by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
We are in a very dangerous period in modern world history. Putin has put himself in something of a public relations box. Either he loses this war or he escalates. It’s my understanding that it’s standard Russian war doctrine to go down fighting — to escalate using WMD — if it appears clear that they’re going to lose.
I still don’t believe that, in real terms, Russia will face all that much in additional consequences if they decided to use low grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine. Hell, the Russians could use tactical nukes and I still don’t think anything would happen.
What is going to happen to them? NATO and the US don’t really have any desire to defend Ukraine directly as it is. They will have even less reason should nukes be used in some capacity. So, after the shock of the 75 year old taboo against the use of nukes being broken was passed, we would all move on.
Now, that doesn’t mean that there would not be consequences. It’s very possible that the Ukrainians would be even more enraged than they already are and the Russians would again have to either lose or escalate. But, even more importantly, the issue of how other nuclear powers would respond is something we would need to think about.
It seems as though the post-WW2 liberal order really would be over if the Russians attempted to nuke themselves out of a Ukrainian debacle. So, China might use nukes against Taiwan, the list goes on. Name a geopolitical hotspot where one or more of the potential combatants has nukes.
Anyway, we’ll see I guess.
