by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner
I am not an expert. You probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say. But I am pretty good at running scenarios, so let’s go through what would be a few “tipping points” on the issue of Omicron (or something similar) that would force us all to sit up and take notice.
- We Learn Vaccines Aren’t Working
Vaccines are our first line of defense. But I am hearing conflicting messages about Omicron. I’m hearing that it’s a lulz if you’ve been vaccinated. And I’m hearing it has significant breakthrough data. So, I don’t know. It seems we pretty safe for the time being on that front. - It Spreads A Lot Faster
This definitely seems to be something going on with Omicron. If your community is unvaccinated, it moves a lot faster within your community. - The Mortality Rate Is Far, Far Higher
In the end, I again use the metric I used with COVID19 when it first came out — how many people are dying or getting really sick? I thought it was going to be A LOT of people, when it turned out to be far less deadly than my initial belief. So, for me, at least, we would have to have the three strikes of blowing past vaccines, spreading a lot faster AND the death rate being a lot higher (even for the vaccinated) before I would grow too concerned.
For the time being, I’m taking a wait and see approach, as should you. Grab a towel. No need to panic.
