by Ender
People keep showing up at this site thinking about civil war and or revolution and I’ve decided to answer these searches each time I get one. So, let’s, again, address the probability of a Second American Civil War.
At the moment, the probability of a Second American Civil war is greater than zero. The question is not so much if one will happen, it’s if it is going to happen, when is it going to happen? For the time being, there are so many known unknowns that I can’t tell you one way or another if we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy or we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. There are too many issues to be settled first.
Of course, it is possible that something out of the blue could force the issue and the country buckles rather abruptly for no other reason than, well, lulz, the MAGA New Right is already locked and loaded to murder like me in cold blood because I have “forced” them to.
But, at the moment, it could go either way. Either we slip peacefully into an autocracy wereby it’s Conventional Wisdom that Republicans will always be in power, no matter what, or the country collapses and we bomb the fuck out of ourselves because…Cancel Culture?
One thing that is not going to happen — our continued muddling through from crisis to crisis. I say this because the Republican Party, on a systemic level, is now a radical fascist organization that is only tempered by it being American. If it was in any other country, it would already be pushing journalists out of helicopters by now.
I do think, however, that things are moving faster than I expected. I don’t know what I feel, but I definitely feel a quickening. We’re racing towards a very dark future and I’m beginning to believe — somehow — we won’t make it to 2024 – 2025. That the decision might be made for us before then.
If we’re lucky, however, we still have a few more years to figure out what we’re going to do when face with either autocracy or civil war.