#CapitolRiot: What Did Trump Know & When Did He Know It?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump just can’t keep a secret. So, given his public comments leading up to January 6th, it’s beginning to appear as though Trump may have known a lot more about what was going on than we now know.

Usually, during a Trump Era scandal, this is the point when an audiotape of Trump saying something incriminating happens. We all get upset for a few days, then we move on.

But, for the time being, this moment in time feels different and so if something like that did pop out, Trump would face some severe political consequences. Even if he’s got one foot out the door.

I have a general sense at this point that Trump probably knew a lot more about the details of the Capitol Riot than you might think. I doubt he was involved in the specific planning — he can’t keep a secret, after all — but he knew how big the event was going to be and that he might be able to stage a coup using the existing infrastructure that was being built out.

Yet for the time being, I think Trump is going to escape justice yet again. He’s almost out of office and even his extra-political, extra-legal or extra-Constitutional options are kind of limited right now. He could maybe do something in a spasm of panic, but he’s done none of the hard work of autocrat.

My fear now is he’s going to grow extremely passive-aggressive to the point that we start to think he’s a danger to himself our us.

Taking Stock Of A Nation On The Brink


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the conditions for a civil war – revolution in the United States is there already: the positions of the two sides are beginning to harden. What isn’t there yet is Trump going transaction or there being enough rolling political violence across the country that there are significant domestic political refugees.

Those last two things would be the last stages before the country buckled. And, really, with Trump still president for 10 days, that’s actually not a unlikely as you might think. All Trump has to do is snap — even more so than he already has — and goad people into taking up arms against anyone they feel isn’t MAGA and the other part takes care of itself.

Once America’s transportation system is clogged with Blue people from Red states and Red people from Blue states fleeing for their lives, then, well, we’re going to to show.

But that is so dystopian that I’m just not prepared to believe that’s going to happen. While Trump is going to continue to do everything in his power to destroy the United States, MAGA just isn’t organized enough — or bloodthirsty enough — to leap into the void. At least not yet.

Give them four years to marinate in their hate and I think they will be.

Or, put another way, the great irony of all of this would be if Trump — whose appearance in 2025 was probably about as early as his type political rise was going to happen — squashed what might otherwise be an extremely destructive political movement because he demanded they strike too soon.

But all this could be Trump’s beerhall putsch and he — or someone like him — will be victorious in about a decade. (Which makes a lot of sense.)

The Prospect Of A ‘MAGA Revolution,’ Reassessed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long suggested that any MAGA shithead cocksucker touting the idea of a “MAGA Revolution” was an idiot. And they are. They’re idiots for a number of reasons. One is, generally revolutions at least start off with a Leftist bent and also, well, any such “revolution” would likely be a civil war, not a revolution.

But, given the events of January 6th, let’s do a reassessment.

The only time I can think of that there was the prospect of a Right wing revolution was in the early days of the Nazi take over of Germany. The SA were a lot more radical than the the rest of the Nazi movement and they were quickly squashed with they got a little too uppity. The SA wanted a far more radical transformation of Germany life than Hitler was prepared to enact. So Nazism remained a somehow bland version of fascism for a lot longer than it might have otherwise. The really nasty parts didn’t pop out until a few years later.

As I understand it, it was the viciousness with which Hitler got rid of them that made people sit up and take notice that he was not the clown everyone thought he was.

So, is it possible there may be a “MAGA Revolution” sometime soon?

After January 6th, I have to say my answer is now a firm “maybe.”

The key to any such “revolution” would be Trump. If he really leaned into going transactional as he really began to lose his mind, then, yes, there might be significant rolling violence across the country that might be marketed as a “revolution.”

But the United States is a big, big country and the while things might get bloody and scary for a while, the moment Biden is in control of the U.S. Military, the dynamic of things changes rather dramatically. I guess the difference between a “revolution” and a “civil war” would be how much of any significant action on the part of MAGA had the thin veneer of legality to it and how much didn’t.

If it was a revolution, rather than a civil war, then at its onset, there would be some sort of SA / SS attacks on state capitals across the country. This, sadly, has already begun to happen. But, like I said, the United States is a big country both in geographic size and population, so while you probably could pull of a successful MAGA revolution in, say, North Dakota by simply seizing the a few cities, if you attempted any such “revolution” in a Southern state, all you would do is incite a race war.

Not that a lot of Turner Diaries reading Proud Boys wouldn’t want that, but a revolution, by definition, is even more radical than a civil war and a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people would likely blanch at the atrocities that MAGA “revolution” would entail from day one.

As such, what might happen is a combination civil war – revolution. In the sparsely populated Red States of the heartland, you might have secession, while in the South, you just have a regular old race war in conjunction with a “revolution.”

But all of that — at least for the time being — is rather dystopian even for me. A lot — maybe all of it — depends Trump. If he really and I mean REALLY loses his mind, then his followers may get their revolution – civil war sooner rather than later.

I still think it’s more likely to be closer to 2025.

So, as Mitt Romney would say we have to all “hold our breath” for a few more days to see which way things will go.

Of Trump Potentially Using The ‘Presidential Text Alert System’ Instead of Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m pretty good, in a vague way, of calling what Trump is going to do in the Final Days. I pretty much called the significance of January 6th, though I didn’t call anything specific — just that it would be important.

But anyway.

One interesting thing is Trump still hasn’t snapped like I thought he would. I thought he would get into a logic trap and go REALLY CRAZY. But he’s still the usual olde crazy. One sign we would get that he was totally off the reservation would be if he started to do a quick succession of things that did not really help him as the House rushes to impeach him — again.

One of those things would be to use the Presidential Text Alert System — usually reserved for, like, announcing nuclear war — as something akin to a replacement for Twitter now that he’s lost that account.

There’s a lot to take into account on this front.

Remember, in real terms, Trump’s era is over, so he would have to do something that slowed time down significantly for there to be a even more of a mad rush to get rid of him. Trump has yet to do something REALLY FUCKING CRAZY like incite sedition using the Presidential Text Alert System to shoot out a tweet to everyone in America’s phone. In, fact, he seems pretty chill compared to what I expected he would be at this point.

Something would have to change, and change fast — like in the next 48 hours. Yes, he’s supposed to have a press conference at the Alamo, but, really, even if he went Howard Beale at such a conference, he only has less than two weeks in office.

The Final Days of Trumplandia.

Trump would have to go transactional — start a war, tell his followers to overthrow the government in a specific type way or, say, use the Presidential Text Alert System to do any number of really crazy transactional things.

But him just blabbering at a press conference wouldn’t be enough. He’s been doing that for some time now — four years — and it was only when he went transactional in front of a crazed hoard near the Capitol that it mattered to anyone.

So, really, while Trump is, in fact, a massive self-own artist, as of right this second, he’s going to escape justice, just like he always does. Only time will tell.

Trump’s Second Impeachment: ‘Is That It?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m really angry about this whole Trump situation. One of the many reasons why I’m angry is whatever justice we may get for Trump will happen after it’s moot. All the numerous other things he should have been impeached and convicted for will fall into the memory hole and he will serve out his entire term.

Nothing epitomizes this more than someone I know who voted for Trump this year, and now agrees with me he’s “gotta go.” This enrages me. But for Trump self-owning at the very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, VERY end of his administration, he could easily come back in 2024 and WIN.

So, Republicans have gotten everything they wanted from a Trump Administration and now that it’s over, they can cut Trump loose. The whole thing is value free other than the plutocrat tax cut and young hack MAGA judges.

What’s more, Republicans could get it into their head that it would be politically valuable for them to have witnesses this time around for no other reason than to make it difficult for anything else to happen in Washington during the early days of the Biden Administration.

It’s all very frustrating. And leaves one with a sense of political disorientation and cognitive dissidence. It leaves you asking, “Is that it?”

And, sadly, it appears that really is it.

Trump’s Second Impeachment May Be A Huge Clusterfuck (But It Has To Happen)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even leaving office and into his post-presidency, Trump has managed to figure out a way to gummy up the works. And, as it stands, in real terms, Trump is poised to “get away with it”

Here’s why: the case can be made that January 20th is his impeachment and conviction and he’s going to pardon everyone on January 19th, so his entire era will be value free.

There will be no consequences other than young hack MAGA judges and a tax cut for plutocrats. That could change if suddenly two weeks is doesn’t evoke the idea of “Oh, that’s just a few days” but rather OH MY GOD HE’S IN OFFICE FOR ABOUT TWO WEEKS.

If Trump can just stay catatonic between now and January 20th, then we’re set to drift into the Biden Era. We all know it would go against his nature to do any such thing. So, there’s a pretty chance he’s going to do something so crazy in the next few days that there’s going to be a pretty dramatic lurch towards impeaching and convicting Trump even before January 20th.

But let’s say that doesn’t happen.

The Senate trial against Trump will be both painfully moot, divisive, self-defeating and absolute necessary.

And the case could be made that Republicans, seeing an opportunity to fuck up Biden’s political honeymoon, might decide THEY want witnesses and to drag out what, in real terms, is a politically meaningless act — an impeachment trial after Trump’s actually out of office. Yes, there are a few significant goodies that Trump could be denied if he’s convicted, but in real terms, at least in the short term Trump will “get away with” his crimes and his entire era will be completely, totally, fucking value free.

Anyway. It’s one of those things that has to happen and at the same time doesn’t really mean anything. Which, I think, sums up the Trump Era quite nicely.

What MSM Can Learn From Nascent ‘Tik-Tok Journalism’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Absolutely no one listens to me. But I will suggest, in passing, that MSM should study the growing number of people doing journalism on Tik-Tok. Such journalism is a lot like TV journalism, but it’s a lot tighter because they have only a minute — though that may be expanded to three minutes soon.

I read exceptionally well-written articles from the New York Times and they’re just too long. Give me 300 words and a Tik-Tok-style video instead. Unless something radical is done to traditional journalism, it may fade away entirely. Such a “radical” thing might be to re-imagine what a news story is. You can convey a lot of information via a Tik-Tok video and if you have the imprimatur of the New York Times on such a video, it would be quite good.

But, again, lulz. No one listens to me.

Even if I’m right, I won’t get any credit for it.

Trump, As Always, Has His Fate — And Ours — In His Own Hands


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. Trump has less than a fortnight in office and if he simply plays golf — or stays catatonic — he’s safe. He will cruse into retirement and that will be that. But this is Trump we’re talking about, so it’s possible that at any moment Trump will really fucking flip out.

But I’m beginning to think maybe he’s not going to freak out. I think that now that he’s lost his Twitter account that he’ll just stew in juice quietly and that’s it.

And, yet, as Mitt Romney suggests, we may just have to “hold our breath” for the last few days of Trump’s time in office. There’s really no way to know one way or another at this point.

I dunno. It definitely seems as though Trump is going to escape justice — again — because he just isn’t going to do anything more to cause problems. It’s less than two weeks. He really is going to have to freak the fuck out before anyone in the Republican Party thinks seriously about getting Trump out of office before the 20th.

MAGA Trump Deadenders Are The Future Of The Republican Party


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is probably going to be a modern day Watergate for the Republican Party. Its entire center of political gravity will shift so Trump is its be-all and end-all. I say this because that’s what Nixon became after Watergate.

Reagan was pretty much a Nixon deadender and he almost won the nomination in 1976. So, it makes sense that the Republican Party will either split into a pro-Trump and a lukewarm Trump factions, or Trump will simply consume the whole thing now. It’s also possible that if the Trump faction doesn’t take over the Republican Party that it will bolt into its own party. The Patriot Party, maybe?

So, I would keep an eye on people like Jason Miller as to the future of the Republican Party. If Trump or Ivanka aren’t the nominee, it could be someone like him who gets a lot closer to the nomination than you might think.

Or, maybe Miller will run for Senator. Or Governor.

I guess what I’m trying to say is things are a lot more up in the air than you might think.

Of Trump’s Second Impeachment


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a number of reasons why what seems like a dumb idea — impeaching Trump a second time with less than two weeks before he’s out of office — is actually good politics.

1.It’s A Failsafe
We don’t know if Trump is going to finally snap in the last few days of his term, so it would be nice to have the legal framework to remove him from office on a near-moment’s notice lying around. That’s why this weekend could be significant — Trump could really flip out before impeachment is voted on early next week and we won’t have any way of getting rid of him. Once the House passes impeachment, though, there’s always a chance that the Senate could do a unanimous consent type thing and get him out of office as soon as it becomes clear he’s a danger to himself — or us.

2. Shame
While I have no doubt that Trump could come back tan, ready and rested in 2024, at least he’ll have the shame of being the only president to be impeached twice. There’s little more than that we can do to slow things down.

3. A Truth & Reconciliation Commission
It’s possible that if #MoscowMitch can’t “process” the impeachment until after Trump’s out of office, that the impeachment trial will happen once Trump’s out office. (I’ve heard conflicting accounts as to if this is even possible.) But the case could be made that once the deadline of January 20th is passed, we could have a significant and deep investigation into the Trump Era in the guise of a pretty moot Senate Impeachment Trial. (Though the issue of Trump being able to run again would be an issue.)

But the issue we have to remember at this point is this — if Trump simply lays low for about two weeks, he’s safe. If he acts up and self-owns AGAIN in some sort of massive screw up that he’s in deep, deep trouble.

As of right now, he looks like he’s going to behave. He no longer has a Twitter account. He’s just going to rattle around in the White House and escape justice like he always does.