AOC 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

AOC is something of a liberal-progressive firebrand, and, as such, extremely divisive. She’s divisive to the point that the case could be made that given how young she is, she should sit 2024 out to give herself time to mature and to earn the right to run for such a high office as POTUS.

AOC

She’s so young that she has plenty of time to become a New York Senator and then position herself to run for higher office.

But there’s a problem — a huge problem.

Macro forces are at work such that 2024 could be a battle royale. It could be a political pitched battle between the autocratic fascism of the Republican Party and an alliance of pro-democratic forces that find themselves under the rubric of the Democratic Party. And, sadly, Joe Biden is so old and eager to work with his good, good friends in the Republican Party who now happen to be fascist, that he’s just not up to the task at hand.

It would be much better, given the stakes of the 2024 election, to have a young, progressive firebrand like AOC as the leader of the Democratic Party as the United States careens towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. She would be just the fresh blood needed in case things went really south and we found ourselves with a REAL Stop The Steal effort in late 2024 – early 2025.

And, in all honesty, given how radical the Republican Party is now, having a fighter who appeals to the base of the Democratic Party is probably a lot more useful in 2024 than someone who might appeal to those mysterious 100,000 people across five swing states that decide each modern election.

I don’t agree with AOC on everything — I’m a moderate, if radical moderate, but I admire her spunk and her youthful frame of mind.

As such, for the time being, at least, I think AOC is the best candidate for the Democratic Party in 2024.

A Conundrum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I occurred to me today that I face something of a conundrum with this massive, sprawling planned six novel project. The first three novels, while interesting, don’t really have the same vibe as Stieg Larsson’s work. They’re definitely worth reading — or will be — but the entire tone of the first three novels are different because they don’t really have the sexxy razmataz of a Lisbeth Salender-type character.

The hero of the first three novels is a middle aged woman who just wants to protect an infant from evil forces.

And, yet, even though this is the case, I, personally want to see these stories told and, as such, I’m willing to put the work into doing just that. And now that I have that at the forefront of my mind, I can work extra hard to make these first three novels as action packed and interesting as possible.

Also, just by writing these first three novels, I have the opportunity to improve my writing and storytelling ability to so when I do get to the second three set of novels, I will be able to write something as interesting and fast paced as Larsson’s stuff.

At least, that’s what I’m going to tell myself.

I just really like the idea of laying out how my eventual heroine got to be the way she was. I have six sold stories to write and it fits my personality of shooting for the moon, thinking I might fall into the stars. And it also forces me to be more creative than I might otherwise have to be.

I have to figure out a way to make three interesting stories REALLY interesting so people will become fans of the series enough to want to find out what happens in the second three books.

I suppose if I’m totally unsuccessful with the first novel I might skip to the first book in the second trilogy for no other reason than pure desperation. But, as I keep saying, I have no one to tell me “no” so I can do whatever the fuck I want until I, personally, change my mind on this particular situation.

Autocracy Is Popular in The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From talking to my Traditionalist relatives, I’m alarmed at how popular the prospect of white autocratic rule in the United States is. Now, obviously if you ask them if they want a fascist state, they’re going to tell you’re being hysterical and that’s not at all what they want. But, then, they make it clear that they think democracy is “mob rule” and they are willing to vote for anyone who will end the tyranny of the “woke cancel culture mob.”

So, yeah, they want autocracy.

Now, while this is bad, the key issue is if we become an autocracy there is the problem of ME refusing to shut the fuck up, no matter what. I just don’t have it in me to be quiet once we fully transition into autocracy. I’ve been a loudmouth crank my entire life — often a drunk, loudmouth crank — and I’ve had the luxury of living in a Western democracy my entire life.

As such, I have to accept that there’s a real chance that should we become an autocracy I’m going to cross our new autocratic overlord and either find myself in an ICE camp, have to join some sort of real-world Resistance group or have to figure out a way to get out of the country.

I still don’t think we’re prepared for the reaction on the MAGA Right when all those liberals they hate so much actually do, in fact, leave the country en mass. Initially, they won’t know what to do with this turn of events. In fact, they’ll probably be pretty smug about it. And, then, when it starts to be a real brain drain — with a million or more well educated, well trained liberals leave the country — they’re going to freak the fuck out.

Some members of the Far Right will even go so far as to demand that it grow more difficult for people to leave the country. Form follows function, after all.

It will be interesting to see which direction we ultimately go. It seems, as least, to be growing apparent that we’re going to just become a Turkey or Hungary-style autocracy and that will be that. We’ll leave NATO (or be among the least democracy of the alliance). Given the America First nature of MAGA, America becoming Fortress America could spark a “Great Reset” of the world order because the United States is going go all Doctor Manhattan on us.

But their remains the possibility of a civil war. It’s not very high, but it exists and the crux of it happening would be if Trump or DeSantis is the 2024 Republican nominee. Trump is so stupid and lazy that he could, single handedly, spark a civil war by pushing Blue States into a corner. Meanwhile, DeSantis is far smoother and could pull off a peaceful transition into autocracy without a shot being fired.

Speaking of DeSantis, it is very interesting how my Traditionalist relatives address the difference between DeSantis and Trump. They say Trump “won because of all the press coverage of him” and, yet, they say, “DeSantis will win despite the press hating him.”

Which the fuck is it? Is the “liberal globalist cuck” Press all powerful, or is it not? I find this particular contradiction extremely aggravating. Get your story straight.

Anyway. Good luck, I guess. If you can the means to get out of the country, go for it. I may be up to poor people like me to fight the autocracy when it comes.

Counter-Factual: What If Trump Had Gone To the Capitol On January 6th?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After Cassidy Hutchinson’s shocking testimony that Trump was only barely prevented from going to the Capitol on January 6th, it raises the question: what would have happened had he gone?

The key thing about such a clusterfuck happening is it would have dramatically escalated what was already a bad situation into a historic tragedy. There is a real chance that the presence of the sitting president at the front of a crazed, armed angry mob would, at a minimum, delayed the Certification of the vote for at least 24 hours.

Which, in a sense, would have been the whole point of him going to the Capitol in the first place: delay the process as much as possible to give Mike Pence as much time as possible to to contemplate what he was going to do when the time came. So, the case could be made that if there had been bloodshed because Trump went to the Capitol and that, by definition, delayed the Certification of the vote then there’s a chance Mike Pence would not have done his job.

So, there is a real risk that Trump’s coup attempt would have worked for no other reason than there would be such chaos that it would provide cover for it to work.

July 4th, 2032: Life In Post-National Divorce America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely feels like we’re in the montage leading up to the United States either turning into a full-blown autocracy or…having a “National Divorce,” and, as such a civil war. To me, it’s clear that should there be a National Divorce, it will be Blue, not Red, states that serve the papers. Reds are ascendant and they’re getting everything they could possibly want through a combination of politics and a corrupt SCOTUS.

But, let’s suppose a civil war happens and Blues are successful in their war aims of leaving the Union and establishing an independent Blue United States. What would this strange new world look like?

The key thing to ponder is — which side got which states? There are a number of states that have a real difference between the governed and the government. The upper old midwest, “the Rust Belt,” is a prime example of this .There are a number of states there that would probably be flash points for a civil war. I mean, Michigan almost had a coup in 2020 and we were no where near to a civil war like we may be in 2024. And that doesn’t begin to address places like Texas which are politically shifting Blue in a macro way but are being held back by the autocratic politics of the Texas Republican Party. And, what’s more, states like Virginia are two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who hate each other and would probably be the site of significant bloodshed if a National Divorce happend.

But, let’s imagine a time 10 years from now when all that is sorted out. After a violent collapse of the country, we have two nations where the United States once stood — the rump state of Trumplandia (USA) and some sort of Blue State, maybe the United States of Canada? What would life be like there?

On paper, the United States of Canada in 2032 would be a prosperous, forward looking nation. It would be a part of NATO and would be a part of whatever New World Order was established after the entire world went tits up during WW3 that happend as a result of the Second American Civil War. The USC Constitution would likely be much like Trumplandia’s but for things like the ERA being in it as well as the abolition of the Electoral College. There might be something akin to National Service. Abortion rights would be protected. Plutocrats would be expected to pay their fair share and there might have been an overall reform of the tax system. In fact, a whole host of much-needed reforms would likely have been enacted in the USC — including a rewriting or elimination of the 2nd Amendment.

I could see on July 4th, 2032 that one of the biggest issues facing the USC would be immigration — from Trumplandia. Or, even worse, the could be a lot of concern about the fate of African Americans in the Deep South as Trumplandia grows more racist and radical on the issue of race. It could get so bad, in fact, that either there’s something akin to a race war in the Deep South that would cause the conflict between the USC and the USA to linger, or millions of African Americans would be forced to emigrate to the USC.

One interesting thing is where all the useless Twitter liberals would be. Would they be still be smug in their big cities or when they left the country to its own devices during the National Divorce, did they say in the south of France to drink white Russians and smell their own farts? I think by 2032 they would have returned, still as useless as ever.

Once the USC got rid of the Electoral College, the Democratic Party would devolve into its component parts and there might even be an actual Social Democrat Party that was a serious contender. It’s possible that there might also be a Green Party that would force the other main parties to take global climate change even more seriously than they already were.

Meanwhile, in Trumplandia, things would be getting very dark indeed. Without any counterweight from Blue States, the USA would become very inward looking and the worse tendencies of MAGA would become enshrined in law. In fact, as I mentioned, things would suck so bad that Trumplandia’s large African American population might revolt on a regular basis, leading to renewed conflict between Blue and Red. I don’t think we give this element of the clusterfuck that would be a National Divorce enough thought.

Trumplandia would align with other autocracies like Russia, Turkey and Hungary. As I mentioned — any world where the United States has been split into two would be dramatically different because the transition would be very violent and very disruptive. A few billion people could have died in WW3 because of starvation caused by a few regional wars going nuclear.

And, of course, there is a real chance that WMD would have been used by both Blue and Red as part of any National Divorce and, as such, both the USC and the USA in 2032 would be recovering from that massive destruction.

Because of the issue of race, specifically in the Deep South, I fear any National Divorce would not be nearly as clean cut as either side would prefer. In fact, it’s even possible that during any Second American Civil War, Blue war aims could drift from simple independence to reuniting the country into something closer to the United States of North America.

It would be horrific. Millions would die. If it became an apocalyptic rock fight to the end between Blue and Red to see who got the USA “brand” then all bets are off. It could be that the United States could go from the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world to something closer to modern day Afghanistan. It could take generations for the USNA to fully recover from such a colossal clusterfuck.

But one thing is for sure — in 2032 we either celebrate as Red and Blue, or we celebrate as an autocratic MAGA Trumplandia over the entire country. There is no middle ground. Something’s gotta give. Get ready. Pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you.

Tik-Tok Did It AGAIN

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now, this particular instance of Tik-Tok potentially…uh…reading my mind, is not nearly as clear cut as some others. But it’s still a very spooky co-incidence, regardless.

So, for some time now, I’ve been thinking about a weird incident that happened to me while I was working as an extra on the set of the movie Lincoln that shot in Richmond a few years ago. What happen was, my zipper broke in my costume and someone had to get way too personal with my junk to zip my zipper up. It was all very embarrassing because neither one of us wanted it to happen, but, lulz, it did.

I’ve been thinking hard about this incident the last few weeks for no particular reason other than I’m getting older and the past tends to linger in your mind more than it should.

Well, today I was flipping through Tik-Tok when what did I see but a video about — you guessed it — a person not only having a zipper stuck….but someone else helping them attempt to get it zipped up.

It’s all very random and weird. It’s extremely spooky, if nothing else.

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Is A Good Summer Movie

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was impressed with how good Top Gun: Maverick was. I did find myself rolling my eyes a few times and I found much of the third act extremely contrived to pander to the audience, but, overall it was solid summertime entertainment that deserves its $1 billion global haul.

But one thing that was noticeable about the movie was the thing that was missing — there was no bang-it-over-your-head-woke message that was so ponderous as to be distracting. It was a good summer blockbuster and didn’t have any ulterior political objective. It wanted to tell you a tentpole movie tale (to the point that there was no T&A) and it definitely succeeded.

Blue and Red could watch the movie without either feeling vindicated or attacked, depending on your point of view. Of course, as has been noted elsewhere, the universe is oddly vague about what is going on — it comes across as nothing more than a scenario, not something that might happen in the real world. I’m assuming this is the case because of global box office considerations.

And, if you really wanted to get nit-picky about it, you could say that there WAS some latent wokeness in the movie because the obvious choice of Iran being the bad guy was avoided by simply not telling us who was being attacked. But that is a real over-thinking-things quibble.

I will say that if The Academy was smart — which it isn’t — they would shower this movie with nominations. It’s just the type of four quadrant movie that would probably get people back to watching The Oscars again. But, even though I love movies and The Academy, they’re probably going to pick woke, boring movies that turn off 60% of the audience for various reasons.

Another thing — Tom Cruise has a thing acting against brunettes. It would make a lot of sense if Phoebe Waller-Bridge didn’t pop up as a love interest for Tom Cruise in some Mission: Impossible movie at some point in the not too distant future.

Top Gun: Maverick doesn’t come across as anti-woke so much as non-woke. It’s just the type of summer blockbuster I remember seeing as a young man in the 80s. There was no particular political agenda, they just wanted to entertain the audience with a simple, understandable plot that lets people escape for a few hours. It really shouldn’t be that hard.

But the issue is — both the far Left and the far Right hate the idea of the “center” for different reasons. The far left sees the “center” as some sort of nefarious snakepit of the CIS white male patriarchy, while the far Right wants us all to watch entertainment better suited for the 1950s.

Anyway, go see Top Gun: Maverick. It really is as good as the buzz.

Yet Another Delay

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Every once in a while, this novel writing project would collapse in on itself, requiring me to scramble to put the pieces back together. It has happened yet again, this time causing me to effectively to not only slice 50,000 words off of it, but to be forced to think up a whole new second and third act out of whole cloth.

As such, I fear that it won’t be the spring 2023 querying season I’ll be doing, but, rather the fall 2023 season. This sucks so much. But it had to be done. I found myself working on a scene in the first act and I realized that I was forcing readers to wait way too long to get to “the good stuff.” I know why this happened — I was using the structure of The Girl Who Played With Fire as a crutch, telling the story the way Stieg Larsson told that story, not the way that best fit with the story I was trying to tell.

So, I’ve reverted to a much more traditional structure, one that gets to the point and gets the story going far sooner. In a sense, this new structure is closer to what we find in Gone Girl, than The Girl Who Played With Fire. But, as I said, I have to find an entirely new second and third act. I’ve pretty much found the first half of the second act, but at the moment, I’m still struggling with the second half of the novel.

One key issue is I’m a little nervous that the story, while interesting, isn’t dark enough or sexxy enough for the intended audience. I have a few ideas as to how to raise the stakes — including throwing in a bit of speculative fiction — but I am still a little nervous that the overall story is a little too meh to catch anyone’s attention.

But, with that in mind, I may — finally — force myself to do all that reading I need to do. Even without the reading, I’m beginning to better understand storytelling basics like character development and motivation, goals and cause and effect. The learning curve has been severe the last few years, but I definitely know how *I* develop and write a novel length tale.

I find myself mulling a few scifi concepts as all of this is going on, out of frustration if nothing else. But, for the time being, I know this thriller universe so well that I just don’t feel like pulling too much energy away from it to flesh out a new fictional universe or two.

So, here I am. Back to something akin to square one with this whole project. But I’m feeling a lot better about what the end result will look like.

National Divorce: The Rump USA of Trumplandia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For some time now, it’s been a talking point of the Far Right that they want a “National Divorce.” This is, of course, completely bonkers given that the Red movement is ascendant. What they can’t get through the courts, they will get politically eventually via how elderly and weak willed the Blue leadership is.

So, logically, should it happened, it will be Blue States who serve the papers of any National Divorce. And if there was a National Divorce, it would cause a civil war that would be extremely destructive for both sides. But let’s suppose that Blue States leave the Union and Red States — after a spasm of panic trying to keep them in the Union.

What would this new, rump USA (Trumplandia) look like?

Well, the key thing I think for us to realize is how many people with center-Left leanings provide that Trumplandia economy with critical education, talent, training and knowledge. Millions of Blue Americans in Trumplandia will flee to Blue States should there be any National Divorce.

In short, the Trumplandia economy would — at least initially — implode if there really was a National Divorce. And, what’s more, there is the issue of race. The natural inclination of Trumplandia would be to disenfranchise African Americans to the point that they would face the choice of either fleeing to Blue States or revolting. This would lead to a severe amount of instability in Trumplandia, especially in the Deep South, to the point that that, in itself, might be a flashpoint between the newly independent Blues and Trumplandia.

So, a National Divorce between Blues and Reds — even if initially successful — could simply be the prelude to an even bigger clusterfuck. So, again, anyone — Blue or Red — who wants to National Divorce should think long and hard before they support it.

National Divorce: Imagining An Independent Blue America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, in the abstract, there is almost no downside to Blue States seceding from the Union. This is because Blue States for all the legitimate griping about the “woke cancel culture mob” dominating Blue States, the economies of the Blue States are bigger, more modern and more prepared for the global challenges of the 21st century.

But that’s in the abstract.

There are a lot — a lot — of complications to any National Divorce. The chief among them being — which state is a Blue State? Which state is a Red State. There a number of states that either swing Blue to Red every so often or are, as states like Virginia are, actually two different states fused together who hate each other.

So, any National Divorce would be very messy, complicated and destructive. There would be coups and counter-coups across the United States at the state level. And states like Texas which are, long-term, shifting Blue but are being held back by an autocrat Republican state government, would likely turn into a Yugoslavia-sized internecine bloodbath.

And, as I’ve written repeatedly before, there is the issue of the U.S. Military and the potential use of WMD by both sides. So, once the dust settled and Blue and Red were finally rid of each other, the two new nations could very well be in rubble that would take a generation or more to recover from.

But the issue remains — the ideological underpinnings for the successful secession of Blue States now exists. There would probably be an unpreceded amount of people who would flee to one new nation or the other during the process of divorce and, of course, there is always the risk that the two sides would hate each other so much that there would always be a risk that a war between the two would flare up now and again.

And, of course, there is also the very real risk that for all their talk about wanting a National Divorce that Red America will dramatically reverse their thoughts on the matter and do everything in their power to crush Blue States on the field of battle so all of America is Trumplandia.

In short, a National Divorce would suck. It would be horrible. It would not only destroy America in the short term, it would also be something akin to a “Great Reset” in the sense that World War 3 would happen across the globe at the same time.

I don’t want a National Divorce, but if it happens, it will be Blue States who serve the papers and the ones who will, in the long term, be better off for it if they succeed.