Unwanted Hugs lyrics by @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
the break up was a year ago we’re no longer a thing in the end it was all a game but what can I say I still look forward to seeing you and the unwanted hugs unwanted hugs unwanted hugs
if it wasn’t for unwanted hugs what would we have if it was’t for unwanted hugs our relationship would be dead
here come close close enough to smell I need one of those unwanted hugs unwanted hugs unwanted hugs
people claim we made a cute couple maybe we did I don’t know but all I know is how you feel when I go in for one of those unwanted hugs unwanted hugs unwanted hugs
if it wasn’t for unwanted hugs what would we have if it was’t for unwanted hugs our relationship would be dead
here come close close enough to smell I need one of those unwanted hugs unwanted hugs unwanted hugs
(bridge) when the hugs were wanted and things were going well things were just so swell but that was a long, long time ago now all I’ve got are
I hate violence. I hate conflict. This is just me wondering out loud if one of my idle “terribly negative” daydreams have any basis in fact. You see, as I’ve written before, there are two places where a Second American Civil War could start. One is California (by simply leaving the Union) and the other is New York City.
Will New Yorkers Do It Again, This Time Against Trump?
As you may know, in the early days of the First American Civil War, New York City dallied with the notion of becoming a Free City as the United States was beginning to tear itself apart. Nothing came of it, but it is enough to make you wonder if something similar might be in the air should a Second American Civil War begin because we don’t know who the fuck POTUS is around late 2024, early 2025.
I’ve already mentioned the scenario I have in mind — at some point after Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025, it becomes clear that Steve K. Bannon’s “administrative coup” has worked and even though Trump would otherwise win fair and square, the whole process is so fucking corrupt that we can’t agree on who won the election.
As such, the passions of the day become so much that New Yorkers grow enraged and storm Trump Tower, Fox News, The New York Post and The Wall Street Journal. It would all be very dramatic and historic and would likely cause our incoming ding-dong tyrant Trump to do something complete insane that would cause a number of Blue States to bounce out of the Union in unison.
And, yet, is this really possible?
I don’t think so. I just can’t imagine it would be spontaneous. You would need some sort of leadership and even in New York City — as far as I can tell — there really isn’t much leadership in the anti-MAGA movement.
For the time being, I think my prediction that we’ll just slip peacefully into autocracy is the right one. American democracy is in its twilight and, really, there is so much slack available to the forces of tyranny in the United States that we will all wake up in twenty years and wonder why a huge statue to Trump is being constructed on the Washington Mall.
It definitely seems as though gradually after 2025 the United States is going to become a fascist autocracy and that will be that. Things won’t change all that much at first, but soon enough, just like with the end of Animal Farm, we’ll look back and forth between ourselves and Russia and realize we’re the same animal.
Jesus Christ is Trump an idiot. And, what’s more, he is simply an avatar for white Christians who feel threatened by their coming minority status. If Trump was a “Great Man” we would already be something akin to a Nazi state.
I say this because the people who voted for Trump in 2016 wanted an autocrat. They wanted what I feared. Their dream was my nightmare. Trump had four years to destroy American democracy, but he was so lazy and stupid and spent so much of his time bemoaning the non-existent “deep state” that when the time came, he simply didn’t have it in him to seize control.
And, so, we are in something of a twilight era at the moment. We’re an anocracy. We’re not quite a democracy and not quite an autocracy. We’re in between. According to Barbara F. Walter’s book “How Civil War’s Start” it’s when a nation is an anocracy that they are most at risk of having a…gulp…civil war.
Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. It’s very possible that something will happen and Trump won’t be the 2024 Republican nominee. If that’s the case, then, lulz, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. But it definitely seems as though Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024. And if that happens, then, by definition, the risk of a massive political clusterfuck in the United States grow exponentially.
Trump is notorious for saying the “quiet part out loud” and if he runs and wins in 2024, I could totally see him ranting at length about all kinds of crazy shit that would enrage Blue States to the point that they begin to leave the Union. He could get into his orange ding-dong noggin the idea that there ABSOLTUELY HAS to be a Constitutional Convention in his second term to “pass a balanced budget amendment.”
I don’t know what to tell you. To think, the entire fate of 330 million Americans rests on total fucking idiot like Donald Trump. It’s all very sad. In general, however, I would suggest that things are going to get lit the moment SCOTUS actually does, in fact, overturn Roe.
After several years of struggle, I’m finally — finally — about to enter the third act of the first draft of my first novel. One interesting thing about this process has been how much my outline changes once I start to actually write scenes using it.
I compare it to the difference between using Google Maps and using Street View Google Maps. Once you plop yourself into the actual location first hand and walk around in the real world, everything changes. But, thankfully, it definitely seems as though I’m about to wrap up this first draft pretty soon.
If things go according to plan — and they still may not — I should wrap up the first draft of my this first novel by the end of May. Then I pause for a month, work on fleshing out the next two novels in the project (along with a “second track novel) and then throw myself into working on the second draft of the novel starting probably around July 4th weekend.
I already have a lot of ideas about how to make the second draft of this novel a lot — and I mean A LOT — better. I’m holding off reading and re-reading some how-to novel books because I don’t want to spook myself before I finish the first draft. Once I actually finish this first draft, everything, in a sense, will be thrown up in the air.
I’m going to deconstruct everything then throw it all back together in a way that is hopefully a lot better than the first draft.
I’m growing very frustrated with all the keyboard warriors who seem to think that getting really angry on Twitter is going to change anything. I definitely don’t want any violence, but something’s gotta give.
If we continue to waste our time on Twitter instead of preparing in the real world for our coming choice of autocracy or civil war, then, lulz, our choice has already been made for us — it’s autocracy. What’s even worse is at our time of greatest need, the people who would otherwise serve as the core of any real-world resistance to our coming MAGA themed fascist autocracy — Blue Check Liberals — are all going to decamp to the south of France.
I have very low expectations for the United States politically going forward. There may be some chaos here and there going forward, but as of this moment, it definitely seems as though we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy. And if it’s Ron DeSantis not Trump who is the GQP nominee in 2024, it’s extremely unlikely we’ll have a civil war.
DeSantis (or whomever, as long as it isn’t Trump) is so smooth in a traditional political sense that at first nothing will change until we wake up 20 years from now and they’re still in office. We’re extremely close to having a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention. Maybe three or four resolutions, I think? In fact, I would go so far as to say the big political debate of Trump’s second term, should there be one, will be the fact that the Constitutional Convention has gone rouge and now we’re going to be a full fascist state.
Anyway, lulz, nothing matters.
At the moment, it seems as though we just don’t have the gumption to address, in the real world, the rise of autocratic fascism in the United States. The center-Left is too divided, weak willed and misguided for there to be much fight when the time comes.
I don’t want violence and I don’t want a civil war. But a nation divided upon itself cannot stand. We’re going to go one way or another. Something huge is going to happen between now and 2025. It could be that we have something akin to a civil war, it could be that it becomes conventional wisdom that it is, on a Constitutional level, nearly impossible for a Democrat to become POTUS.
And once that happens, it’s over. All the extremely unpopular policy goals that Republicans have will gradually — or not so gradually — become law and by 2042, we’ll be no different politically than modern day Russia.
A lot can happen between now and January 2025. But I’m going to be flabbergasted if we just don’t slouch towards autocracy.
No matter what happens in the next few years, we are currently living through the “Before Times.” Something really big is going to happen not just in the United States but across the globe.
I say that because no matter what America decides to do, be it civil war or autocracy, there’s a good chance that the existing world order will be destroyed and something akin to WW3 might happen.
This would be a really slow Radiohead like song. Just screwing around.
Domestic Supply Of Infants lyrics by @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
baby you’re the one the one I adore will never let you flee you’re always going to be by my side doesn’t matter how it happens you’re going to see the truth
the birth dearth is over ain’t it the truth the birth dearth is over ain’t it the truth the sun will rise to a field of newborns growing on the tree
don’t believe in the storke the birds and the bees leave me cold but all I can say is in the end there will be infants domestic for us to love
the birth dearth is over ain’t it the truth the birth dearth is over ain’t it the truth the sun will rise to a field of newborns growing on the tree
(bridge) death is not an option only life birth will come for our delight doesn’t matter how it happens the growth of the population will happen just you wait and see
the birth dearth is over ain’t it the truth the birth dearth is over ain’t it the truth the sun will rise to a field of newborns growing on the tree
For once, everything seems to be going according to plan with a first draft. At the moment, it seems as though I have a pretty good chance of finishing this first draft so I can pause for a month before turning around and re-write everything.
The story is structurally sound and I really do feel as though if you read this first novel in this five novel project that it will seem like an old brown shoe relative to Stieg Larsson’s Millennium Series. It’s something of a slow burn and the third act really takes things in an unexpected direction.
Because I have no one to tell me no, I’m going to throw myself into the second and third novels in this project during the month-long pause I plan on for (probably) all of June. (I really hope to finish the first draft of this first book by the end of May, but something could always happen to stop or delay that.)
But, for the time being, I’m hopeful.
I think there’s a decent chance that I won’t embarrass myself, if nothing else.
The emotional heart of these five novels is meant to be the bond between an AmerAsian Mare of Easttown-type woman and a Lisbeth Salander-type woman. The dynamic between the two of them over the course of a generation is what I hope will bring people back for all five novels.
If I had anyone to tell me no, what I would do is focus exclusively on this first novel in the project and try to use it as a calling hard for my career. But I’m stubborn and there’s no one in my life to tell me no, so, fuck it. Try to finish five novels it is.
And that doesn’t even include the ‘second tract” novel I have rolling around in my mind.
Though, to be fair, I do plan on using as much of my time as possible on the first book. I always thought my first novel would be scifi, but lulz, no. It’s something akin to a thriller. But I think that’s a designation I use simply to make marketing easier.
The first book is more a character driven novel about a woman’s relationship to her family and the people she loves in her life.
There are two flashpoints that I could see sparking any possible Second American Civil War — California and New York City. Let’s go through two scenarios.
California When it becomes clear that we’ve slipped into autocracy after the theft of the 2024 election the Bear State Republic holds a snap Secessionist Convention. Given that this would be illegal and there’s no real way for this to happen, this would, by definition, start a civil war of some sort. Probably there would be a “Phony War” at first while the MAGA Federal government tried to figure out what to do about the situation. If Trump is president under this scenario, then, lulz, he’ll probably use nukes because he’s stupid and deranged.
New York City With this scenario, the same type of thing happens, but instead of California leading the way, the population of New York City collectively freaks the fuck out and they storm the offices of places like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and FOX News. They also take Trump Tower in some way. This, in turn, would cause the deranged Trump to strike back in some severe manner which would cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union one right after the other.
A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other. — Abraham Lincoln
by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner
The above quote from Lincoln sums up my current view on the fate of the United States between now and January 2025. The difference between the two sides has grown so extreme that we’re either going to entirely MAGA or we have a civil war that leads to the destruction of one of the two sides and we’re unified that way.
Though, I have to note that it’s very unlikely that in this modern world that any Second American Civil War would have an ending as pat as the first. What’s more likely to happen if there is a 2ACW is a permanent division of the United States into, say, the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.
I say this because of what the war aims of the Blue States would be — simply to leave the Union and not have to worry about living under the MAGA jackboot. It would be MAGA that would want to control the entire territory of the United States. So, in a sense, the dynamic of the First American Civil War would be switched with the center-Left simply wanting to leave the Union while the center-Right wanting to keep the Union together.
But a lot would depend what type of leadership bubbled up to the surface as we progressed towards making our final decision of autocracy or civil war. I still think that the “radical moderates” of the #NeverTrumper movement will be the leadership of Blue States. I mean, Goddamn, is Liz Cheney the type of Margaret Thatcher type leader that Blue States would need should the shit hit the fan.
U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)
The Red States, meanwhile, have a shit ton of leaders to draw upon. I can think of a dozen really strong MAGA Republicans who could populate the leadership of the rump USA should there be a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. But one thing is clear — if you think there can be a peaceful National Divorce, you’re a fool or full of shit.
Any “national divorce” would, by definition, be extremely violent and involve weapons of mass destruction.
Anyway, the point is — things are very unstable in the United States right now. Things could go either way. We could simply shrug and become a Russian-style autocracy, or we could have a violent “national divorce” that will directly and indirectly lead to the death of millions.
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