by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The chief thing I think is wrong when it comes to how we weigh the idea of a Second American Civil War happening is a basic miscalculation about the relative strengths of the two sides at the onset of any such war.
In fact, it is that basic miscalculation, I think, that would probably cause the war to start in the first place. The Right (Reds), thinking the Left (Blues) are all a bunch of numale soyboys, will think they can win any such Second American Civil War quickly and decisively.
Meanwhile, in the real world, things are far more complicated.
The issue is — generally, no matter how much of a numale soyboy you may be, if things grow existential because a MAGA person wants to murder you in cold blood because of your political views, you’re going to stop worrying about your pronouns and start doing something to defend yourself.
So, as such, Red MAGA people are going into any such potential fight with a misjudgment of what they’re getting themselves into. But we have to be clear — if there is a civil war, it’s going to be nasty and blood and more people will die as a result of it than died in WW2.
I say this because WMD will be seized by both sides and used gratuitously during the course of any such war.
But hopefully it won’t happen. Hopefully.
I will note, however, that if somehow, miraculously Democrats keep Congress in the fall, the likelihood of a Civil War is just about the same as if they lost it — but the context will be dramatically different.
If they lose Congress, the there’s a good chance that Trump will become Speaker — if for a limited amount of time — and all we’ll do is watch impeachment trials of Biden and Harris for two years. If the Democrats keep Congress, meanwhile, the pressure for some sort of rolling “Troubles” type civil war will grow.
And remember, I still believe we’re going to have a civil war that’s based on the state level, just like the first civil war. The dynamic will be the same when it begins, at least — (Blue) States will leave the Union around 2024 – 2025 because the administration elections has become totally corrupt.
But 2024 – 2025 remain the moment in time we have to worry about. Things are going to get really, really messy around then.
