by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Short Answer: I don’t know right now. Ask again in mid-2024.
Long answer: Keep an eye on what Donald Trump does. There are currently about a dozen would-be autocrats in the United States who could easily transition the country into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy given the opportunity.
And, yet, for any of them to get that opportunity, they have to get around the one person who could single-handedly, through personal incompetence push us into the other alternative — civil war: Donald Trump.
I say this because Trump could have very easily transitioned the United States into an autocracy in the 2017-2021 timeframe because that’s what he was elected to do by the people who voted for him: turn the United States into an autocracy. Too bad for them, they voted for the “You’re fired” guy and they got an idiot moron who was too lazy to do even the most barest of work necessary to establish one.
And when he did do any work is was at the very last moment when he tried to organize an insurrection to browbeat his veep into not doing a job he couldn’t even not do if he wanted to — certify the vote.
So, it’s very reasonable to believe that if it’s Trump that history gives the responsibility in 2024-2025 to transition the United States into an autocracy, he’s going to fuck it up so bad that we have a civil war. The people who love him so much are in a personality death cult. They love the “idea” of him so much that they are willfully ignorant to how what they want — a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy — is a lot more likely to happen under the guise of a President DeSantis, Cotton or Pompeo than ding-bat idiot Trump.
And, yet, that’s who they love, so they may get a civil war that destroys us all rather than a capable Great Man who would peacefully strangle America’s 240 years of democracy over the course of two or three years.
But a lot could happen between now and the general 2024-2025 timeframe when it appears we’re most likely to have some sort of severe political crisis. I will note that the earlier any type of “civil war” is triggered, the more likely anti-MAGA forces will win.
Since I get accused of “doom shit” by people Twitter liberals actually listen to, the minority report would be that, no, we’re not going to have a civil war. Somehow, magically, Trump and his whole ecosystem will somehow magically be brought down by a combination of hubris and a Justice Department that, to date, has not shown any indication that they’re going to do anything — ever — about Trump. What’s more because of how dire the rot within our political system is, somehow, even more magically, even if we do pin the planning of the January 6th Insurrection on Trump and friends we’re going to have the political will do hold them accountable for it. Instead of, say, just a big old lulz.
So, are we going to have a modern Civil War in the United States? The conditions are there for one, yes, but we’re not there yet. It’s going to be a few years before we reach a tipping point.
Probably.
