The idea of any major war between Russia and Ukraine is very, very stupid for Russia. They would be able to take the land, but they wouldn’t be able to keep it long-term.
That’s why I’ve proposed that any war that Russia began against Ukraine this winter would be very limited and tactical in nature. If I was going to make any predictions about the prospective Russo-Ukrainian Winter War of 2021 – 2022, I would suggest the biggest battle would be the one associated with Mariupol. It’s the biggest Ukrainian city between Donbass in the east and Crimea in the southwest.
So, in my opinion, once Putin secured Mariupol, he would re-evaluate his options. If he were to strike from both Crimea and Donbass and take Mariupol from both directions, I think he would stop altogether. Then, about five years from now, he would begin to move troops towards Odessa. That would be his next target.
The reason why he would do the above plan instead of a far broader attack, he knows that if he took “Kyiv in two weeks” as he has boasted before, that he would be sowing the seeds of his own defeat long term. The rump state of Ukraine would be thrown into chaos and it’s very possible that a far, far right fascist state would be established based on irredentism.
Irredentism is, in short, the political movement of “give us back our land.” As such, if Russians took Kyiv, they would be setting up a very 1980s Afghanistan but in Europe with a far biggest population situation. Everyone from the French to the Swedes would throw military supplies and “advisors” at the Ukraine as the new front line began to take shape.
There’s just no reason that I can think of that Putin would throw his forces into a major regional war against Ukraine when he knows as well as anyone that he would likely significantly destabilize his own country to the point of revolution.
The only thing that might save Putin’s ass in this situation is if China also attacked Taiwan this winter in a big way. Then you would, in effect, have WW3 and a whole different dynamic at play.
As such, I think maps like the below are just FUD on the Russians’ part.
I still don’t even know if it’s all that likely there’s going to be any war between Russia and Ukraine this winter. But is something to contemplate.
In my mind, this would be very much a Prince-type song. Maybe Janelle Monae would sing it? But it would be a fusion song. Something sultry and R&B, but with a bit of rock edge to it.
Land Without Bears lyrics by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
it’s cold in our bed cold as the poles it’s a land without bears the moment you flip back the sheets I feel the need to strip
land without bears it’s as chilly as can be land without bears land without bears land without bears things are about to change though when you’re with me
I can feel the heat where it counts things are getting damp from the melt I’m getting slippery just watch your step wouldn’t want you to fall to the floor unles you’re there to roar
land without bears it’s as chilly as can be land without bears land without bears land without bears things are about to change though when you’re with me
(bridge) we give each other a bear hug until we can’t bear it anymore things are hot as can be we’re free of the ice from before take a dip in the sea that is our love, baby
land without bears it’s as chilly as can be land without bears land without bears land without bears things are about to change though when you’re with me
This is my lyrical homage to Katy Perry’s musical oeuvre of songs that just barely are not novelty songs. But, really, this is just meant to be a fun pop song that any mainstream female vocalist could sing. It’s mean to be a fun little song about a really hot woman who is dating a Pete Davidson doofus like guy with a amusing name. Fergal (I Love You) lyrics by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
I know the big bad boys make fun of your big old noggin say you’re the red headed step child but when you hold me tight I feel like I’m living in the sea living in the sea living in the sea (if you know what I mean)
cause no matter what when I’m feeling in a rut all I have to do is take your hand as we make our way to bed with one thing on my mind Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You)
just ’cause you’re not as rough or as tough as the boys on TV doesn’t mean you don’t make me burst the seams of my dress with the heavy breathing that can only come when you and I go running in the dark not knowing where it’ll all end
cause no matter what when I’m feeling in a rut all I have to do is take your hand as we make our way to bed with one thing on my mind Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You)
(bridge) know you think I’m too good for you but whenever we kiss I feel inscure afraid I’ll awake on morning and you’re gone then I open my eyes to see you lying next to me and it was all a bad dream cause you know no matter what Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You)
Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You) Fergal (I Love You)
I find myself using way too much brain power these days when it comes to the issue of the day, “Are we living in a modern antebellum era?” It is self evident to me that Something Bad is going to happen between now and January 2025. The reason I think this is, on a political basis, the United States is running on fumes.
We’re just too divided and what it means to be an American is too different in the minds of Blue and Red. Having said that, there is still a very, very good chance that whatever Bad Thing happens to the United States will be peaceful in nature.
In fact, at the moment, I’m on the opinion that the United States is going to slip peacefully into autocracy because, lulz, autocracy is popular with a huge swath of the electorate. The argument has been successfully made to White Traditionalists that because of The Great Replacement, that democracy is no longer a viable form of government and we need an autocrat to make sure scary POC and economically liberated women don’t threaten the traditional power structure that has white men on top.
Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:
It’s not in our nature to have a civil war. For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system. It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024 Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed. Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.
There really is no reason to think we’ll have a civil war. We’ll just wake up one day and realize the United States and Russia are, on a political basis, identical. Thousands (millions?) of center-Left people will have voted with their feet until the autocrat gets wise to this and makes it impossible for anyone to leave the country.
For the moment, I really think that’s what’s going to happen. There may be the occasional hick-up on the journey to autocracy, but that’s definitely where long-term American political trends are headed.
And, yet, it’s also possible that the combination of Trump being extremely stupid and lazy as well as the innate bloodthirstiness of the MAGA New Right might cause us to have a tragic, needless civil war where a hyperpower bombs itself into the Stone Age with its eyes wide open.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
Given how popular autocracy is the United States at the moment and how radicalized the Republican Party has become, it’s very possible that Trump can be as stupid and lazy as he likes and we’ll STILL slip peacefully into autocracy.
But I continue to struggle with which existential choice we’re going to pick in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. Civil war or autocracy?
I just don’t know. But SOMETHING is going to happen a “Fourth Turning” if you will, that is going to dramatically change everyday life in the Untied States. I just can’t figure out which of the two most obvious options is going to be.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
These lyrics seem to lend themselves to something Kacey Musgraves might sing about. One More Drink lyrics by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
here’s to one more drink where I let it sink in that this time you’re gone for good no more smiles before bed no more sighs rolling around my head instead of being by your side here I am, just drinking rye
one more drink to let it sink in one more drink before I head out into the night for a little bit of sin one more drink one more drink one more drink
once you were mine tight as can be what did I do to cause you to flee I guess it was the lying and the laying with others when I should I have been with you watching the sun rise
one more drink to let it sink in one more drink before I head out into the night for a little bit of sin one more drink one more drink one more drink
(bridge) I’m sober now at least I think I’m trying to ween myself from your love ’cause here’s the rub unless I get some help from heaven above it’s not coming back
one more drink to let it sink in one more drink before I head out into the night for a little bit of sin one more drink one more drink one more drink
Just letting off some steam. I still know nothing about music. So, this is just a lulz. Overtime lyrics by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
sometimes you gotta make do putting it all on the line gotta stay away from your lover to make enough to spread that butter but when you come from work we all know you’re going to make love rather than overtime
working overtime for your love working overtime to rock your pulse working overtime working overtime
they say the older you get the less you love but you and me know that’s wrong we got it going on between the two of the sun shines bright even in the middle of the night making love rather than overtime
working overtime for your love working overtime to rock your pulse working overtime working overtime
(bridge) when it’s dark and quiet we stop working and let our souls meet we reach for each other under the sheets working overtime, overtime, overtime for our love
making love rather than overtime making love rather than overtime m making love rather than overtime
working overtime for your love working overtime to rock your pulse working overtime working overtime
Say what you will about Trump, he definitely can come up with song titles. Broken Old Crow lyrics by Shelt Garner @sheltgarner please give credit if you produce or perform
can’t fly anymore my heart is almost still I’m nothing more than a broken old crow
I once could touch the sun but that’s long gone now I’m nothing more than a broken old crow
wish I could return to what once was to a time and place of my making when the sky was blue and there I roamed before the darkness fell and I was left broken and old
can’t fly anymore my heart is almost still I’m nothing more than a broken old crow
I once could touch the sun but that’s long gone now I’m nothing more than a broken old crow broken old crow borken old crow
(bridge) in my heart I’m whole young and free don’t you fret that’s who I am when all is said and done no one can catch me now
but then I awake and realize I’m nothing more than a broken old crow broken old crow broken old crow
As I keep saying, America is an autocracy without an autocrat. And, barring a massive self-own by the MAGA New Right, we’re probably going to drift peacefully into autocracy at some people between now and January 2025. We managed to escape autocracy in 2020 for a number of reasons, among them Trump was so lazy and stupid that he could not pull of the most basic of autocratic power moves in regards to stealing the election.
So, he panicked at the election and put all his chips on the Mike Pence not certifying the vote.
But we’re not going to be so lucky next time. And, honestly, in the end, autocracy is so popular that I just don’t see Trump and Bannon having to even cheat. The rot at the core of the American political system is so advanced, that when the time comes, traditionalists will make common cause with MAGA and it will just be convention wisdom that Republicans now are our minority rule overlords from here on out.
The key thing to keep an eye on is who will be Trump’s successor. About a dozen would-be autocrats know that all they have to do is be Trump’s hand picked successor and they will become America’s Putin. They will have more real power than any president in American history and they will become fabulously wealthy.
From the moment we have President Pompeo, or Hawley or whomever, we’re going to slowly at first, then with greater speed see the basic elements of autocracy begin to show up in the United States. When everyone knows there is no longer any political connection between the government and the governed in the United States, it’s only a matter of time before fascist form follows fascist function.
It may take 20 years, but soon enough, the media will be purged. The existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized. And a whole slew of very unpopular far Right policies will be implemented. There will be mass protests, but they will fade soon enough and center-Left people will begin to vote with their feet. Until, that is, the autocrat gets wise to this and makes it impossible for anyone to leave the country.
Now, of course, this is Trump we’re talking about. So it is at least POSSIBLE that he could massively self-own and push us into a tragic and needless civil war. The MAGA New Right has grow so bloodthirsty and so glamorized political violence that there’s a greater than zero sum chance that instead of slipping peacefully into autocracy, we have a civil war and bomb ourselves into the Stone Age from seized WMD.
So, as I keep saying — get a passport. Be prepared to take a stand in the real world for what you believe in. Good luck. You’re going to need it.
The thing that a lot of political observers miss in America these days is how ascendant the MAGA New Right is. They have all the momentum. As I saw someone say recently, one reason this is happening is the far Right radicals of the MAGA New Right rub the political clit of far more moderate conservatives by weaponizing the peril of “wokeness” as is needed.
So, in the culture wars, MAGA and traditionalists have made common cause. The interplay is this — MAGA / FOX News riles up the average traditional conservative by getting all bent out of shape about this or that latest “woke” outrage. This usually happens right before an election.
Republicans win, and MAGA moves on to the next bullshit thing they’ve thought up to be angry about.
Now, for me, the issue, is, there is an element of the center-Left that really is illiberal. That problem really does exist. I find this a lot in my thinking about the four thrillers I’m working on. On one hand, I’m supposed to have representation in the fiction I write, and yet, a the same time I have no right to write from the POV of anyone other than a CIS white male. How you square that particular circle, I don’t know.
And, yet, MAGA, which is entirely based on the desire to establish a white minority autocrat state, is not exactly coming at all of this in good faith.
The average person doesn’t even understand what it means to be “woke,” just as much as they don’t know what Critical Race Theory is or Cancel Culture. All they know is they’re afraid of being “canceled” by corporations that have taken the position of the other side of the culture wars from them. Throw in a general unease about the rise of women and minorities in the United States and you have a lot of people who don’t even realize how little they want to live in a democracy anymore.
So, as I keep saying, autocracy is very popular in the United States right now. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. MAGA has gone septic. There is no turning back. We’re fucked. Get a passport and be prepared to either leave the country or be attacked for what you believe in the real world.
If we’re lucky, when the “Fourth Turning” happens, all the silly bullshit of “wokeness” will simply burn off of our culture because people will have had something far more existential to think about than what they’re pronouns are.
But how we get to that point could be pretty scary. We could very well have a civil war and that will be that. Not only will we bomb ourselves into oblivion, but as we do so, the whole world will, too, because our military absence on the world stage will cause WW3.
There isn’t much we can do. These are macro trends we’re dealing with. We’ve passed the even horizon of either tyranny or civil war.
I have a pretty good system for management of the development of a big storytelling project established. It’s taken me about three years to get here, but I finally have a pretty good system.
One of the reasons why I find myself interested in screenwriting is it should be easy for me to retool that system from writing novels to writing screenplays. The hardest part at the moment will be learning Final Draft. The actual development of the story is far easier than that I know how *I* develop a longer-style story.
I already have a general idea of the plot of this screenplay and its themes tap into my general, lingering rage over MAGA that the same dynamic that was at work with the initial development of the four thrillers I’m working on should be in play with this screenplay.
But, as of the moment, all I have for sure down pat with the outline is the very beginning and the climax. Other than that, I’m at a loss right now.
And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of learning Final Draft. But I hope that I’ll be so excited with a finished outline that when I get to the point where I want to start writing on the screenplay, I’ll be able to use brut mental force to learn Final Draft.
At least, that’s the hope.
I have a huge amount going on creatively at the moment, which is what I want. The main focus has to be on the thrillers, though. It’s just, sometimes, I need to let of some steam doing something totally different that uses a slightly different part of my mind.
I’m still very interested in fashion photography, but getting the equipment has been far, far slower than I expected. So, for the moment, occasionally dabbling in screenwriting is it.
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