by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Welp, this is the moment of truth. It could go either way and it’s up to Putin which way it goes. Which, of course, is exactly what he wants. It’s now after dark in Ukraine as best I can tell, so we just wait.
It could be that if Putin wants to start a war, it will be tomorrow night so it would be Dec. 24th in the US. Or it could be that the actual war would start on Dec 24 Russia time and, as such, the war would start tonight. The prep for the war could begin at literally any moment.
Probably what would happen is a massive cyber attack, combined with those paratroopers landing in Ukraine and then, maybe, a massive artillery barrage to soften up the front line so when the tanks roll in, they can go farther.
And, really, the issue at that point would be how well the Ukrainians stood up to the attack. If they do well, it’s a smash and grab operation. If they do poorly, then it becomes a general war and there’s a mad rush on Kiev by Russian and Belarusian forces.
But, like I’ve said — I’m always, always wrong. So, it could be we just have a tense few days and then…we just go back to normal. It could be that all of this was just a very expensive flex by the 70-year-old Putin.
Only time will tell.
