Month: August 2019

Impeach Trump Over His Tweeting

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I hate to break it to House Democrats, but there’s no political will to do anything about Trump being a criminal, possibly treasonous president. We’ve moved on. It’s baked into the cake, as they say.

Having said that, if you really want to give Trump the black stain of impeachment, don’t go after the complex stuff that can’t be fit into a tweet. Go after his tweeting.

Now, him Tweeting is not, in itself, a crime. But what he has done over the last few years via tweet is. We’ve had witness tampering and intimidation. We’ve seeing a great lowering of respect for the office he holds. We’ve seen any number of other things that at least rise to the level of “misdemeanor” in a Constitutional sense. Add to this that two of the last three presidents — at least — who got impeached were charged with things they said in speeches or the ill repute they brought on the office and, well, there you go.

I’m not saying don’t look into the wide-range of criminal things Trump’s done that could lead to is impeachment. Go for it. But I am saying going after his tweeting gives House investigators something really, really compelling to show on TV: psychiatrists under oath saying they think the president’s nuts.

But there are some conditions to this proposal. One, things have to get worse. So much worse that it’s difficult for Trump to simply tell his cult followers that he was “joking.” The economy would also have to begin to slow noticeably. Lastly, and this is the crazy part, there would have to be a white-knuckled political calculation on the part of Republican leadership that they could actually have a better shot of winning the White House again with Pence instead of Trump. If you don’t have that last piece, then, well, all of this would, in fact, hurt Trump politically. But there’s a decent shot (greater than 50/50) that he will win re-election somehow. I say this because in general populist autocrats don’t lose.

Another key point is a lot of people who support Trump don’t support his manic tweeting. So that would at least give House leaders some cover politically. It’s a lot less likely that they would face the same fate as the Republicans who impeached Bill Clinton. Though, it must be noted, the after affects of that impeachment lead directly to Gore not being able to win decisively in 2000.

Do I think this will happen? Not right now. Things could go either way right now. Either Trump continues to hold on to just enough sanity that he is able to function — at least in public — or he slides into far more dangerous territory and what I propose begins to make a lot more sense.

Contemplating Trump Going Full Howard Beale

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Mental health is rather mysterious at times. That’s what makes it so troubling. People can seem normal then begin to act extremely erratic. In fiction, the character of Howard Beale in Network is a prime example of how this can feel to others.

So, with Trump, I just don’t know. That’s the thing about whatever is wrong with him. He can go long stretches of time seeming reasonably normal and then he does batshit insane things like look up at the sun while saying he’s “the chosen one.” That CNN is talking about Trump “blowing up” the G7 meeting this weekend at all is a testament to how bad things have gotten.

The thing I struggle with is how a real Trump mental health crisis might occur. There’s a real chance that he might just slowly grow worse in such a manner that the Overton Window kicks in and we’ll just drift into a Trump second term. We’ll just be so accustomed to him being batshit insane that by 2023 he’ll be barely functioning and we’ll just shrug it off.

But that assumes the economy is going to continue to do well. If the economy tanks in a meaningful way, we may lurch forward in the severity of his bonkers behavior. If that happens, I think there may be calls to use the existing momentum for impeachment to impeach him not for being a fucking criminal — which he is — but for the all the tweeting. Now, I only even suggest that Trump might be impeached for bizarre tweeting because apparently both Andrew Johnson and Richmond Nixon had articles of impeachment that dealt with such stuff. Johnson got in trouble for some speeches, while Nixon got in trouble for a moral general “bringing the office of president into disrepute.” (As I recall.)

This is all important because there’s a real chance that should we ever get around to actually having an impeachment inquiry the people we’ll be hearing from is psychiatrists not the usual suspects in such matters. But all of this requires a series of things to happen for us to get to that point. His crackup has to be public. The economy has to tank. And whatever behavior he’s exhibiting has to be so severe that it’s difficult for MAGA talking heads to explain it away. If those three things don’t happen, lulz.

And, really, the crucial point is Pence. There’s a reason why Pence has all but ghosted the country. My guess is he feels not only does he think he may have to mop up a post-Trump America, but he wants to leverage the general relief on the part of the country to win a full term of his own. Only after he’s won the presidency in his own right can he turn around and be the big old dick that he really is in peace.

But let me stress, we’re no where near the type of crisis we would have to be for this to happen. We’re drifting towards it, but we have a ways to go. It could be six months from now before it happens, or it could be well into his dystopian second term. All I know is how we frame Trump has changed subtly in the last few days.

It used to be the Mueller Report, now it’s if and when Trump goes completely bonkers.

A Trump Tipping Point

Shelton Bumgarner

By Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The reason it’s so difficult to reason with MAGA is they really, really, REALLY like Trump’s policies. Add to that a basic difference in values, and debating with them about kids in cages or unnecessary tax cuts or whatever is kind of a moot point.

That’s the reason why Republicans were so nervous about the Mueller investigation. For a few months there, they were kinda freaking out that Mueller might find some “light treason” on the part of Trump. When that threat evaporated they let out a high sigh of relief and went back to counting young conservative Federal judges and tax cuts.

And, really, here’s the rub. If it weren’t for what has happened in the last few days, they could pretty comfortable that Trump would be re-elected. They could sit back enjoy the corruption and graft without a care in the world.

Then Trump started to show signs of losing his mind.

Now instead of light treason to worry about, they have to spin the president acting rather erratically. Trump has always acted erratically, but now it’s reached a tipping point of sorts. People are taking another look at Trump’s words. No longer is to be dismissed. People of all political stripes are honestly beginning to grow worried that Trump is losing his mind.

And so MAGA simply doesn’t say anything. Rich MAGA gets tax cuts and poor MAGA gets young hack conservative Federal judges. If they’re not talking about policy but Trump’s conspicuous and erratic behavior they really don’t have much to say.

Now being bonkers is not, in itself a “high crime or misdemeanor.” But what you do as a result of being bonkers can be. As I have said before, it would not surprise me that should we actually get around to an impeachment inquiry that there may come a point when the House is talking to shrinks about the president’s state of mind. The president’s erracting Tweeting could itself be one of the articles of impeachment.

But having said all that, Trump is an avatar for systemic problems in the American political system. As such, I honestly believe Trump could rip off all his clothes and screaming and naked in front of the White House and we would not convict him in the Senate.

So, really, I think it’s more a matter of what sort of Regency is established more than anything else. We’ve had one before with Edith Wilson ran the country for her husband Woodrow Wilson after he had a stroke. That was very private — and the one for Trump may very well be as well. If Trump finally lost it, he would have to do it in a manner that was televised or it didn’t happen.

It should be noted that if you wanted to get white knuckled in your political calculations there may come a point in the next few months if Trump does need a Regency that Republicans may decide that Pence has a much better chance of winning re-election than Trump does. And given how the Constitution is written, he would have the opportunity run for re-election AGAIN in 2024.

We’re no where near that point yet, however.

And maybe we never will be.

Impeachment & Trump Losing His Mind

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As you may know, the A-bombs used on Japan in 1945 were initially thought up in an effort to stop Germany. So, as we march towards what appears to be a rather useless attempt to impeach Trump there’s something we need to keep in mind — what if in the end it’s not Trump obstructing justice that gets him, but him having lost his mind?

Now, let me qualify that statement. The more one thinks about it, the more one realizes that a very specific set of circumstances brought down Nixon. One was the economy tanked. The other was — as I understand it — Nixon was having health problems that prevented him from simply burning the tapes on the front lawn of the White House and serving out his term.

So, for the whole bonkers thing to sink Trump in any meaningful manner, something similar would have to happen.

Trump would have to lose it publically
If Trump were to go King George III on us in private, we likely would never know. Someone would take over tweeting for him. His Regency would manage to prop him up every once in a while for public appearances and we would never know until long after he was out of office. So the first step is he has to go nuts publically in a conspicuous fashion. He’s edging towards that now. But if he finally goes off the deep end it has to be in a way that is public. Otherwise, nothing matters, lulz.

The Economy Would Have To Tank
For there to be any chance that Trump would leave office other than Jan. 20th 2025, the economy would have to tank in a meaningful manner. I don’t want this to happen, but it has to happen if Trump is to ever leave office. One way we might find ourselves in a crisis is if Trump tweets the stock market into crashing and there’s no way to deny that he, specifically is responsible for it happening.

The GOP Would Have To Ditch Trump
This is never going to happen. Trump could start WWIII via a tweet, and they would still support Trump. But there is a greater than zero chance that Republican Elders might see the 2020 election coming and in a white knuckled political move decided to ditch Trump for Pence. Pence is a conservative darling and actually cogent. I just don’t see this happening. But if things got very, very, very bad, it’s at least possible they might begin to think about it.

The great conundrum of all of this is we’re virtually in an election year. So for every one step we get closer to getting rid of Trump, there would be a huge amount of talk about just letting him serve out his term and waiting for him to “self impeach.” I think this is bullshit for a lot of reasons. Chief among being populist autocrats don’t lose.

Put another way, I think in the end Trump has a better chance of being removed not for being a criminal, but for being nuts.

We Need To Talk About Trump’s Declining Mental Facilities

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We are in a new era.

The first era of the Trump Administration was the period of time between the firing of James Comey and Mueller’s testimony before Congress. If Trump was not completely unqualified either in temperament or managerial abilities he probably would coast to an an easy re-election. He would simply be the precursor to his inevitable younger, more focused fascist successor.

And, yet, the recent 35 minute press conference where he rambled about American Jews not being loyal and said he was “The Chosen One” is a new era for him and his administration. Now that we’re not thinking about Mueller bringing Trump down, it’s beginning to sink in that Trump is not well mentally.

It’s only going to get worse, too.

At this point, the issue is does Trump lose it publicly or privately. If he loses it privately, we probably will never know that he’s catatonic in his bed. All his tweets will be written by someone pretending to be him. And the powerful people who crave his sweet, sweet authoritarian rule will figure out a way to fake him actually being cognizant. Only long after his second term is over will we learn that it was all a lie and Trump lost his mind.

That’s kind of the best case scenario for the Russians and MAGA plutocrats who want to drive America into a ditch and shit all over it. If Trump is giving a speech and he goes Howard Beale on us, that would be a different matter altogether. For a president to go completely bonkers is not something any of us is prepared for. It would cause a 9/11 level of crisis in the American government.

The crux of the issue is our best bet is some sort of informal Regency would be created. It’s not like we’re ever going to get rid of Trump, so he could quite literally go batshit insane on live TV and nothing of note would happen to him. There just isn’t the political will and America is just too divided.

That’s all I got, folks. But maybe this worst case scenario won’t happen. Maybe Trump will just be somewhat addled for the next few years. Maybe he’ll go the Reagan route and finish up his term, get to pick his successor and America will finally be a true fascist state.

Lulz!

An American Struggles With Brexit

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As you may know, on Oct. 31st, the UK is set to leave the EU. I feel as though the American press has done a piss-poor job of preparing Americans for what happens should there be a so-called “No Deal” Brexit.

Some of the things I’ve heard predicted about a No Deal Brexit are pretty alarming. The most worrisome aspect of it all is the UK seems to be slouching towards a No Deal Brexit in a rather meh fashion. Given that No Deal Brexit might mean the end of the UK in the first place, this is even more alarming.

The reason why No Deal Brexit might mean the end of the UK as we know it is Scotland may leave the UK after No Deal and then turn around and re-enter the EU. This kind of blows my mind. That the Queen wouldn’t step in to solve this whole issue is rather odd to this American. But, then, America does have a Mad King right now.

Meanwhile, there’s also something called the Back Stop. This issue, as I understand it, is about the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. My heart breaks at how mind-bogglingly stupid all of this is in the context of Ireland. I mean, did no one think about this when they were voting to leave the EU?

Anyway, for Americans, all of this is significant for one reason — the economy. Right now, the American economy is doing fine. But if No Deal Brexit slows the global economy down significantly, Trump — who is barely holding on to his sanity — may finally go Capt. Queeg on us. So, in a roundabout way, there is at least the possibility that Trump’s ultimate fate may involve the Brits figuring out how to avoid No Deal Brexit.

But, I have to be honest, I see one of two eventualities at this point — either there’s No Deal Brexit, or they kick the issue down the road again for a few months. There just doesn’t seem to be any political will to fix this issue in Great Britain.

I have to stress, however, that I’m a clueless American. What do I know.

How To Defeat MAGA, If Not Trump

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, I fear it’s too late to defeat Trump himself. Not only is he too much of an avatar for white identity politics, both plutocrats and Russians have a vested interest in him winning a second term. So, he’s going to win and we just have to accept the consequences.

Having said that, this is how we in the long-term defeat MAGA. I give MAGA a pass this election cycle because there’s a key aspect to my plan that we simply don’t have time to implement.

That key feature is getting someone like Jon Stewart run for high office such as Senator or Governor. We need someone like Stewart in 2024 because the only way to defeat a bully is through humor. Stewart is the perfect embodiment of Leftist rage and he can make people laugh. After the dystopia of Trump, people want to laugh again. And Stewart is the only viable person I can think of who could do it in 2024.

But one other piece of advice. If you’re dealing with someone who loves drama like Trump, you need to keep your eyes on the prize. You need to focus on your agenda without being distracted. Pick a few goals and try to pin them down on them.

That’s why, on a personal level, I at least want to try to stop being so angry at MAGA. Should the occasion arise where I talk to them about politics, I am going to calmly and methodically ask them a series of questions. I will only do this after I’ve given the opportunity to get whatever ranting they need to get out of their system, out. Of course, the flaw in this is if I do one-up a MAGA person, they’re more likely than not just going to get mad and tell me to fuck off in a huff.

But anyway, I don’t know how well I articulated that vision. You get the general idea, I guess.

Reagan’s Dementia Versus Trump Being Generally Bonkers

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The Iran-contra scandal hit me at just the right time growing up. It was the first big political event of my life and I read as much as I could about it. The thing about Ronald Reagan at the time of Iran-contra was there were two problems. One problem was that as the son of an alcoholic, Reagan hated conflict with a passion. The other problem was he was really old and his mental faculties were deteriorating. The first problem is what allowed Iran-contra to happen in the first place. The second only made the first issue worse.

At the time, there was impeachment talk. And there was talk about Reagan being too feeble mentally to continue being president. But in the end, the economy was too strong, he was too popular and he said he was sorry on TV. So, he was able to coast through his second term.

Now, contrast that with what we have going on with Trump. While the economy is doing well, Trump is nonetheless very unpopular. What’s more I feel the now-infamous “choppertalk” press conference recently where he said he was “the chosen one” and looked up at the sun is going to mark a new era in the Trump Administration.

I say this because it was appears to be something of a tipping point. The way people think of Trump’s mental state has changed a little bit. For a long time, we’ve been told to take Trump’s craziness “seriously but not literally.” His crazy comments the other day were a first in the sense that it’s difficult to defend them, no matter how hard you try. That Trump would use an anti-Semitic trope against America’s Jews is just weird. It’s difficult to say he is playing 8 dimensional chess on this one. I’ve seen at least one talking head on cable news try, but I don’t know how successful they were.

Now, I say the following with the some caveats. One is, authoritarian populists don’t lose. So, even if Trump becomes completely catatonic, Pence and Ivanka will carry him around Weekend At Bernie’s style for next six years if need be. In other words, in the event Trump finally loses his mind, we’re stuck with him. Because Trump is an avatar for white identity politics, he could effectively be in a straightjacket and you still could not get 67 Senators to convict him. And given how disorganized the Resistance is, I don’t see Trump losing in a general election, either.

So, what I see happening is various degrees of a Regency. Either it will be common knowledge that a handful of people are running the executive for Trump, or it will be done in secret for as long as possible. They’ll just wait out the clock and until it’s seen as a moot point.

Anyway, given our history with Reagan, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Trump would effectively be mentally incapacitated and nothing will happen.

Lulz?

Worst Case Scenario: What If Trump Finally Loses His Mind?

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now, let me get some things out of the way. First, I don’t think the 25th Amendment will ever be invoked for Trump. Second, I think no matter what happens, Trump is going to win re-election for various systemic reasons that can’t be avoided or fixed.

So, let’s run the scenario. Sometime, maybe soon, Trump finally loses it to such an extent that it is obvious to even the most reluctant of observers. I think the first sign we would have is Trump would make few — if any — public apperences.

He would just vanish.

Depending on how bad his mental deterioration was, I think we might gradually start to see Pence more often. But I doubt anyone would admit that Trump was actually heavily medicated and in bed. In fact, I believe Trump would win re-election under these conditions. They would figure out some way to prop him up long enough to get sworn in and that would be it.

It would become something of a state secret that Ivanka, Jared and Pence were, in fact now running the country. So much so that I think the big mystery of Trump’s second term would be where he was most of the time.

The only weakness to this plot, of course, would be if Trump flipped out in public in some way. If he finally lost it in public in a conspicuous fashion, then that would be a different story altogether. That, in itself, would be a huge crisis. Some pretty unprecedented things might happen if that was the case. It would be a huge crisis if we all knew that Trump was no longer functioning as a rational human being and yet we did not have the political will to do anything about it.

If that happened, I think Trump would remain president, but Pence would be the de facto president, serving in his name. There is just no political will to impeach Trump or to use the 25th Amendment. And, like I said, I think Trump will win re-election even if he has, in fact, completely lost his mind.

But if Trump did finally lose it, I think Regency would be comprised of Ivanka, Jared, Pence, Miller and maybe a few other people. But Trump would still be president. They would just rule in his name.

And there’s not a damn thing we can do about it.

You Just Have To Believe, Redux

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I have been deleting a lot of the videos I did about the novel I’m writing because they’ve garnered too much attention. I just don’t feel like having to worry about some Hollywood screenwriter somehow cribbing enough from the videos to write a screenplay inspired by what I’m working on.

Now, I know this is rather paranoid. But only the paranoid survive. All I have is my belief in myself. I would prefer they come out with a hack rip off of my novel’s concept sooner rather than later so I can at least not have wasted a lot of time on it.

But if this were to happen, I’m sure it would come out just about the time I want to sell the book, if not later. That I’m this paranoid is even crazier given that I have spoken in rather vague terms about what exactly I’m working on.

I just can’t handle seeing a lot of people looking the videos in my Webstats. It makes me extremely uneasy because I don’t know _why_ they’re looking at a post, just that they’re looking at it.

Anyway. The last few days I’ve kind of been resting my mind. I think I’m going to finally get back to working on the novel very soon. No later than tomorrow, maybe. It’s just the entire country is on vacation and I think I sense that enough to not feel like doing much work, either.