by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Talk about dumb and clueless. Everyone is so fixated on how fascist MAGA is, they keep making some basic assumptions about our future which simply are not true. The MAGA New Right is politically ascendant and are gradually getting everything they want through the courts, if not politics. They have absolutely no reason to start a civil war.
You start a civil war when you feel disenfranchised and turn to violence because you don’t feel you have any other way to effect change. While Republicans feel disenfranchised, that has more to do with bent up rage over the browning of America than what’s happening practically on the ground.
MAGA is doing the hard work of corrupting the administration of elections to the point that telling people within the center-Left to “vote harder” is even more meaningless than it would be otherwise. The time is well on its way when Republicans lock in national power for generations to come and Blue States either bend a knee, or they secede from the Union and start a civil war.
So, it won’t be Reds who start a civil war — they have no reason to. It will be Blues who finally grow so exasperated that they see no other option than to leave the Union en mass. Now, everything to date leads me to believe this isn’t going to happen.
What’s probably going to happen is there will be a final spasm in late 2024 – early 2025 and then we’re going to be an autocracy. Millions of wealthy, well educated and well trained liberals will flee the country for the four corners of the globe and Fox News will start to complain about a liberal brain drain instead of scary immigrant carvans.
That, for the moment, definitely seems to be our fate. In fact, the only way I could possibly see MAGA starting a civil war is if history intervened (probably because of a 9/11 sized tragedy) and they felt their gradual ascendancy was being stymied for some reason.
Or, of course, Trump could go transactional at some point after Republicans gain control of Congress again and he could demand that Red states threaten to leave the Union if the Senate doesn’t successfully convict both Biden and Harris during their inevitable impeachment trials.
We are in for a very bumpy ride between now and Certification Day 2025, but nothing the center-Left has done of late would indicate to me they have the gumption to leave the Union. So, we’re doomed. We’re totally fucking doomed. I suppose your best bet is to leave the country sooner rather than later with all the Twitter liberals.
