Month: August 2021

Trump’s Failed ‘Autogolpe’ Proves He’s Not A ‘Great Man’ — But He Could Still Cause A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The evidence continues to build that Trump was his own worst enemy when it came to the events of January 6th. If he wasn’t such a fucking IDIOT, his attempt at a self-coup or “autogolpe,” would have been successful. The crux of the issue is — the whole plot was done in a frenzied panic.

Me, if Trump is successful next time.

It gives one pause for thought to think that it isn’t that Trump isn’t an autocrat — he is — it’s just he’s so fucking lazy and stupid that he couldn’t pull it off even though he could have.

Or, put another way, the Hand of Fate pointed at Trump and gave him the opportunity and motive to stage a successful autogolpe in the United States. What he didn’t have was the means — he’s a barely cognizant man child who was simply playing himself.

This brings me to something I’ve found myself thinking a lot about of late: Trump is not a “great man.” He’s just an avatar. Right time, right place kind of guy. Hitler, or Stalin or whomever weren’t just playing themselves, they had agency — they warped history through sheer ego.

That avatar, not great man, element was in full display with Trump’s attempted autogolpe. Someone like Hitler wouldn’t have let the process get as far along as Trump did. And if Hitler was in such a situation, he would have used whatever means necessary to make sure he never had to leave office.

But Trump, oh boy. What a fucking moron.

We love you, Chauncy. You would never try to end our democracy.

Having said all that, there is the issue of Trump single-handedly, through sheer incompetence, forcing us into a civil war. It would happen either because Cyber Ninjas “proved” he “won” Arizona or he becomes Speaker when Republicans take the House in 2022 or he runs again in 2024 and there’s a nullification crisis when a MAGA Congress refuses to certify a Biden win.

Again, any of those scenarios would involve Trump being nothing more than a historical empty vessel. Any other autocrat would deftly transition the United States from liberal democracy into autocracy given any of those opportunities. But Trump is a fucking idiot so he could just crash into history and cause Blue States to bounce or Red States to bounce and cause the whole country to come crashing down unless the military decides to step in with some sort of temporary junta.

What I’m saying is — while we’re all going to be forced to take Trump both seriously and literally when the history of the United States is written, in a sense we dodged a huge fucking bullet (at least for the moment.) Almost any other person in the same political spectrum as Trump would have successfully destroyed American democracy.

As it is, Trump is just a lazy moron.

The Tokyo Olympics & The Prospect Of An ‘Omega Variant’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Each time COVID bounces from one person to the next, there’s a chance it might mutate into something along the lines of the virus found in The Stand. It’s an admittedly microscopic chance, but it does exist. Throw into the equation people from all over the world in Tokyo at the moment and it’s easy to imagine a Stephen King-size clusterfuck.

So, it’s at least possible that at some point in the next few months (years?) we’re going to have to go through all of this again because an Omega Variant breezes past all our vaccines and starts killing people not in the thousands, but the millions.

But that’s all very speculative. It’s just if the COVID pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that when you’re dealing with a virus, all the narrative management in the world isn’t going to save us.

And, yet, it could be I’m over thinking all of this. I’m often wrong. I hope I am this time, too.

‘Unfrozen Caveman Govenor’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea how to write a skit, but I do know how to tell a story. So, here you go, SNL — do something with this idea. One of the most beloved SNL skits is Phil Hartman’s “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer.” I think Ron DeSantis looks just like that character, so I would get one of the Not Ready For Primetime Players to be “Unfrozen Caveman Governor.”

Ron DeSantis

The conceit is that he’s VERY conservative, like Stone Age conservative. The humor would be the wink and a nod to the bonkers things that MAGA New Right Republicans actually believe.

In a sense, it would be sort of Chauncy Gardner of Being There, only if he was a caveman pol.

When To Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When should you panic when it comes to my dystopian predictions about the “Fourth Turning” being the existential choice of civil war or autocracy?

Second American Civil War
In some ways, this one is pretty obvious — there would be a catalyst that started the process of a states doing something akin to secession that would spark an event that we would refer to as “the Second American Civil War.” So, in a sense, you would know something was happening.

But at the same time, here are some metrics that would re-enforce the idea that the “Fourth Turning” of a civil war is about to happen. One is, Red people in Blue States and Blue people in Red states would begin to flee to states with politics that fit their personal views. This would be extremely dramatic. There are about 335 million Americans and if there was panic domestic political refugee movements it would be astonishing in scope.

Just as this happened, it’s likely New York City would be a massive flash point because a lot of conservative media is physically located there. So, if the United States really was about to buckle into some sort of Trumplandia and rump USA shooting war, it’s very possible that the offices of Fox News and the WSJ would be physically attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers. Trump Tower, too, could be stormed and gutted.

If you start seeing shit like that — we’re going to have a civil war.

Also, if you start to see radicalization on the part of, say, the talking heads of Today or Good Morning America or NPR — we’re really fucked. Those guys are the last bastions of “everyone stay calm.” If they freak out, then buckle up, we’re fucked.

Another thing that would happen about this time is severe violence on a state government level. There would be coups and counter-coups in states like Oregon, Virginia and Michigan.

One other thing — the draft would come back in a rather abrupt fashion.

Autocracy
The time to panic with autocracy in the United States is when the media is purged. This will happen in a way that the crumbling Establishment goes out of its way to minimize and rationalize.

Then, gradually, in fits and starts any form of protesting will be crushed and, yes, people will begin to mysteriously get pushed out of widows.

Form follows function.

The Outline For The First Act Keeps Collapsing (But Getting Better)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, after having looked at a few more episodes of Mare Of Easttown, I’m beginning to figure out how to fix my first act. That doesn’t, of course, prevent the outline I’m working on from collapsing again and again. But every time it collapses, it gets better.

I’m getting closer and closer to wrapping up the outline so I can get back to writing again. As I’ve mentioned before, I have a three step process to development — outline, scene summary and then writing. During the course of each of those steps, things have a tendency to collapse on me, sometimes in a rather spectacular fashion.

But I do have a huge amount of forward momentum, which helps.

And I’ve figured out that if I aggressively distract myself by watching something like Mare of Easttown or reading a book about writing — or, even better, another thriller — it figure out the solution to my problems.

I’m Studying ‘Mare Of Easttown’ In An Attempt To Solve A First Act Problem


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are going well with the first novel in the four novel series I’m writing all at once, but for one thing — I’ve got a first act problem. But things have grown so overheated in my mind about the struggle to figure out how to get from the beginning to where I know I want to end the first act that I’m just going to cool it for a few hours.

One issue that I have to keep at the forefront of my mind is who the protagonist of this novel is. Because I know what happens over the course of the four novels, I know who is REALLY IMPORTANT to the macro arc of the series — but that person isn’t the protagonist of this novel.

So, I have to think about the character and motivations of the person who is the protagonist. That is helping a lot to figure out — now — what goes on in the first act of this particular novel. But the more time I distract myself with other things, the more I realize that I need to really prep the audience for the dramatic events that take place at the beginning of the second act. As such, I’m having to think outside the box some from things that I have taken for granted would be in the first act.

Anyway, I’m distracting myself right now watching Kate Winslet’s Mare of Easttown and studying it. It is very much a character driven story and that’s something I need to lean into with the novels I’m working on. The better I know the motivations of the characters I’m working with, the either it will be to fix some lingering issues that are currently an obstacle.

But I can feel my mind beginning to get some solutions figured out. I will note that the more serious I become with this series, the less obliged I feel to write about writing it. I’m tired of seeming to be all talk and not work. But sometimes I need to left off some steam, so I write about writing even though I am growing weary of it.

“Welcome To The New Right!’ — The Rise Of Republican White Nationalist Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ are we fucked. It’s growing tiresome to point out how dire things are at the moment. All the conditions are there for the United States to drift peacefully into something akin to “lite touch” fascism. The only reason why it would be a bit mellow — at first — is the absence of a large-scale SA / SS paramilitary group.

We have them, but there are too many of them who are fractious and not really the jackbooted thugs that a fascism government would need. Add to that the so-called Deep State of people who simply want to keep our failing liberal democratic traditions alive in some form and at first there will be only one change: the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats control Congress, too.

Otherwise, things will — initially, at least — be the same as they always have.

The problem is, form follows function. Once white nationalist fascists realize they can do whatever the fuck they want and there will be absolutely no consequences for them, they’re going to grow more aggressive. Before you know it, my running gag about me being pushed out a window by ICE won’t be so funny anymore. (Gulp)

Soon enough, living in the United States and Russia will be like the end of Animal Farm — we’ll look back and forth between the two and they’ll look identical. Only when it becomes personal will the average white Christian MAGA person care about the abuses of our new white nationalist fascist overlords

As of right now, that seems to be our fate. We’re just going to peacefully transition into a white nationalist fascist autocracy without a peep of objection. We’re going to both-sides ourselves into autocracy. There will be a MAGA-originated Constitutional Convention and whichever one of the would-be autocrats who are chomping at the bit to succeed Trump wins will become an American Putin.

Generations of Americans will only know President Hawley, or President Pompeo or President Noam or President Cotton….the list goes on. There will be occasional big protests and occasional random acts of savage political violence on the part of the white national fascists. But, overall, America will be a national of “blood and soil” and indistinguishable from Russia or Hungry or Turkey.

There are a few known unknowns that could scramble what seems inevitable now. Trump is a fucking idiot who could push himself into macro historical trends AGAIN and force an avoidable civil war on us out of sheer incompetence. Or our transition into a white Christian nationalist fascist state might hit Blue States in just the wrong way and they bounce, causing a civil war.

But, in general, the Establishment simply isn’t taking the fucking New Right seriously enough. So, we’re fucked.

Three Impending Potential Crisis Events That Could Be The Catalyst For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are three moments to think about in the future when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that faces us.

Near term: The Cyber Ninjas Arizona Recount
The Cyber Ninjas clusterfuck sham “audit” is one of those things I just can’t game out. I have no idea what the outcome of them “proving” that Trump “won” the state after all will be. Everything from civil war to it just being something Russian trolls piviot to on Twitter is a potential outcome. Trump already makes it clear he thinks he should be re-instated as POTUS as soon as possible.

I guess what I’m afraid of is a dynamic similar to what happened on January 6th, only on a national scale. The moment the Cyber Ninjas preliminary report is filed that tells Trump won, he’s going to freak the fuck out. Trump has a $100 million war chest to fuck things up, so maybe he would stop grifting long enough to use that money to put pressure on MAGA legislatures to have “Decertification Conventions?”

Or something like that.

And, yet, Trump pretty much has been saying this exact same thing — that if you’re MAGA and have the power to decertify Biden’s win in your state, get to it — and nothing has happened. It’s just kind of rolling around the far Right echo chamber with Mike Flynn. Something would have to change. People with something to lose would have to feel the base of the Republican Party was so juiced up with Big Lie rhetoric that they actually expected them to do something about it now that there was “proof” that Trump “won” Arizona.

Again, the Cyber Ninjas thing is something that is easy to imagine on paper, but in the real world…it could very well just become another MAGA New Right talking point for Jesse Kelly after he says, “Welcome To The New Right!” when he does something embarrassing he can’t properly defend.

I guess the point is — Cyber Ninjas in itself could be enough to push us into a some sort of secession crisis. And, yet, lulz. Who knows.

Middle Term: The 2022 mid-terms
It could be that what gets us is not Cyber Ninjas or the 2024 Congressional Nullification Crisis, but the 2022 mid-terms. It could be that we’re so fragile on a political level that just the added pressure of the mid-terms will be enough to cause us to collapse.

The way I imagine it happening wouldn’t be the mid-terms themselves, but what they would bring –a Republican controlled Congress. In this case, the civil war would happen not with Red States leaving the Union to form Trumplandia, but with Blue States leaving the Union when Speaker Trump impeaches both Biden and Harris and then incites a civil war when Senate Democrats won’t convict.

This option is a bit nebulous, but it is possible. It’s also possible that the mid-terms could turn tragic if it becomes really obvious that the Republican Party officially won’t brook the Democratic Party winning — ever. That might be enough to cause Blue States to bounce. Or not. Who knows.

Longer Term: The 2024 President Election
It seems to me that this is going to be it — if we make it through Cyber Ninjas and the 2022 midterms, it will be January 2025 that forces us to make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Everything will come to a head in late 2024 to early 2025. Long term metrics of politics and demographics will come to a sharp point. There will, at last, be no middle ground for anyone — autocracy or civil war.

Either we allow Republicans to nullify the result of a Biden win, there’s another (successful) insurrection to do just that or we have a fucking civil war. Everyone will have to take a side. No exceptions.

January 2025 is going to be a momentous year in our nation’s history — if we make it to that point. But we could doge the situation if a major regional war popped up or, I dunno, some sort of COVID19 variant popped out that killed millions.

Otherwise, we’re fucked on a political history basis.

America is Careening Towards The Existential Choice of Autocracy Or Civil War In January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is either just a few years away from descending into full MAGA New Right autocracy or this is a modern antebellum period. Take your pick. You only have those two choices.

Let me state at the beginning that I got a lot — a whole lot — wrong about the Trump Era.

But looking back, most of my errors were miscalculations about what Trump was actually capable of doing. He talked like an autocrat, but he didn’t walk like one. So, I spent all this time thinking up pretty basic autocratic things he could do…and he was just too lazy and stupid to do them. As such, you have a situation where it seemed very easy to me during the 2020 presidential cycle that Trump would steal the election and become an autocrat via a Koch Brothers-inspired Constitutional Convention.

It was a gimme for Trump. All the conditions were there. All the metrics. Everything. All Trump had to do was fire enough people to get someone to indict Joe Biden and have images of him being frog walked at some point leading up to November 2020 and that would be it. What’s more, as late as a few days after the 2020 election, Trump STILL could have stolen the election and he just didn’t have the wherewithal.

So what happened was he panicked. He made a last ditch effort to steal the election by having his angry mob want to “Hang Mike Pence.” But it was always a dumb plan and all it did was give Republicans, on an systemic basis, a heads up as to how to steal future elections.

But back to 2024.

It’s seems a forgone conclusion that in January 2025, either we slip peacefully into some sort of MAGA New Right autocracy because it officially becomes conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress at the same time or we have a civil war. And my bet is if it happens in 2025, it’s going to be Blue States, not Red States that bounce.

The dead hand of history is on Red States’ side — they have the macro trend momentum — and so when the moment comes and it’s clear we’re going to be an autocracy, there’s a chance that Blue States simply won’t put up with it and we have a civil war.

Of course, there’s one issue I can’t game out: the U.S. Military.

It’s possible that in the end, the military gets over itself and steps in. They depose the MAGA New Right autocrat, form a junta with Jim Mattis at its head and call a Constitutional Convention to fix the problems facing the country. Hopefully, of course, they’ll ensure that it’s not a MAGA dominated convention, but who knows.

All I know is, something’s gotta give. The positions of the two sides are hardening to the point that something’s going to change very soon, within a few years. Things are going to change in a big, historic fashion that a lot of people are simply not prepared to experience.

I can’t predict the future. So I could be wrong — again. But barring something big happening that throws everything out of whack (the LHC is going back online in 2022, so lulz) I just don’t see how we don’t have a pretty massive turning point in American history around January 2025.

AOC & The End Of The Meh Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If the book The Fourth Turning is to be believed, we’re currently in a holding pattern until Something Big happens around 2025. I don’t believe in reveled truth, but that jibes with my personal belief that January 2025 is going to be huge because we’re either going to peacefully drift into an autocracy or, gulp, we’re going to have a civil war.

We’re kind of in a historical holding pattern at the moment. We live in an Era of Meh. But whenever that changes, everything is going to be thrown up in the air. People who currently are just kind of drifting through history may be forced to rise to the occasion.

One person this is very true about is AOC. She’s young, smart and articulate. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where when the crisis of January 2025 happens she is forced into the spotlight in a big way. She might find herself in a Giuliani on 9/11 type situation.

Or, put another way, a side effect of the impending chaos we’re careening towards would be someone like AOC. She’s ripe to be pushed into the next level of our political life for no other reason than she may feel compelled to take a stand that puts her in serious risk.

I have no idea what any of this would entail, but if the country is falling apart because a MAGA controlled Congress refuses to certify a Biden win in January 2025, AOC seems like the type of person who might lead the effort to stop such a tyrannical move.

Anyway. What do I know. Lulz.