by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The thing about any geopolitical issue is you just never know. It’s why any discussion — especially on Twitter — about this or that potential geopolitical hotspot should be left to the experts.
But, lulz, that’s never stopped me before. So, here’s my unfounded speculation about why the US is flying surveillance aircraft at night over Ukraine, which apparently is very rarely, if ever, seen.
REDEYE6 over Ukraine. Looked at southeast Belarus, now heading to look over the border into Russia. Local time 01:37. Again, for what it's worth, this type of aircraft has never been observed flying over Ukraine at this time of day pic.twitter.com/cmrhVtMgdq
— gandalf greybeard (@gerrydogma) February 4, 2022
So, what does it mean? Why are they doing it now? What has spooked them into doing something so unusual. I honestly have no idea. But I do think we may be in something akin to the “red zone” that will span between now and, say, March 1st.
A lot depends on what Putin and Xi said to each other over the last few days at the Olympics. It could be that Xi gave Putin a greenlight to attack ASAP, or it could be all of this means nothing and we just wait and see.
But I’m going to continue to keep an eye on all of this.
