s first autocrat and that will be that. We’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why DeSantis is still president. We’ll also wonder why we have to use VPN to watch the BBC talk about how horrible things are in the United States.

The other alternative, obviously, is civil war. And if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee then the likelihood of a National Divorce grows dramatically because he always says the “quiet part out loud.” He will cheat to win the 2024 election, even if he doesn’t have to. Trump is such a chaos agent that there are not one but three ways he could start a civil war.

If he got indicted, I could totally see him go transactional and demand Red states begin the process of leaving the Union. Texas’ autocratic state government already talks like it has one foot out the door as it is. Just by calling up a Secessionist Convention, Texas would spook the Federal government to the point that they would ultimately shy away from doing anything with Trump criminally.

Meanwhile, there remains the lingering possibility that Trump will demand to be the Speaker of the House should Republicans take Congress in the fall. Even though I’m notorious for overestimating Trump’s mental abilities, even with his political grunt tendencies, I could see him use the threat of Red States leaving the Union as a bludgeon against Blue Senators when the inevitable impeachment trials of Biden and Harris happen.

The third way Trump might personally start a Second American Civil War would be as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. Either he so brazenly steals the election that Blue States begin to leave the Union or his second term agenda is so radical that that, unto itself, is enough to push Blue states — starting with California — out of the Union.

So, no, I don’t think Trump will be held accountable in any way for stealing America’s top secrets. We’re careening towards a very, very dark fate of either civil war or autocracy and this particular severe crisis will be just among the top five or so worst things Trump has done since 2015.

Good luck.

At The Moment, I’m At A Loss

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve just about entered the second half of fleshing out this first novel’s outline and I’m at a loss as to what to do. I need to convey to the reader that there is rising tension and danger for the protagonist — the bad guys closing in, as they say.

But I totally don’t know what to do, at least at the moment. I know in general terms what I need and what I want, but I’m going to have to radically re-imagine what is going on in some way. I think my best bet is to detract myself. Whenever I find myself in such a situation, I’m able to figure out what I need by doing something else than development.

I’m going to give myself about a day, I think, to do this. In the past, this has been about the time when I have gone on a little Writer’s Retreat to daydream. But I just don’t have the opportunity to do that right now. So, I think I might do a lot of reading (for once) and try to think of ways to put my heroine in danger and to build up to the end of the third act when we have our “all is lost” moment.

The first half of the novel is really, really good. I’m very pleased. I will note, however, that I’m very frustrated with how long this process is taking. I’m not getting any younger and I want to write six novels in this universe. I think, maybe if I stop focusing on that element of all of this and just try to make the first novel as strong a story as possible that things will be easier to figure out.

But, who knows.

‘Enough, Is Enough’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t think the recent revelations regarding Trump and secret documents at Mar-a-Lago will break the MAGA fever dream. Two things are at work. One is, MAGA is a fascist movement that is the result of a number of deep seated, structural problem with the United States. There’s just no way to abate the rise of white Christian rage. That’s why we face — most likely in 2024 – 2025 — the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

We may all be antifa soon enough.

Meanwhile, there is the issue of Trump himself. We’ve reached the point where virtually everyone in American politics is doing some wish-casting in regards to Trump potentially not running for office in 2024. Everyone from Ron DeSantis, who is salivating over the prospect of being America’s first autocrat to your rabid Leftist simply would prefer Trump to retire and stop being the political monster that he is.

But he’s just not going anywhere. If he’s indicted, then he announces his 2024 run earlier than he might otherwise. And if he’s not indicted, then he runs because he is above the law and he has a very radical National Socialist-like agenda to enact in his second term.

And one thing I would like to point out — we can’t mistake the Federal government finally getting fed up and raiding Mar-a-Lago for any indication that their going to do anything else. It could be that given the political implications of indicting someone like Trump they will choke and simply hope for the best.

I say this because there a very real chance that Trump could go transitional if he is indicted. Even though Trump is a lazy idiot and I wonder if he has enough abstract thought abilities to handle destroying the United States, maybe being indicted will focus his mind. My fear is that Trump will begin to rant that Red states need to leave the Union so he can live his life in peace. States like Texas would definitely take him up on such a suggestion because it’s a state with a very autocratic government.

The Federal government knows all of this and so I think in the end that Trump is going to escape — again. This is going to be just thing about Trump baked into the cake and that’s it. This will set up the 2024 battle royale between MAGA fascism and a bunch of still-clueless liberals. Which way things go — autocracy or civil war — I still can’t game out.

I do know, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee we are in deep, deep trouble. The prospect of civil war, with Blues leaving the Union increases significantly. DeSantis is enough of a “normal” politician that he could hoodwink the people necessary to become POTUS and gradually strangle democracy.

Who knows. We’ll find out, I guess.

Biden Needs To Call MAGA Straight Up Old Fascists, Not ‘Semi’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The case can be made that if Biden frames the 2022 elections in as start as terms as possible — fascism versus democracy — that we might see an unexpected upset in November. I have extremely low expectations at the moment. And I’ve already begun to game out how dark the period between January 2023 and January 2025 will be in the United States.

We all may be anti-fascist soon enough.

But if we can somehow hold the line against the rising tide of MAGA tyranny, then we will definitely be in a little bit of a better position going into the massive clusterfuck that will be the 2024 election cycle. I can not impress upon you enough how potentially dramatic and violent the 2024 presidential cycle might be. I just don’t see it being a free and fair election because the entire point of the Republican Party at this point is to steal the 2024 election. That’s all they want. All they want is to establish an autocracy in the United States. And all they have to do is gain power once — once! — and that’s it.

The key issue to remember is we can’t punt the existential crisis America faces down the road anymore. Everything is coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. By definition, if a Republican wins in 2024, we’re going to go down the path of autocracy. If we’re lucky, we settle somewhere around Hungary or Turkey. If we’re not so lucky, we endup somewhere between Russia and Nazi Germany.

Things are really that dire.

Barring a Unity Ticket for 2024, however, I do think that if Biden begins to articulate why the MAGA New Right is old school fascism, that that will really help to clarify in the minds of voters an general unease they probably are feeling already about the extremism of the Republican MAGA New Right.

Things are so volatile when it comes to the Republican Party, even if Democrats were able to miraculously win the 2024 election fair and square Republicans probably would either steal the election or grow extremely violent. What happen on January 6th would pale in comparison to the amount of violence we will see if Republicans lose — or aren’t able to successfully steal the 2024 eletion.

Those motherfuckers really are out for blood, I’m afraid.