by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
History is a fickle mistress. Nowhere is this more obvious that than Russia. I’m just a nobody in the middle of nowhere — you probably shouldn’t listen to me — but I do have a hot take on Russia’s future.
It seems to me that Russia’s military in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse. If that happens, then there could be a significant cascading series of events that ultimately leads to Putin’s downfall.
Given Russia’s size and the number of nukes it has, this would throw the entire world order for a loop. There could be loose nukes. Limited nuclear exchanges, you name it. But there would also be a lot of opportunity. Russia has huge unlocked potential and if there was some macro creative destruction in Russia, there is a chance that the nation could transform itself form economic backwater to economic powerhouse within a generation.
I say this in the context of global climate change. But the process of this propose transformation would be very bloody and very painful for millions –if not billions — of people.
So, I don’t know. But it would be very ironic if there was a Second Russian Revolution just as the United States had a Second Civil War and we switch sides politically and economically. Russia liberating itself just as America turns into a theocratic, autocratic state would be rather surreal and ironic.
But it’s very much a real possibility, given macro trends in both nations as we lurch towards 2024 – 2025.
