Month: February 2020

The Corona Virus & Possibility Of A ‘Chernobyl Syndrome’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on with Wuhan, is there’s a real chance we have a HBO mini-series about it in 30 years that tells us 1 million people died in the city, but it could have been 100 million people all over the globe. So, in that sense, while what happened is A Worst Case Scenario, it was not THE Worst Case Scenario.

I say that because that’s pretty much what happened in Chernobyl. That accident could have been far, far, worst, with much of Europe either being dead or being force to leave a now uninhabitable continent.

And, really, as long as there are no new additional hotzones outside of Wuhan — as long as there are not spots on the globe were the death rate connected to WuFlu isn’t growing exponentially on a daily rate, then that particular Chernobyl Scenario could very well happen. The only thing we might notice in the West is the global economy slows down a little bit. Otherwise, it will remain a lulz and Western Twitter Liberals will chuckle that they were right all along about how “more people die from the flu.” That 1 million people died in Wuhan (because we won’t know for 20 years) won’t really be factored in.

As I’ve said, if you want some sense of any possibility that a lot of people are going to die in the United States, I would keep an eye on the number of obituaries of elderly Hollywood celebrities. Given that the mortality rate for elderly individuals with WuFlu is pretty brutal, that would be the first indication that we might be in for a bumpy few weeks, if not months. Just take a look.

I remain hopeful, however, that this is all being overblown. I have a novel to work on it would be a real pain in the butt if the Apocalypse got in the way.

‘More Cowbell’ — Celebrity Deaths Would Be Our Corona Virus Trip Wire

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As you can see for yourself, you face a grim future if you’re an elderly person who catches wuflu.

(Don’t Fear) The Reaper

Now, I hope this doesn’t happen. I hope we all look back on this moment in time and laugh over it all (if we’re not crying because we’re being tortured by an ICE agent during our re-education.) But if in the coming days 20, 30, 40 elderly celebrities all die in quick succession, then, well, buckle up.

Add to this the cold, hard fact that a lot of powerful people right now are, well, old, and it’s at least possible we’re in for something of a shakeup with nations across the globe. Just the Queen dying of WuFlu would be enough to cause a global panic for a few days. Of course, they would likely try to hide the exact nature of her demise for as long as possible because of that — they might just say she “died after a brief illness.” Her death will be of such historical import to millions of people across the globe that for her to die of WuFlu would rattle a whole lot of cadges all at once.

But, again, maybe I’m reading too much into things. Maybe we have nothing to worry about. I see a lot lot of bullshit on the Internet that tries to stoke people’s fears and feed into their confirmation bias. How much of what I’m seeing is real, I don’t know.

The chief issue is best I can tell, there are no new hotzones outside of Wuhan itself. If that changes — it would likely change in a pretty dramatic fashion if it did — then things are going to get bumpy. There’s a chance that we may have a Chernobyl situation on our hands where A worst case scenario, not THE worse case scenario happens. As I said, we’ll know soon enough when — and if — if the deaths of a large number of celebrities are reported in quick succession.

‘Recalibration’ #WritingLife #AmWriting

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve realized that I need to learn more about structure. What I have been doing — using Stieg Larsson’s “The Girl Who Played With Fire” as my textbook on structure simply doesn’t work with my novel for a number reasons on a number of different levels. I have an actual text book on scene and structure and I’m going to at least attempt to sit down and read that now. This has happened for a number of reasons. I can’t keep trying to do a one-to-one copy of The Girl Who Played With Fire’s structure. It just doesn’t work. I have to understand structure independent of that book.

I had an interesting conversation with an elderly woman who definitely had a very low opinion of my efforts to write a novel. But, ultimately, the chief take away was — I need to go faster and I need to realize I probably have a limited amount of time to get this done. I’ve been moving forward with development, yes, but this ideal situation isn’t going to last forever. I am going to at least try to re-double my efforts and be more focused on the task at hand. Hopefully.

Any normal human being would shut up about what he’s working on, but I’m not normal. I’m 100% extroverted and usually — unless there’s a specific reason to do otherwise — I pretty much just talk about whatever’s on my mind in as conspicuous a manner as possible.

Regardless, I’ve entered yet another new — if subtle — phase in development. I have a better understanding of how badly I miscalculated at the beginning of this process on more than one level. I thought this was going to be simple of a matter of casually studying The Girl Who Played With Fire and could happen all within maybe two years.

What happened was the whole thing was very poorly thought out at the beginning and as my storytelling ability has gotten better, my personal demands on myself have also gotten higher. And so there you go.

Some Theories On What Happens To Pop Culture Now

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that we’re in the Fourth Reich after the acquittal of Trump, what happens to pop culture? I thought at first maybe a sizable chunk of the audience might want some sort of emotional catharsis. But I now think it may be a bit more complex than that.

What’s more likely to happen is we’ll enter a sort of second 70s in that a lot of people are just going to want to dance while other people want to see serious, gritty movies and TV show that address what just happened. I think. I don’t know.

Given what the novel I’m writing is about, I definitely have a vested interest in people wanting Trumplandia catharsis. But we’ll see. I’m writing a novel instead of screenplay because I live in the middle of nowhere, it affords me more nuanced creative universe building ability and just don’t want to write a screenplay right now.

Back To #Novel Development #amwriting #writing #writinglife

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Barring, like, a global pandemic, I am going to officially jump back into the development of my novel immediately with an eye to wrapping it up in a few months. Things are going really well and as such I’m going to give myself until April.

Then, I’m going to throw myself into writing a really, really good first draft.

Mulling A Potential WuFlu Pandemic

Shelton Bumgarner
Our future?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what’s going to happen with WuFlu and you probably shouldn’t listen to me. But I will note as of right now, WuFlu is an abstract to Americans on a historical level.

Once that changes, then it will be a record scratch to a lot of people who are otherwise raising their kids and enjoying the “humming economy.” If that obliviousness changes, it will likely because someone keels over in a rather public and conspicuous manner.

If you want an early warning about what might happen, keep an eye on well-known elderly people. If, say, a series of well-known old people in the West simply dropped dead in quick succession, then that’s your cue that we’re in trouble. The WuFlu mortality rate among the elderly is a sight to see.

The thing I hope we are able to do sooner rather than later is to stop seeing these events through the prism of hyper partisanship. Once everyone freaks the fuck out and people begin to get sick and die all over the world at the same time — if that does, in fact, happen — then we have to see ourselves not as Republican or Democrat, but as patriots, citizens and humans.

Of course, this is not going to happen at first. Twitter liberals will blame poor policy and MAGA will say it’s all part of God’s will. This will delay any type of practical response as both sides attempt to score short term political points. But, remember, if there’s a second wave of deaths in the States with multiple hotzones, four events are likely to be seen in hindsight as what aggravated the situation — the impeachment trial, the Superbowl, the Iowa Caucuses and the State of The Union Address.

But maybe that won’t happen. Hopefully that won’t happen. Hopefully there will be no WuFlu cowboys crashing into the bubble of modern American political history that is a musical dance scene and the only thing we’ll notice is gas is a little cheaper.

The Politics Of Pandemic Perception

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea if we’re in a pandemic or not. For me to know for sure, a few things would have to happen. I just don’t know what’s going on. I’m NOT a medical professional and all I can give you is an educated opinion based on what I’ve come to believe from looking at Twitter.

  • There would have to be major outbreaks of WuFlu all over the world at the same time.
  • Significant deaths would have to take place in the West
  • People would start to make economic decisions on their fears associated with WuFlu

None of those things have happened yet in real terms, so it could still be that this is just going to be another one of those scares that stays an abstract in the West. Given how much the States is in debt to China, it’s at least a little less possible for Trump to demagogue the situation and blame Chinese people for all his problems. Not saying he won’t try, but his usual racist routine may not be as effective.

Right now, my main metric is the number of fatalities — especially in the West. But in real terms, it could be that the fatality rate stays relatively low but the perception is enough that it causes a panic that is totally not connected to the size of the threat.

All it takes is one person being video taped keeling over from WuFlu in Times Square and all hell will break loose.

Anyway, stay safe and don’t panic.

Practical Responses To WuFlu On A Personal Level

Can’t Get Sick If You Don’t Catch It
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what is going to happen with WuFlu. None. It could be that it’s going to simply be problem for the greater East Asia area and that’s it. It will stay an abstract in the West and the only thing anyone in the States will notice is a slight slowdown in the economy. The Fourth Reich will chug along with gusto and I end up in an ICE camp within two years.

Then there’s a much darker option — all hell breaks loose. When that might happen, I don’t know. Could be today, could be 12 weeks from now. But here are some practical ways to address WuFlu as we wait. (Please note, I’m not a medical professional and I’m simply giving you my educated opinion from what I’ve read on Twitter.)

Wash Your Hands
This is important because it’s easy to do in private. Everytime you shake hands or touch your face, you need to wash your hands as soon as possible.

Wear A Mask
I continue to hear contradictory things about this. Some say a mask doesn’t help, while other say it does. But the basic thing is it prevents you from touching your face.

Change How You Greet People
In “hotzones” they don’t just fistbump, they sometimes elbow bump as well. You can be sly and fistbump people, while elbow bumping is rather eerie if the person you want to do it with is unfamiliar.

Hopefully, we won’t have to worry about any of this. Hopefully, this is just a another scare that passes like so much dust in the wind.

#WuFlu Datapoints Of Note For Feb. 1st, 2020

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The following things are happening or are in the process of wrapping up between now and Wednesday.

Impeachment in the US (Finishes on Wednesday.)
Superbowl (Sunday, Feb 2nd.)
Iowa Caucus (Monday, Feb. 3rd.)
State of the Union (Tuesday, Feb. 4th.)
The Oscars are later this month as well.

All of these are social events with either large groups of people are large groups of powerful people shaking hands or being in the same room together for long durations of time.

As I understand it, a delegation of 80 MAGA sycophants holding positions all over the US government is going to Iowa over the next few days. They will take planes together and be in the same place at the same time.

Queen Elisabeth II / 93
Prince Philip / 98
Prince Charles / 71
Donald Trump / 73
Joe Biden / 77
Bernie Sanders / 78

There have been no reported deaths outside of China to date.

I’m sure everything is going to work out and America will be made great again.